Redlegs: Mariners vs. Reds Series Preview

With a 50-50 record through 100 games, the Mariners have become the embodiment of that famous Tommy Lasorda quote. They’ve got 62 games left to prove how good or bad they really are. There were glimpses of that competent roster last weekend; Cole Young blasted two huge home runs, Julio Rodriguez collected a walk-off hit in his first game off the IL, and the pitching was mostly solid. Now the trick is to string a few series wins together to build some momentum as the season barrels towards the trade deadline.

It took a historic collapse from the Mets, but the Reds made a surprise playoff appearance last year. It didn’t last long — they were trounced in the Wild Card round by the Dodgers — but it seemed like something promising to build on. Cincinnati got off to a really strong start to this year, but the team has crashed after the first month of the season. Since May 1, the Reds’ 24-42 record is the worst in baseball. There are a few bright spots around the roster; Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart are a solid pair to build a lineup around and Hunter Greene and Chase Burns are a flamethrowing duo to lead the starting rotation. The rest of the roster is rather lackluster, and the wave of young talent that had been working its way through their farm system a few years ago hasn’t panned out at all.

Elly De La Cruz is one of the most dynamic, young players in baseball. He possesses an exciting combination of speed and power, and he’s managed to take a pretty big step forward at the plate this year. After an excellent debut last September, Sal Stewart has continued to pound big league pitching in his first full season. His contact quality isn’t great as it was last year, but he’s still been able to crush 20 home runs during his rookie campaign. The lineup goes downhill from there. JJ Bleday is in the middle of a nice bounce ball season and Spencer Steer has turned into a solid utility guy, but Eugeno Suárez is really showing his age now and TJ Friedl and Ke’Bryan Hays simply can’t hit enough to make up for their solid defense.

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A fun note: the two position player prospects sent to Cincinnati in the Luis Castillo deal are finally on the major league roster together. Noelvi Marte has had a rough, up-and-down start to his career that included a PED suspension last year. Edwin Arroyo was just recently made his major league debut last month, though he looks pretty overmatched by big league pitching.

Probable Pitchers

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It seemed like Andrew Abbott had taken a big step forward last year; his strikeout-to-walk ratio improved to 3.47 and his ERA sat below three, even if his FIP was a little higher at 3.66. He hasn’t been able to replicate that success this season. His strikeout-to-walk ratio has fallen to 1.75 thanks to a huge jump in walk rate. He’s still putting his fastball in the zone a ton, but he’s trying to get batters to chase his secondary offerings outside the zone and it just isn’t working. He’s also suffered from a pretty significant increase in hard contact allowed — contact management was a big reason why he was so successful last year. None of the steps backwards are that big on their own, but taken all together and it’s a recipe for a pretty uneven season.

Chase Burns is one of the most exciting young pitchers in baseball, and he just earned a huge pay day. Last week, the Reds signed him to a seven-year extension to keep him in Cincinnati until 2034. It’s easy to see why they like him so much. He easily reaches triple-digits with his fastball and possesses one of the nastiest sliders in baseball. The depth of his repertoire is pretty limited — right now, he’s working with the Spencer Strider two-pitch special — but he’s dabbled with a changeup and a curveball, though neither of those pitches is ready for primetime. It doesn’t really matter right now because his slider is so unhittable, and his fastball so difficult to square up, that he’s thriving without the need for a third or fourth pitch.

Brady Singer is in the midst of the worst season of his career. Yes, his ERA isn’t as high as it was in 2023 when it was over five, but his peripherals have all taken a dive this season and his FIP has shot up to a career-high as a result. He’s lost a full tick off his fastball velocity, further degrading an already mediocre pitch. His two breaking balls are decent enough, especially against right-handed batters, but neither is very effective against opposite-handed opponents. He could really use a changeup to keep lefties at bay; instead, he’s tried to add a cutter to his pitch mix but that pitch has been crushed.

The Big Picture:

The Mariners gained a game on the Rangers after they dropped their weekend series against the Braves. Texas hosts the White Sox this week before a huge showdown against the M’s this weekend. The Astros were swept by the Orioles this past weekend, dropping to four games back in the division. Meanwhile, Baltimore has won seven straight and played their way onto the fringe of the Wild Card race. The O’s aren’t even the hottest team in baseball — that’s the Red Sox who have now won 13 in a row and are now in possession of the final Wild Card spot, a game ahead of the Mariners.