Every player has a range of outcomes. Some are tighter than others. Some are wide enough that the difference between the ceiling and floor can completely change your season.
That is what makes these five players interesting.
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Each one has a realistic path to beating his current Yahoo cost. Each one also has something in the profile that can go sideways. So instead of just calling them values or fades, let’s look at the best-case scenario, the worst-case scenario and where I ultimately land.
Note: ADP references are based on current Yahoo drafts. Scoring is half-PPR.
Kenneth Walker III, RB, Chiefs — Yahoo ADP: 16.3 (RB10)
Best case: We all know this Kansas City offense has not looked quite the same since the days when Kareem Hunt was really rolling out of this backfield. The Chiefs have had good running backs since then, but they have not had this type of explosive runner in his prime. Going out and getting Kenneth Walker III tells me something about what they believe he can bring to this offense. He does not need to become Christian McCaffrey as a receiver. Give him the majority of the rushing work, involve him in the screen game and let Patrick Mahomes create scoring opportunities around him. Walker’s ceiling pushes close to 20 half-PPR points per game. That is legitimate league-winning upside.
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Worst case: Kansas City is thinking much more about January and February than your fantasy team. The Chiefs have multiple backs they can rotate, and the goal may be keeping Walker healthy for another Super Bowl run rather than seeing how many touches he can handle in September. Brashard Smith and the other backs remain involved, Walker loses some passing-down work and suddenly you’re getting a good running back season instead of a great fantasy season.
My prediction: I’m trusting why Kansas City brought him in. I’m trusting Eric Bieniemy and I’m trusting that this offense needs Walker to be good. I have him projected as my RB6 while Yahoo drafters are taking him as the RB10. That’s a gap I’m willing to attack. Walker is one of my favorite Round 2 running back selections this year.
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Omarion Hampton, RB, Chargers — Yahoo ADP: 18.6 (RB12)
Best case: Hampton was already really good as a rookie. In the games he played, he averaged more than 15 fantasy points per game while showing exactly why the Chargers invested a first-round pick in him. He’s big enough to handle volume, catches the ball well and now gets Mike McDaniel designing the run game around Justin Herbert. There is a lot to like here. My ceiling projection has Hampton around 1,850 scrimmage yards with 15 total touchdowns and roughly 17.5 half-PPR points per game. That is a top-eight fantasy running back outcome.
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Worst case: We probably need to listen to what McDaniel is telling us. He’s talked about this being a three-headed backfield with Hampton, Keaton Mitchell and Kimani Vidal. Maybe that’s coach speak. Maybe it isn’t. If Mitchell and Vidal are on the field more than Hampton managers want, his touch ceiling gets squeezed quickly. Add in an offensive line injury or two and suddenly that RB12 draft price becomes much harder to return.
My prediction: I’m buying Hampton even at the elevated cost. Sometimes good players in good offenses are worth paying for. He has the size, the receiving ability and a scheme that fits what he does well. Herbert should keep this offense moving and give Hampton plenty of scoring opportunities. There is committee risk here, but I’m willing to bet that the best back ultimately gets the most work. Hampton is one of the young running backs I’m willing to be aggressive on.
Christian Watson, WR, Packers — Yahoo ADP: 67.7 (WR28)
Best case: Watson finally gets volume to match his efficiency. In 10 games last season, he produced 611 yards and six touchdowns while posting a 17.8-yard average depth of target and 2.62 yards per route run. Romeo Doubs is gone, creating an opportunity for Watson to command the largest target share of his career. His ceiling projection reaches 111 targets, 75 receptions, 1,351 yards and nine touchdowns. That is about 13.3 half-PPR points per game and a massive return on a sixth-round investment.
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Worst case: The volume never arrives. Watson has never reached 70 targets in a season and has played 14, nine, 15 and 10 games across his first four years. Green Bay also still has Tucker Kraft, Matthew Golden and Jayden Reed competing for opportunities. My median gives Watson 99 targets, 62 receptions, 938 yards and six touchdowns. That’s 9.5 half-PPR points per game and WR30 in my projections. If he misses more time or falls back into the 60-75 target range, the weekly variance becomes brutal.
My prediction: This is exactly the type of range-of-outcomes bet I like at this point in drafts. Watson’s median is roughly fair value. That’s not why I’m drafting him. I’m drafting him because there aren’t many WR28’s with a believable path to 1,300-plus yards and close to double-digit touchdowns. I’m willing to accept the volatility for that type of ceiling.
Rome Odunze, WR, Bears — Yahoo ADP: 67.5 (WR29)
Best case: I think people have been a little too hard on Odunze. He was playing really good football early last season before the year got away from him. He still finished with 661 yards and six touchdowns in only 12 games while averaging 10.3 half-PPR points per game. Now he gets another season with Caleb Williams in Ben Johnson’s offense. Luther Burden III has also missed valuable time this offseason, giving Odunze even more opportunity to continue building chemistry with Williams. My ceiling projection has him at 117 targets, 75 receptions, 1,070 yards and 10 touchdowns. That’s a strong WR2 season at a WR29 cost.
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Worst case: Colston Loveland becomes that dude. That’s probably the biggest concern for me. If Loveland immediately turns into the primary middle-of-the-field target and Burden is better than Odunze managers want him to be, suddenly there are a lot of mouths to feed. Cole Kmet is still around, too. Odunze can improve as a player without the fantasy numbers exploding if Chicago spreads the football around.
My prediction: I’m bullish on Rome this year. My median has him at 110 targets, 70 receptions, 950 yards and seven touchdowns, which puts him at WR24 in my rankings. Yahoo is drafting him WR29. I’ll take that discount. The Bears offense should be good and I want exposure to the receiver who has already spent two years building chemistry with Caleb Williams. At nearly the same cost as Watson, Odunze is the safer bet while Watson gives you the wider ceiling.
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jaguars — Yahoo ADP: 83.9 (WR33)
Best case: We decide 2025 was the outlier. Thomas looked like a future superstar as a rookie when he caught 87 passes for 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns. Last season was almost the complete opposite. His numbers fell to 48 receptions, 707 yards and two scores. The best-case scenario is simple: Jacksonville gets him back to doing what he does best. Push him vertically, let Trevor Lawrence attack downfield and stop forcing Thomas into a role that doesn’t maximize his skill set. If we get something closer to Rookie BTJ, he can destroy a WR33 price.
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Worst case: Parker Washington actually becomes Jacksonville’s WR1. That’s not something I’m just saying for the sake of creating a downside case. I currently project Washington to lead this receiver room with 127 targets, 78 catches, 1,017 yards and seven touchdowns. Thomas sits behind him in my median projection at 104 targets, 61 receptions, 893 yards and four touchdowns. Jakobi Meyers and Travis Hunter also remain involved. If that target hierarchy holds, Thomas could once again be more volatile deep threat than weekly fantasy starter.
My prediction: This is the toughest one for me because the player has already shown us a ceiling that can make the current price look ridiculous. But I have to respect what the current role is telling me. Thomas is WR41 in my projections while Yahoo is drafting him WR33. If he falls another round, I’ll gladly bet on the talent and the possibility that 2025 was just a bad season. At his current price, he’s the easiest fade of these five players.
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