The Detroit Lions replaced former offensive coordinator John Morton with former Arizona Cardinals offensive coordinator Drew Petzing after a one-off campaign that resulted in a fourth-place NFC North finish, a 9-8 record and Detroit’s first playoff absence since 2022. Lions head coach Dan Campbell publicly confirmed that he had taken over play-calling duties in Week 10, though he may have been at least partially involved in play-calling one week prior.
Injuries and erratic skill position play worked against Petzing in Arizona, but only so much blame can be placed on the players’ shoulders. His offense failed to average 6.0 yards per play once in three seasons. Fantasy managers can take solace in Campbell’s demonstrated willingness to assume play-calling duties if need be. This remains a fantasy-friendly squad in 2026.
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▶ 2025 Detroit Lions Stats (Rank)
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Points per game: 28.3 (5th)
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Total yards per game: 373.2 (5th)
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Plays per game: 62.5 (14th)
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Dropbacks per game: 38.5 (17th)
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Dropback EPA per play: 0.17 (7th)
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Designed rush attempts per game: 26.4 (12th)
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Rush EPA per play: -0.07 (17th)
▶ Campbell and Petzing’s offensive philosophies partially overlap, but can they bridge their differences?
The Lions’ per-game metrics sharply improved after Campbell officially took over for Morton. The offense increased its yards per play from 5.8 to 6.1, its average plays per game from 62.8 to 66.6, and its respective explosive run and pass play rates from 9.0 percent to 11.3 percent and 16.3 percent to 18.4 percent. He requires the unit to play efficiently, quickly and explosively.
Petzing used 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends and two wide receivers) on more than 30.0 percent of plays over the past two seasons, and his 36.0 percent 12 personnel rate in 2025 ranks fourth among NFL teams. Campbell’s 2025 Lions sat just above league-average at 25.1 percent last year after using 12 personnel at a 36.4 percent rate in 2024, former offensive coordinator Ben Johnson’s final season in Detroit. Expect two tight ends to take the field on more than 30.0 percent of plays this season.
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The Lions also possess the requisite personnel to utilize 13 personnel (one running back, three tight ends and one running back) more often, if they wish. Much like Arizona and Detroit’s 12 personnel usage, the Cardinals ranked third in total 13 personnel snaps (123) while the Lions (61) finished just above average last year.
Both teams relied on play action last season. That tactic should remain a staple.
While the Lions smartly employed a top-seven shifts and motion rate (69.8 percent), the Cardinals (52.9 percent) ranked in the bottom three. This gap likely represents Campbell and Petzing’s biggest philosophical difference. Shifts brought mixed offensive results last season, but NFL teams averaged 5.16 yards per play without motion and 5.38 yards per play with motion. Integrating Campbell’s tactic into Petzing’s play designs is critical for maintaining efficiency edges, and fantasy managers should expect Campbell’s preferences to win out over Petzing’s ineffectual old-school methods.
▶ Passing Game
QB: Jared Goff, Teddy Bridgewater
WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Greg Dortch
WR: Jameson Williams, Tom Kennedy
WR: Isaac TeSlaa, Dominic Lovett
TE: Sam LaPorta, Brock Wright, Tyler Conklin
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Lions quarterback Jared Goff’s season-long fantasy output remained steady, finishing as the QB8 in total points (305.5), despite losing his offensive coordinator of three years. In his three prior seasons, Goff’s finishes ranged from QB6-QB10 and his point totals ranged from 290.3-335.5.
As detailed in the run game section below, the Lions’ front office invested in Goff’s pass protection this offseason.
Goff’s average target depth has decreased every year since 2022, going from 7.6 to 7.0 during that span. His adjusted completion rate, conversely, continues to climb, going from 77.8 percent to 80.2 percent, most recently ranking first among 33 NFL quarterbacks with at least 285 dropbacks. Perhaps most importantly, his 7.9 yards per pass attempt average is his second-highest over the past four seasons. Goff, 31, may be attacking the short area of the field more often nowadays, but his processing, timing and placement remain elite. His new offensive coordinator orchestrated the league’s most pass-heavy offense in neutral situations (67.1 percent) last year. It is unlikely Petzing repeats the feat in Detroit, but it bodes positively for his quarterback’s passing opportunities. Goff is a mid-tier QB1 once again.
No. 1 wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown has astonishingly finished as the overall WR3, in total PPR scoring, in each of the last three seasons. He turns 27 years old in late October and can be viewed as a shoo-in WR1 for 2026.
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Lions No. 2 wide receiver Jameson Williams was the PPR WR51 in points per game in Weeks 1-9 last year. Campbell immediately rectified the issue after taking over as play caller by featuring Williams as a centerfield weapon, while diversifying his route tree and target depth. Williams was the PPR WR11 in per-game scoring in Weeks 10-18; however, it must be noted that star tight end Sam LaPorta “fully herniated” a disc in his back in Week 10, ending his season.
LaPorta underwent surgery to correct the issue and managed to resume participating in walkthroughs at voluntary organized team activities this spring. The team hopes he will be ready to participate in training camp next month. LaPorta’s potential return adds volatility to Williams’ season-long range of potential outcomes. Williams can be viewed as a borderline WR2/3 with week-winning upside. LaPorta was the PPR TE8 at the time of injury. Expecting a return to the mid-tier TE1 range is reasonable, assuming he has ample time to ramp up before the season begins. Missing regular season time is probably unlikely for LaPorta, but were he to do so, Williams would reasonably rocket up weekly rankings for the duration.
Petzing’s expected multi-tight end-set increase makes second-year wide receiver Isaac TeSlaa’s outlook difficult to project. The Lions ended their five-year relationship with the reliable, if infrequently targeted wide receiver, Kalif Raymond, this offseason. TeSlaa’s rookie season performance was likely the primary reason for Raymond’s departure.
TeSlaa’s unimpressive 8.8 percent overall target rate jumps to 20.4 percent in the red zone, and his six red zone receiving touchdowns trailed only St. Brown’s 10. The Lions had no trouble accentuating the young wide receiver’s jump-ball abilities. TeSlaa (6’4/214) is a boom-bust FLEX option, albeit one playing in an offense that should regularly enter scoring position–and one who has a highly complimentary head coach, willing to design red zone plays around his size and skill set.
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Petzing brought former Cardinals slot receiver Greg Dortch with him on a one-year deal, giving the Lions a serviceable, potentially PPR-friendly backup if St. Brown misses time.
▶ Running Game
RB: Jahmyr Gibbs, Isiah Pacheco, Sione Vaki
OL (L-R): Penei Sewell, Christian Mahogany, Cade Mays, Tate Ratledge, Blake Miller
Detroit general manager Brad Holmes released career Lion, left tackle Taylor Decker, this offseason. Decker had manned the Lions’ blindside since the team drafted him with the No. 16 overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. In steps decorated former right tackle Penei Sewell, who is reportedly enjoying a “seamless” transition to the left side. He has taken snaps at the position previously, when necessary.
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Holmes solidified the interior offensive line by signing former Carolina Panthers center Cade Mays, who grades out as a top-five pass-protecting center (72.0) over the past two seasons, among qualifying players with at least 1,000 offensive snaps, per PFF. First-round rookie right tackle Blake Miller allowed pressure on just 1.8 percent of his 2025 pass-blocking reps while manning Clemson’s right side. The Lions smartly continue to prioritize pass protection in the trenches.
According to Campbell, running back Jahmyr Gibbs is entering his first full season operating as Detroit’s bell cow. Although Gibbs held the starting role all year, he did not ascend to bell cow status until Week 11 last year, logging a 58.5 percent positional snap share and a 56.3 percent positional touch share in Weeks 1-10, banking overall PPR RB4 results during that span. From Weeks 11-18, he respectively logged 68.8 percent and 71.4 percent positional snap and touch share while producing as the overall PPR RB2.
After finishing as the overall PPR RB3 in 2025 and RB1 in 2024, Gibbs warrants strong consideration as the No. 1 overall pick in 2026 fantasy drafts. His outlook is enhanced by Detroit’s strength of schedule, detailed below.
Free agent signee running back Isiah Pacheco is a smart bench stash.
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▶ 2026 Detroit Lions Win Total
DraftKings Over/Under: 10.5
Pick: Over (-110)
The Lions enter 2026 with Sharp Football Analysis’ softest expected strength of schedule, mildly offsetting potential concerns about their early-season bye. After two likely competitive games vs. NO and @BUF to begin the year, Detroit can coast vs. NYJ, @CAR and @ARI. Their Week 6 bye grants them two weeks to prep for consecutive home games against the Packers and Vikings’ tough defenses before taking a trip to sunny Miami for a tune-up game against the Dolphins. The Lions then head home for three straight weeks, where they will host the Patriots, Buccaneers and division-rival Bears. Weeks 13 and 14, @ATL and vs. TEN, look like bankable wins. The Lions then play @MIN, vs. NYG and @CHI for standard fantasy football playoff timelines. They stay on the road in Week 18 for a game against the Packers. This is an exciting schedule for fantasy purposes.
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