To say that there are high expectations for the Houston Texans this season is to understate the obvious. After a less-than-satisfying end to a strong 2025-26 season, Houston did a lot to shore up the team strengths (re-signing/extending key defensive stalwarts) and spent a lot of draft capital/free agent dollars to try to once against improve the offensive line, as well as adding weapons via trade (David Montgomery). Houston will look to not only reclaim the AFC South Division title but to finally breakthrough the Division Round ceiling.
There is a lot of reason for optimism. However, any Houston fan knows all too well that the negatives can easily come to the forefront. Promise and pressure can sometimes be too much. With that in mind, here are some pre-mortem causes should Houston’s season fails to live up to its hopes and dreams.
The fall of CJ Stroud: No Texan entered the offseason facing more questions about his future than QB CJ Stroud. After a rookie season for the ages, Stroud has spent the last two seasons struggling to live up to that opening act. It is not as if he has been horrible, with playoff wins in each of his three seasons. It is also not as if it is all on him, as the team has struggled mightily to provide a consistently solid offensive line, leaving him with one of the worst run games in the league and under a significant amount of duress. However, if the adage “you are only as good as your last performance” is a truth, then Stroud left the world with the worst version of himself. That 4 INT performance in New England likely prevented him from signing a big contract extension. The team has not sat idly by, revamping the offensive line and bringing in better running back talent in David Montgomery. In theory, improvements in protection and the running game should only help Stroud and the offense writ large.
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Yet, what of the psychological? While Stroud’s sack numbers were down last season, his pressure rate was still among the worst in the league. Also, he had arguably two of his worst ever QB games in the two playoff game in Pittsburgh and New England. The season may start out well, but what happens after that first bad play? The first INT? Can he still shake it off and more forward, or will the negativity build on itself? If it does, and Stroud can’t get out of his own head, then all of the moves the team made will prove null and void. This would then begat some very difficult questions within Reliant Stadium about the future of Stroud and the franchise.
The offense doesn’t help Stroud at all: There is always the possibility that the offseason offensive upgrade are not, in fact, upgrades. Branden Smith and Wyatt Teller, in theory, are superior OLs to the men they replaced. However, Smith is overcoming some significant injuries and Teller is not the same guard he was a couple of seasons ago. Ed Ingram arguably earned his extension, but what if his performance was a fluke? Also, the whole offensive line, even with Ingram and Ersary, was not all that great. Additionally, even as Caley did improve somewhat as a play-caller, he was far from perfect in his play-calls, and the offensive line coaching and performance may not completely improve.
The running game is also tied into the Oline performance, but even then, the RBs are no sure bet. Montgomery should be a strong starter, but it is telling that Detroit let him go, as he had fallen behind Gibbs on the depth chart. What if Detroit dumped damaged goods on Houston? Marks showcased toughness most didn’t think he had, but he did not make it through a lot of games unscathed. Marks works better as a third-down/change-of-pace back. He could close out games, but he doesn’t profile as a back that can do that game in and game out for a long stretch of time. Maybe 2025-26 is different with a healthy Joe Mixon, but the team really needs Montgomery to be the best version of himself.
The injury gods claim key defenders: Last season, Houston had arguably the best defense in the league. Their DE duo (Anderson and Hunter) terrorized QBs to no end, and the secondary of Stingley, Lassiter, Bullock and Pitre constituted their own no-fly zone. Aside from talent, a key reason was a lack of significant injuries to the defensive starters. Anderson finally played a full regular season, having missed games in his 1st two seasons. Of the main starters, only Pitre (3 games), Lassiter (1) and Al-Shaair (1), missed any games due to injury. Such fortune does not remain constant. The big reason why Houston’s defense was so dominant was that their best players, who are among the best at their respective positions, actually played. Take Anderson, Hunter, Stingley, Lassiter, et al off the field for multiple games, and it is likely that the squad would have seen a massive drop off in defensive performance. With so much of Houston’s hopes riding on that defense, their stars must stay on the field. If they suffer any significant injuries, especially to the main stars, that could upend a lot of assumptions, making Houston’s quest to move to the conference title game that much more difficult.
Another bad start to the year. Last season, Houston got off to an 0-3 start. While remarkable that they went 12-2 to end the regular season, that is not something the squad can count on again. The schedule does not include the NFC West, but there are no shortages of challenges on the calendar. Houston does not exactly ease into the season, for while they have 3 of their first 4 games at home, those home games are against Buffalo, Cincinnati, and Dallas. Those games are winnable, but those teams possess some of the most dangerous offenses in the league. If the defense can’t find its footing and the offense is still playing like it is 2025, then the team could be looking at another bad start. Yes, Houston has bounced back from a 0-3, 1-4 type start to get the playoffs, but in a competitive AFC, that is not the path to long-term success.
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The Black Swan: Clearly, we don’t know what it might be. In retrospect, it will be obvious, but right now, it is hard to predict where the Black Swan event might hit, if it hits at all. Previous versions for this team involved everything from injuries from [KITTEN] to unexpected player legal woes to a pandemic to an over-his-head-not-good-with-power-football-Ayatollah-wannabe. However, one can’t discount a “Black Swan” occurrence.
Could a season with high expectations disintegrate ala 2013? Always possible. This is not all-inclusive, nor a prediction of what will happen. However, if multiple conditions presented here happen, success might not be a part of the upcoming Texans’ season.
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