PHILADELPHIA — Within a 162-game campaign, there are multiple seasons within a season, each segment sowing hope or despair or perhaps just drudgery. Make it to July in decent shape, though, and anything’s possible.
Bryce Harper knows that all too well. His Philadelphia Phillies started out 9-19, cost manager Rob Thomson his job, then welcomed back Zack Wheeler – and exhaled.
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A 45-24 tear to end the first half – Wheeler winning 10 of his 11 decisions – nudged the Phillies within two games of first place in the National League East – and firmly in wild card contention.
“Once we got Wheels back,” All-Star first baseman Bryce Harper tells USA TODAY Sports, “everybody took a deep breath and understood he was coming back and was going to do his job and do it well. That helped a lot of our other starting pitching fall into place and understand Wheels was going to do his job and everything was going to be OK.
“Once he got back, things started rolling a little more and kind of took off from there.”
And here we are, poised on the eve of the second half, with a mass of mediocrity huddled in the standings and 20 of 30 teams harboring fairly legitimate playoff hopes. Some are far better off than others, though, and with that in mind, USA TODAY Sports breaks down the tiers of playoff contenders as the season re-starts Friday, July 16:
Chandler Simpson and the Tampa Bay Rays hold a three-game lead in the AL East as the second half begins.
Tier 1 – Almost certainly getting in: Dodgers, Brewers, Braves, Rays, Yankees
For what it’s worth, this group’s playoff odds, per FanGraphs, land in the 91-100% range, and you can guess which team enjoys the latter projection. Atlanta holds just a two-game lead over Philadelphia, and both teams possess below-average farm systems, which will make the trade deadline upgrade game fascinating. But Atlanta’s big league product features superior depth than the Phillies.
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Milwaukee can largely rest on its first-half laurels and cruise to the postseason, but injuries to starting pitchers Kyle Harrison and Brandon Woodruff complicate matters. The Brewers hold a five-game lead over the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central; the teams will face each other seven times in 10 games as August turns to September, spurring memories of their fairly epic five-game 2025 NLDS matchup won by the Brewers.
“Every game felt like a Game 7,” remembers Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski. “It didn’t matter if it was a Game 1 or a Game 3. It was a lot of fun.”
Despite the loss of Aaron Judge, the Yankees and Rays are simply the only teams with a semblance of consistency in the AL. The Rays have a three-game lead over the Yankees and 10 over third-place Boston. The Yankees should face the same scenario last year, a wild card in hand and a battle for the division, with Tampa Bay replacing Toronto. In case you were wondering: The Rays hold a 6-3 head-to-head advantage, so the Yankees best not tie for the division title once again.
Tier 2 – Most likely getting in: Phillies, Cubs, Mariners, Rangers, Guardians
We’ll ship the Phillies and Cubs into the NL field, one way or another. As for the AL slog?
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Throw a dart, essentially. One of the Mariners and Rangers should win the West, and both have the pitching and pedigree to play with a semblance of consistency in the second half. Texas – now 49-47 – is an interesting sleeper: The Rangers have crawled to the .500 mark with an interesting mix of ’23 championship holdovers and new blood.
“We’ve gotten through the hardest part of our schedule playing above .500 baseball and we still don’t have our full team there,” All-Star closer Jacob Latz says. “We’re missing Corey (Seager). The guys are starting to find their groove a bit. They’ve done it before. They know what it takes to get there.
“Everyone’s starting to peak at the same time. Which is what happened in ’23.”
The Guardians are in a dead heat with the White Sox in the Central, but boast a more potent and precise pitching staff, along with a core that gutted out a pair of playoff berths the past two seasons.
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Tier 3 – Slightly better than a coin flip: Marlins, Pirates, White Sox
Any of these guys would spice up the playoff field, if only due to their upstart nature. Naturally, everyone wants to see Paul Skenes in a playoff setting, but he needs to start pitching better (a 6.64 ERA in his last four first half starts) to push the Pirates in the right direction.
Will the White Sox ever get in too deep? Now they’ve got Munetaka Murakami back, and the always dangerous power of belief. Not writing them off yet.
Jul 11, 2026; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Cardinals shortstop Masyn Winn (0) reacts after turning a double play against the Atlanta Braves in the sixth inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Puetz-Imagn Images
Ugly, ugly, ugly. Safe to say seven of these eight teams are massive disappointments – save for the Cardinals, who are a game out of a wild card spot yet exhibited little effort to contend this season.
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“We play hard for each other,” says Cardinals closer Riley O’Brien. “We show up every day ready to work. Regardless of whether we win or lose, we move on, we flush it and today’s a new day.
“We have a ton of talent. And I think as we continue to play for each other and put that talent on the field, good things are going to happen in the second half.”
The Red Sox have not lost since July 1, have pulled within two games of .500 and are probably more intriguing right now than the Orioles and Blue Jays, whose maddening inconsistencies make it difficult to put much stock in their playoff hopes.
And while the Tigers have just a 27.3% chance to make the playoffs, consider them the team to watch: They can upset all this hierarchy if they fade from contention and choose to trade ace Tarik Skubal.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Who’s going to MLB playoffs? Ranking tiers of postseason contenders
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