We’re almost into July, so we can probably predict far too early which players will win which NFL awards when the 2026 season ends. Or rather, who probably has a slim chance to.
Over at NFL.com, Bucky Brooks put together his long shots for major NFL awards of the year. These are things like now-Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kyler Murray winning the Most Valuable Player Award, and New England Patriots wide receiver A.J. Brown winning the Offensive Player of the Year Award.
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Long shots. One of those long shots is San Francisco 49ers linebacker Fred Warner, Brooks’ long shot for Comeback Player of the Year:
Fully recovered from last October’s season-ending ankle injury, the heart and soul of San Francisco’s defense should be squarely in the mix for the league’s bounce-back award, even in a loaded field of candidates that is highlighted by numerous high-profile quarterbacks (Patrick Mahomes and Jayden Daniels, to name a couple). Warner’s energy, effort and disruptive impact jump off the screen when watching this unit play. With Warner coming off the first major injury of his NFL career, I think we’ll see a fanatical effort from the 29-year-old as he seeks to reclaim his standing as the league’s top linebacker. With new defensive coordinator Raheem Morris installing a scheme that will showcase Warner’s skills as a “see ball, get ball” playmaker, the four-time first-team All-Pro will make more than enough plays to grab everyone’s attention.
Is Warner that much of a long shot, though? If he returns Week 1 and plays a full season as Fred Warner, why couldn’t he at least enter the conversation? As Brooks points out, it’s because he’s on a list that has two quarterbacks.
We can always go to gambling for assistance. Over at FanDuel Sportsbook, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is listed as the best odds for the award (+200), followed by Jayden Daniels (+430) and Kyler Murray (+550). Keep in mind, Kyler Murray’s “long shot” was for MVP, not Comeback Player of the Year.
Fred Warner is listed at eighth-best odds (+2500). Given where he is, I’d say he has a good chance to get that award—if it wasn’t for the fact that Patrick Mahomes is in that category. I could joke and say if Mahomes were in Defensive Player of the Year odds, there’d be a strong case for him to win that award, too. Truth is, a quarterback with Mahomes’ resume and an ACL tear is probably going to get more nods than a linebacker with a broken ankle. At least this year.
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For that reason alone, any player is a long shot for the award not named Patrick Mahomes or Jayden Daniels. It’s just how this is set up.
Do you think Fred Warner has a chance to win that award? Or do you agree it’s going to take a lot to get him in the conversation?
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