‘Football 301′ predicts AFC South win totals, where Trevor Lawrence’s Jags are a regression candidate and the Texans’ defense is dominant

Recently on “Football 301,” Nate Tice and Matt Harmon broke down the AFC South outlook for 2026, identifying their standout players, X factors and gave their win total predictions.

While both hosts strongly considered the Jaguars to repeat as champions, they ultimately agreed on the Texans thanks to their league-best defense and an offense good enough to capitalize.

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Below, we break down their projected win total picks for each squad:

Houston Texans

Win total projections:

• Matt Harmon: 11-6 or 12-5

Harmon and Tice are forecasting the Texans to reclaim the division crown on the strength of their dominant defense. The Texans have “the best secondary in football and a suffocating front, especially after adding Reed Blankenship, Logan Hal, and rookie Kayden McDonald,” according to Tice.

While C.J. Stroud’s regression remains a popular talking point, he didn’t receive much help from the offensive line or run game last season and Houston still reached the divisional round of the playoffs.

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“Can this be the 24th best o-line and 22nd best run game? If so, that’s a quantum leap,” Harmon said.

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Jacksonville Jaguars

Win total projections:

The Jaguars broke out in 2025, winning eight games down the stretch to win the AFC South at 13-4. They even held a 20-17 lead with four minutes left in the wild-card round before Josh Allen dashed their hopes. Tice and Harmon are confident in Jacksonville, though they see the Jags as regression candidates.

Between Trevor Lawrence, Parker Washington and two-way threat Travis Hunter, the Jags have plenty of game-breakers, but the hosts agree, the offensive line is the team’s key to success.

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“If this can be a top-15 line, the offense is nearly unstoppable,” Harmon said.

Indianapolis Colts

Win total projections:

In 2025 the Colts fielded a historically great offense in the first half before the bottom fell out. Then Daniel Jones tore an Achilles four games later. The Colts doubled down this offseason, bringing back Jones and reuniting him with slot maven Keenan Allen, but Harmon and Tice are skeptical that running it back will deliver the same results as last season’s first half.

“If you’re just like looking toward a moment in the past that you feel like you need to just get back to, that’s … not really how it works,” Tice said.

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Win total projections:

No team in the AFC South has a lower baseline or more uncertainty. Head coach Robert Saleh and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll inherit 2025’s worst offensive unit with Cam Ward, who is a huge question mark after a dreadful rookie year. Both hosts are skeptical of Ward’s fit in Daboll’s “spread and shred” scheme, especially after a lackluster preseason debut.

“They’re leaning into Cam Ward’s worst tendencies — too aggressive, too much gun, too few layups,” Harmon said. “And their offensive line after Dan Moore is a shrug — or worse.”

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For more NFL insight, tune into “Football 301 on Apple, Spotify or YouTube.