In Part 1 of our 32 bets for 32 teams ahead of the NFL season, we went up and down the AFC, looking for value in both the team futures and the player prop market; contemplating the statistical ceiling for some, and breaking down why others might not meet expectations.
For Part 2, our attention turns to the NFC. Here is my favorite bet for all 16 teams:
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Arizona Cardinals
Last season, we could feel positive statistical regression coming for Trey McBride touchdowns, as he was lined at 4.5 after a 2024 season where he scored just twice on 111 receptions.
McBride scored 11 times.
The market’s done a better job adjusting to McBride than NFL defenses have, lining him at 6.5 touchdowns this season, but the Cardinals do have more red zone options this season. As a model of consistency with between five and 12 receptions in all but one game in 2025, and wanting to have a piece of McBride in some way, we’ll bet on him to hit 100 receptions for a third straight season.
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Bet: Trey McBride over 97.5 receptions (-115, DraftKings)
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons took a big swing drafting Michael Penix Jr. in 2024, but it took less than two seasons for the concern over that move to come to fruition. Not only was he not a ready-made product as an older rookie, but his third torn ACL was the unfortunate answer to the questions about his durability. As a result, the Falcons signed Tua Tagovailoa on the cheap, hoping that one of them will have a career renaissance this season, but Kevin Stefanski brought Tommy Rees with him as offensive coordinator, and he has no track record for reclamation projects.
Defensively, the plan was that two first-round pass-rushers picked in 2025 would cause havoc for opponents who then had to throw into a secondary with A.J. Terrell and Jessie Bates. Jalon Walker tore his ACL in training camp, and James Pearce Jr. was suspended for the first half of the season.
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The Falcons are lined at 7.5 because there are game-breakers in place on both sides of the ball, but the players needed to put them in the best place to break games aren’t there.
Bet: Falcons under 7.5 wins (-140, DraftKings)
Carolina Panthers
It’s weird to say that the starting quarterback and the 2025 Offensive Rookie of the Year need to find a better connection, but Tetairoa McMillan only caught 57.3% of the passes thrown to him last season and went without a touchdown in nine of his first 10 games. Plus, that catch percentage actually went down in the final seven games of the season, a span where McMillan had five of his seven TDs.
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If Bryce Young and McMillan find a better connection in their second season together, that should translate to at least the same number of touchdowns for someone who profiles as the prototypical red zone target.
Bet: Tetairoa McMillan over 6.5 TDs (-105, DraftKings)
Chicago Bears
We’ll mini-spoil one of THE WINDOW’s cornerstone preseason betting articles, with a long-shot play on who might lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns — a category notorious for having surprise contenders.
McBride made a run at catching the most touchdowns from the tight end position, tying for second in the league with 11. Colston Loveland could do the same this season.
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As a rookie, Loveland racked up the targets (48) in the Bears’ final four games last season, and actually tied Rome Odunze and DJ Moore for the team receiving TD lead. With Moore gone, and both Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson talking a big game about Chicago’s offense this season, this is a worthy look at a massive long shot.
Bet: Colston Loveland most receiving touchdowns in the NFL (60-1, DraftKings)
CINCINNATI, OH – AUGUST 22: Chicago Bears tight end Colston Loveland (84) carries the ball during the preseason game between the Chicago Bears and the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium on August 22, 2026 in Cincinnati, OH.
(Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Dallas Cowboys
If this happens, it will probably be insufferable — but, should a defensive overhaul work, featuring new defensive coordinator Christian Parker coming over from the Eagles, there’s more than a non-zero chance that the Cowboys have a really good season.
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We already know that Dak Prescott’s numbers will be there, so there’s no need to sell anyone on whether he’d be the lead Cowboys’ candidate for MVP, that is, if Dallas does win 12-plus games, the NFC East, and earns at least a top-two seed in the NFC.
Classic Cowboys media attention will drive Prescott’s candidacy past the top six choices on the oddsboard, all of whom come from the AFC.
Bet: Dak Prescott to win MVP (12-1)
Detroit Lions
We had an under for a star quarterback in our AFC article, based on the double-premise of: A team being in more positive game-states than last season, while also expressing concern about injuries depressing their counting stats this season.
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In the NFC, the “pro” case for a Lions bounce-back season is how soft Detroit’s schedule is, and if being the lookahead-line favorite in 14 of their first 15 games (and often by more than a touchdown) translates to fourth-quarter leads, Jared Goff will be in less shootouts this season.
On the negative side, the Lions’ offensive line is a far cry from when it was one of the best units in the NFL, buying time for Goff to find receivers down the field during his four straight seasons of 4,400-plus passing yards, and keeping him upright well enough not to miss a game.
Bet: Jared Goff under 4,099.5 passing yards (-110, Bet365)
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Green Bay Packers
The Packers didn’t fire Matt LaFleur, which, for a few days, seemed very much in play after another unceremonious postseason exit.
Green Bay might be thrilled with an opportunity to blow a lead in the playoffs this season.
Micah Parsons will miss at least the first four games as part of his return from an ACL tear, which compromises a defense that’s invested in him being the centerpiece.
Offensively, a great first season from Jordan Love set expectations that haven’t been met since. A once-deep skill-position group has thinned out with wide receiver departures, Josh Jacobs’ off-field issues and Tucker Kraft dealing with his own ACL rehab.
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In a tough division, and LaFleur potentially on his last chance, getting plus-money on the Packers to miss the playoffs is the way to fade Green Bay.
Bet: Packers to miss the playoffs (+122, DraftKings)
Minnesota Vikings
In 2024, Sam Darnold was getting so much support in the media for Comeback Player of the Year, voters had to be reminded that the award is not supposed to go to players who come back from merely being bad.
Kyler Murray was ostensibly hurt last season, which creates just enough plausible deniability for if he ends up being an equally good fit as Darnold was in Kevin O’Connell’s offense (4,319 yards, 35 TDs).
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Plus, Murray has never thrown for 4,000 yards or 30-plus touchdowns, so if he can replicate Darnold’s season on a Vikings team that had nine wins with awful quarterback play last season, Murray will be the Comeback Player of the Year.
Bet: Kyler Murray to win Comeback Player of the Year (+600, DraftKings)
Los Angeles Rams
It’s not often a No. 2 running back is widely available in the season-long prop markets, but the line between Kyren Williams and Blake Corum is starting to blur. In 2024, when Corum was a rookie, he merely spelled Williams, getting out-carried 316 to 58 (and it was only that close because Williams missed a game).
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Last season, though, the split tightened, to 259-145 (64.1% to 35.9%) — and even more in the final 11 games (164-116, or 58.5% to 41.5%).
For the season, Williams had just three carries that went for more than 20 yards. Corum had five after the Rams Week 8 bye, along with five of his six touchdowns, on the way to a higher yards-per-carry average for the season.
Corum’s one minor injury to Williams away from having the carry split tilted his way for the season, and between his explosiveness and the Rams’ penchant for handing it off at the goal line, Corum scoring more than 10 touchdowns isn’t out of the question.
Bet: Blake Corum: 10-plus TDs (+500, DraftKings)
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New Orleans Saints
The longest shot of the year is reliant on the ball-knowers on the Protector of the Year panel, made up of former offensive linemen.
It might be a chicken-and-egg thing, but if Kellen Moore and Tyler Shough can take the Saints up a notch from 238.4 passing yards per game and 10 touchdowns in 10 starts, that could either bring attention to the rest of the offense — including the line, or maybe good O-line play would be the reason for a possible leap? Especially since Shough was sacked 31 times in his 10 games last season.
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Either way, Erik McCoy returns after missing most of 2025, but, before getting hurt, he had the best pass-blocking grade among all centers, according to PFF. And that was one season after having the best overall grade in 2024, and ranking fifth in 2023.
It’s the longest shot of our 32 bets, but McCoy’s been good enough for long enough that he could be the recognized MVP on an improved offense.
Bet: Erik McCoy to win Protector of the Year (175-1, Bet365)
New York Giants
The Giants would love Jaxson Dart to go against his admirable instincts and get down, or out of bounds, when he scrambles, but we’d be remiss not to note that he’s more of an injury candidate than most others at his position. That’s why the Giants have Jameis Winston, just in case.
Even when healthy, Dart averaged just 189.3 passing yards per game in his rookie season. If he managed to play all 17 games this season, that would just barely crawl over his yardage total.
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With the hope for Malik Nabers to be running at full speed early, the assumption that the New York’s offense is going to take off with John Harbaugh as head coach and Matt Nagy as offensive coordinator this season seems overly optimistic.
If Dart misses so much as one game, he’ll need to average 200 passing yards in the other 16 games, and a 15-game season would require 210 YPG. That’s more than Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Aaron Rodgers, Bryce Young, Cam Ward and several other veteran quarterbacks managed last season.
Bet: Jaxson Dart under 3,150.5 passing yards (-115, DraftKings)
Philadelphia Eagles
Given his talent level and the defense he plays on, if Jalen Carter is never at least in contention for Defensive Player of the Year, we’re going to feel like Ben Affleck’s character, at the construction site, telling Matt Damon’s Will Hunting what a waste it would be if he never fullfils the promise of his God-given ability,
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The favorite, Myles Garrett, is now with the Rams, which actually hurts his candidacy, as voters may be less likely to reward the result of an obviously stacked defensive line, making this award category more wide open than many think.
Bet: Jalen Carter to win Defensive Player of the Year (25-1)
San Francisco 49ers
As part of the 49ers’ efforts to bleed as much as they can out of the end of their once-great core’s careers, they added the once-great Mike Evans to a receiving corps that has the betting market expecting something from the long-time Buccaneer.
I’m expecting relatively little.
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With 11 straight seasons of at laest 1,000 receiving yards to start his career, Evans was once reliable to hit that milestone. If that’s why he’s lined into the 800s after a season where he played eight games and had 368 yards, then that’s an opportunity to fade a future Hall-of-Famer who’s further down the road than any of the Niners one might worry about getting hurt this season, and already suffering from a soft tissue (groin) injury.
Bet: Mike Evans under 824.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings)
Seattle Seahawks
It’s the NFC version of a Defensive Player of the Year long-shot bet we made in the AFC edition, as we look at another dominant cornerback on a highly-regarded defense.
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Devon Witherspoon is used in a variety of ways by the Seahawks, adding a Super Bowl sack to his resume as a top cover-corner and one of the best tacklers at the position as well.
Seattle was a surprise contender through much of last season, but with voters ready to respect its defense this season, and the sheer number of pass-rushers splitting the impact of the defensive front, if the ball finds Witherspoon for a couple of extra splash plays, he’ll get attention for DPOY.
Bet: Devon Witherspoon to win Defensive Player of the Year (+5500, FanDuel)
JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA – AUGUST 28: Baker Mayfield #6 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers prior to their preseason matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Stadium on August 28, 2026 in Jacksonville, Florida.
(Parker S. Freedman via Getty Images)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
As an exercise, draw a line on the oddsboard where you think the cut off is for teams that are capable of winning the NFC. Last season, you likely would have drawn that line north of the Seahawks.
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This year, you can hit the 10th choice and still just be getting to a favorite for a division, which means the market is not just down on Tampa Bay, but it doesn’t think much of the other three teams in the NFC South.
Baker Mayfield, a healthier skill-position group with better defined roles and a top-tier offensive line can take advantage of the other three teams in the division, on the way to stretching last season’s 8-2 start to something similar over 17 games — especially if Todd Bowles’ defensive youth movement works better than expected.
A high playoff seed is just as possible as what Seattle accomplished last season, making it worth the long-shot price on a team with as good a path as any to the Super Bowl.
Bet: Buccaneers to win NFC (22-1, DraftKings)
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Washington Commanders
Simply put, now that Laremy Tunsil is out for an extended period of time, the Commanders offensive line isn’t going to be able to protect Jayden Daniels, and there’s no reason to believe last year’s poor defense will be transformed by the addition of Sonny Styles, a rookie inside linebacker.
Against a schedule that is more difficult than it appears at first blush, getting to a Week 11 Monday-nighter at home against the Bengals at 4-5 would be an accomplishment. Even then, Washington would need to split its final eight games, which include Houston, at Minnesota, at Jacksonville, and at Dallas, after that primetime tilt with Cincinnati.
Bet: Commanders under 7.5 wins (-125, DraftKings)
You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo! Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.
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