Two years out: Projecting the 2028 U.S. men’s basketball roster for 2028 Los Angeles Olympics

When I posed a roster question to one former Team USA member, he said, “Cooper Flagg starts” before I finished the sentence. He’s probably right. Cunningham also seems a lock with his size and two-way play.

Center is by far the hardest part of assembling the USA roster, in part because you have to build it out thinking about the USA’s biggest threat to the gold medal: France with Victor Wembanyama in the middle. Bam Adebayo is a high-level two-way center who has proven he can handle the physicality of FIBA ball, and add in that Spoelstra is the coach, Bam is a lock.

Advertisement

Likely to make roster

• Chet Holmgren
• Jalen Johnson
• Evan Mobley

Johnson feels like a borderline lock as a two-way wing/forward who can help Team USA in a lot of ways. Mobley, a former Defensive Player of the Year who can face up and score, is a natural fit, and a couple of sources suggested Adebayo and Mobley might be the best starting frontcourt, although if Mobley shot better from 3 I’d be more comfortable with this. Mobley has never played for Team USA before, is he interested?

Holmgren was the most discussed player in my conversations. He is a two-way big man who averaged 17.1 points and 8.9 rebounds per game last season for OKC, shot 36.2% from 3-point range, and blocked 1.9 shots a night on his way to finishing second in Defensive Player of the Year voting. That sounds like he should be a lock for Los Angeles. But we have seen what Wemby does to Holmgren, and FIBA basketball is far more physical than the NBA, and Holmgren is going to struggle with that style of play. Multiple people suggested he might not make the final roster. I’m not sure I’m willing to go there, in part because the other options are limited, but Holmgren is far from a lock, and there are questions to answer.

Advertisement

On the bubble

Guards:
Tyrese Maxey
Devin Booker
Jalen Brunson
Donovan Mitchell

Wings:
Jaylen Brown
Scottie Barnes
Jalen Williams
Amen Thompson
Kevin Durant

Centers:
Jalen Duren
Walker Kessler

The USA is stacked with guards and wings, and there are going to be some tough calls to make. Good players are going to stay home.

Will Durant want to play at age 39 (and will his body let him)? He has said he wants to play if he’s able. If he says he wants to go, USA Basketball will not say no to the greatest international player in our men’s history, a four-time gold medalist and the USA’s leading scorer all-time in the Olympics.

Advertisement

Devin Booker will be just 31, likely wants to return and might be tough to keep off the roster as he won gold in Paris and is a trusted two-way player. Does he beat out Maxey’s athleticism, shooting and defense? Bruson is just a winner and will step up in the clutch. Jaylen Brown just finished sixth in MVP voting and is an elite two-way guy, and while he had a public exchange with USA Basketball head Grant Hill after not making the Paris roster, we’re going to assume they ask and he says yes this time. Both Scottie Barnes and a healthy Jalen Williams should get serious consideration as well. Amen Thompson needs to develop his shot, but as a defensive wing stopper, he would be a force.

And then there’s center. Kessler — or the idealized idea of Kessler, the guy the Lakers are paying him to be — would be a great fit, especially since there is no defensive three-second rule in FIBA ball. Duren also would be a fit, although after his recent playoff performance a few executives winced at the idea of him on this big stage — he needs to prove those playoffs were a one-off.

Wild Cards

Kon Knueppel
Donovan Clingan
AJ Dybantsa
Darryn Peterson
Cameron Boozer

Advertisement

Knueppel showed the potential to get into the guard mix, we just need to see another year and growth from him. Clingan is a big body who can move, he is on the fringe of the center discussion. Can anyone from this June’s draft class — Dybantsa, Peterson or Boozer — be ready for the big squad in two years? (Most likely, all of them are on the USA Select Team, which scrimmages against the primary USA squad.)

Final 12 prediction

Anthony Edwards
Tyrese Haliburton
Cade Cunningham
Tyrese Maxey
Jayson Tatum
Cooper Flagg
Jaylen Brown
Jalen Johnson Jr.
Bam Adebayo
Evan Mobley
Chet Holmgren
Jalen Duren

First, if Kevin Durant wants to play and is healthy, then he is in, and someone else has to go.

Advertisement

There is plenty to debate about which guards and wings should make the cut, but you also almost can’t go wrong. Because I think we need four bigs to deal with Wemby, I couldn’t put either Scottie Barnes or Jalen Williams in the final 12. But if you put either of them on the team instead of Jaylen Brown, it’s still very good (although I think Brown deserves to go). (Note: If Duren or Kessler step up enough in the next two years and the USA can go with three bigs and lose Holmgren or Mobley, then we can add Barnes or Williams.)

I’ll take an improved Maxey two years from now over an older Booker or Brunson, but again, we’re talking three players who would make this team better.

Then there’s the center position. Ideally, we only need three for a 40-minute game, and Adebayo is a lock. But Holmgren and Mobley are not traditional bigs, and we need some size and bulk to handle Wemby and potentially others like Nikola Jokic or others. The consensus among the people I talked to was that Kessler is, in theory, the better fit, but he needs to play a couple of seasons to prove it and stay healthy. So, for now, we go with Duren, who has done it for a season. Again, as noted above, if Duren or Kessler prove up to the task, we might be able to cut one big (Holmgren or Mobley) and go with another wing or guard.

This roster would be the gold medal favorite — but this is shaping up to be the toughest road to gold the USA has ever seen.