About once every 15 years the Flyers go crazy with an offer sheet. In 2012, it was for Shea Weber to a $110 million contract for 14 years. Nashville would match that, but go on to trade Weber soon after.
The Flyers were back in the lab, concocting a scheme to make Leo Carlsson the highest paid player in the NHL at the age of 21, before he even has a 30-goal or 70-point season under his belt. And so it will be, with Carlsson making $18 million annually for the next five years, either with Philadelphia or Anaheim if they take the poison pill and match – as their previously promised would happen.
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It’s an interesting move that has turned the hockey world on its head. The Flyers needed to do something bold and a franchise player is about the only piece missing for their young core. It takes a massive overpay to have a chance to poach another team’s restricted free agent, and no one can say they didn’t take that big swing. They’ll hope/expect their next four first round picks that they’d send to Anaheim if they don’t match would all be out of the lottery and down towards the end of the draft. If so, the high trade price isn’t that bad.
The Ducks have long been playing with fire with their young players. Getting contracts out of Anaheim has often been pulling teeth – Mason McTavish, Jamie Drysdale and Trevor Zegras have all been without contracts when training camps have started in recent years (it’d be inaccurate to call it a hold out, when they don’t have a contract in the first place). This team drags their feet to suppress salary as long as they can, which now ironically has come back to bite them big time and ruin their whole cap structure. The lesson to other teams is clear: don’t forget what the second word in RFA means (free), let your young star players hit restricted free agency at your own peril. Anaheim has learned that lesson today.
Anaheim could be in more trouble, the sharks (not the NHL team but the whole league) are reportedly circling now that there’s blood in the water.
The Penguins traded their 2027 third round pick in the deal to acquire Hendrix Lapierre. That takes away a lot of this summer’s offer sheet ability (which goes to show the expectation/plan didn’t include much by way of trying offer sheets), but Pittsburgh
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AFP and Evolving Hockey has Mintyukov’s projected salary at $3.4ish million AAV if it goes two years on a bridge deal. Another team could put further strain on Anaheim’s position if Mintyukov agreed to a short-term deal worth $4.775 million. The Ducks might have cap space to match – they’d still have $20m in room if they match Carlsson’s deal – but they do still have the non-offer sheet eligible Cutter Gauthier to sign and round out a blueline that lost talent.
On the whole, it wouldn’t make since for ANA to let Mintyukov go if it cost $4.775 million to match, regardless of what happens with Carlsson, but now they’re exposed to answering questions a team would rather not have to answer. If an NHL team really wanted Mintyukov, they would have to do what the Flyers did and go strong – offer him in the $7 million range for five years (requiring a first and third round pick transferred to Anaheim). Forcing the issue and raising the stakes to wildly high proportions is the way to go in order to accomplish the goal.
The Pens don’t have their third round pick, and perhaps no interest in giving up a future first, so they will be sitting those proceedings out. They’ll surely be interested observers in seeing what happens with Carlsson – and pulling hard for Anaheim to match and keep their young star player.
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Another situation to watch: Shane Wright.
The fourth-overall pick in the 2022 NHL Draft, Wright just completed his second full season, with 12 goals and 27 points in 74 games. As the trade deadline approached, his name was out there, particularly in Seattle’s attempt to land Artemi Panarin. (Panarin was laser-focused on Los Angeles, with many teams — not only the Kraken — unable to bribe him elsewhere.)
Wright’s still available, and there’s motivation to make it work, although disagreement on the commitment.
“I can confirm that we have had positive conversations with GM Jason Botterill, and he has agreed to move Shane this summer to a team in need of a top young centre,” Wright’s agent, Kurt Overhardt, said Wednesday.
Botterill would not comment. Other executives who’ve spoken to Seattle said there’s obviously an agreement between team and agent to work together, but the Kraken made it extremely clear they expect a fair price and won’t be pressured into anything they don’t want to do. In other words, they are making no guarantees.
Shane Wright checks every box for the type of players that the Penguins target these days for being a young player, with talent that still needs to truly blossom. Targeting or identifying the players is one thing, actually acquiring them is another. Seeking a “fair price” for a 22-year old former fourth overall pick that has scored 71 points in the NHL in the last two seasons – and still barely scratched the surface of what could be unlocked presents a tricky scenario.
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Surely Seattle isn’t going to let that guy go for cheap, he has breakout potential and they’ve invested a lot in him. At the same time, finding a buyer to pay a premium for what’s been an uneven career naturally is going to be a tough ask.
It’s worth watching for the Penguins, they have a ton of forwards on the NHL roster now but could always use a 22-year old center with significant upside for the present and future. Whether or not they have the right assets to make a deal with the Kraken, plus the interest in parting with whatever that right deal is, could be anyone’s guess.
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