Is Elias Pettersson A Worthwhile Gamble For The Penguins?

For weeks, the Pittsburgh Penguins have been linked to superstar RFA forward Jason Robertson, who just filed for arbitration with the Dallas Stars.

On Monday’s edition of the 32 Thoughts Podcast, NHL Insider Elliotte Friedman said that there were “some pretty serious talks” between the Penguins and the Stars regarding a potential trade that would bring Robertson to Pittsburgh. Obviously, it hasn’t happened yet, and Robertson filing for arbitration makes things murkier for the entire situation.

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But there was something else Friedman mentioned that is getting a fair amount of attention, and it was a suggestion involving another hot-button trade candidate.

“Here’s another one that I’ve wondered about, and that is Pettersson. Elias Pettersson from the Canucks,” Friedman said. “And, remember, he has control, but… look, all of a sudden, he’s got to play better. And that $11.6 (million), everyone’s been talking about that, I know. But, again, the ground has shifted here in a huge way. I’ve sat there, and I’ve said, ‘Where could he go that could be good for him?’

“I don’t know. I wonder if the Penguins with Crosby and Malkin might be good for him.”

Pettersson, 27, is a big yet under-the-radar trade candidate from the Vancouver Canucks, as the center’s value has faded a bit over the last several years. After posting a 39-goal, 102-point season in 2022-23, his production has decreased. Following one more season above 30 goals and point-per-game in 2023-24, he has just 30 goals and 96 points in the 138 games combined over the past two seasons.

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He also carries a cap hit of $11.6 million for six more years, which is, perhaps, the elephant in the room. Sure, that $11.6 million might not look so hefty in a few years given how the market is evolving quickly, but Penguins’ POHO and GM Kyle Dubas did caution the idea of throwing a ton of money out there all in one summer and not having enough cap space to, perhaps, be in on better talent in the future.

So, it’s worth wondering whether Pettersson is a worthwhile gamble for the Penguins. Here is the case for either side of it.

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The case against

While $11.6 million may not be a ton of money a few years down the line, it could, potentially, pose some issues for the Penguins – especially if they plan to try adding another key piece via trade and because of the young players they already have.

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For one, taking on the full $11.6 million – which seems to be what Canucks’ POHO Jim Rutherford wants – inhibits them from going after another impact player in the immediacy. The Penguins still very much want to add – Robertson is only one of those players – and they have a pretty gaping hole on the left side of their defense with Parker Wotherspoon being dealt to the Vegas Golden Knights.

It also poses a potential issue for the 2027-28 season and beyond, as the Penguins have a projected $71 million in cap space as of right now for next summer but already have obligations. Erik Karlsson’s future in Pittsburgh is uncertain, and that cap number includes his $10 million cap hit being off the books. Sidney Crosby will also need a new contract, and they will have a boatload of UFAs and RFAs – many of which are young players.

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Aside from UFAs Evgeni Malkin, Tommy Novak, Andrei Kuzmenko, Justin Brazeau, and Samuel Girard, they will also have RFAs Elmer Soderblom, Nick Robertson (assuming he gets the one-year deal out of arbitration), Arturs Silovs, Sergei Murashov, Rutger McGroarty, Tristan Broz, Avery Hayes, Jake Livanavage, Owen Pickering, and – potentially – Ville Koivunen, should his assumed new contract be just one year.

That’s a lot, and it will add up, especially since at least a couple of these guys have a chance to break out at the NHL level this season and demand a whole lot more. Adding Pettersson’s cap hit only dwindles that $71 million, too.

But, money aside, Pettersson has gained a reputation – fair or not – that questions his effort. Is that apparent reputation and aversion to coachability worth the $11.6 million? Honestly, it may not be, and it’s a fair question to ask – even if there is considerable upside.

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The case for

Well, simply put, it’s not everyday that a legitimate second-line center option is available on the market, and especially not one whose acquisition cost will be minimal in the rising cap environment.

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Aside from left defense, the Penguins’ biggest area of need is another top-six center. While Ben Kindel projects to get there at some point, it’s probably best for his development to remain the team’s third-line center heading into next season. And, even if he does breach that position – and even if folks don’t want to talk about it – Crosby won’t be superhuman forever and will eventually need a viable replacement.

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Pettersson and Kindel down the middle for a while doesn’t sound half bad. Plus, by that point, the Penguins will have several of their young players established on the NHL roster, giving Pettersson and Kindel options.

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And, yes, maybe $11.6 million could be a bit tricky next offseason, but what if the Canucks were willing to take on Ryan Graves’s $4.5 million average annual value for three more years while they’re rebuilding anyway? And what if one or both of Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell is not on the roster? Then, the cap might be a total non-issue.

Yes, the Penguins would be taking a chance with Pettersson, but there could be enough upside to justify the risk. At worst, Pettersson – who is actually very capable on both sides of the puck – becomes an average second-line center or good third-line center for the Penguins, and at best, they have a long-term solution at first- and second-line center who could help bridge the gap between the Crosby competitive window and the next competitive window.

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The verdict

If the Canucks are willing to take back Graves’s contract for Pettersson, it is probably worth the risk. Top-six centers don’t grow on trees, and it’s even rarer that they can be had at the cost that Pettersson will likely go for, which is, reasonably, a 2027 first-round pick, a roster player, a prospect, and Graves.

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The upside is there, and given the turmoil in Vancouver the last handful of seasons, a change of scenery could bode really well for Pettersson. Of course, he has a full no-movement clause, meaning he would need to want to come to Pittsburgh to begin with. But, it’s worth considering that the Penguins just signed Kuzmenko to a one-year, $5 million deal – and Kuzmenko was Pettersson’s linemate in 2022-23, when they both put up 39 goals.

But, if the ask isn’t too much, and if the Penguins can’t land a big fish like Robertson, Pettersson is a pretty decent consolation prize.

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