Takeaways from Henri Veesaar’s NBA Draft plummet

Second, the recent change in NCAA rules eligibility, the “5 for 5” rule, means Henri would have had two more seasons of college eligibility. Assuming good health, Veesaar in retrospect had the option of two years at $5+ million each. Third, Alex Toohey, last year’s pick 52, signed a non-guaranteed G-league deal with the Golden State Warriors worth around $600,000. Injured in December, the Warriors cut him, so Toohey realized only around $170,000 of that contract. That’s a $10 million difference.

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We’ll get into the particulars of Veesaar’s drop in a bit, but his example seems worth discussion because UNC likely will have plenty of players facing similar decisions and dilemmas moving forward. The conversation for next year’s draft already includes three players on next season’s roster: Nikolas Avdalas, Sayon Keita, and Matt Able. They will all likely face choices similar to Veesaar’s. As fans, there’s also the small matter of gnashing our teeth every time we’re watching a tight game or monitoring the NET standings, wondering whether Henri’s return would have meant a better result. Taking the time to better understand a dynamic that likely to impact UNC men’s basketball every season moving forward seems worth the time.

The following moves back and forth between what we suspect and what we know, labelled accordingly. The speculation isn’t an attempt to point fingers without evidence. It’s just conjecture along the lines of the way NBA front offices can operate.

Speculation. A player with $5 million or more on the table in college likely needs solid evidence that a NBA tam values him enough to forego that guaranteed money, no matter how done they are with college classrooms or how much they dream of being in the NBA. Let’s pretend that a team promises to draft him late in the first round, say, the Lakers at pick 25. Perhaps no one makes him a promise, but more than one team – add the Knicks here – indicates a desire to add Veesaar with a late first round or early second round pick.

Known: Last year’s pick 25, Jase Richardson of the Orlando Magic, signed a four year contract worth more than $15 million, with more than $6 million of that guaranteed over the first two years. So, yes, the 25th pick in the NBA draft actually represents a pay cut from what a college player in Henri’s situation stands to make. If you’re wondering why so many underclassmen projected in the latter half of the first round opted to return to school, there’s one highly relevant data point. “Let’s make more money next season than I would in the NBA, with hopes of moving up in next season’s draft.” That comes with risks, most notably injury. Choosing the NBA in this situation means slightly less money in the short term, but it allows a player to train full-time in a fully professional setting, minus the demands of college. It gets a player firmly onto a NBA roster. It gets a player to a second contract sooner. It amounts to a player making a long-term bet on themselves, and that’s hard to condemn a guy for.

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Speculation: This in turn assumes the front offices aren’t just blowing smoke or more fluid behind the scenes than they’re willing to reveal. Let’s say the Knicks, fresh off a title, restructure their off-season strategy and decide to keep trading down, taking a couple of two-way assets in the 2nd round rather than adding a first rounder to the roster. Let’s say the Lakers front office also likes Cameron Carr, a center from Baylor with better defensive upside, but doesn’t expect him to be on the board when their turn rolls around. Turns out Carr is, and the Lakers trade up from 25 to 24 to nab him.

Known: The Lakers picking Carr at 24, and then the Knicks trading away both picks 24 and 25 for future assets, was the point things went off the rails for Veesaar. Most mocks assumed one of those two teams would be Veesaar’s first round landing spot. With the first round done and Veesaar still waiting, Henri became a hot topic. Pundits talked about Veesaar as a first round talent and steal as an early second round pick. Jeremy Woo of ESPN said he expected the Knicks to take Veesaar with pick 31, with the caveat that the Knicks didn’t keep trading away their picks. Which the Knicks did, sending the pick to Houston.

Speculation: Veesaar and his agent at this point want some sort of guaranteed deal, but the teams picking at the top of the second round don’t need bigs. 10 of the first 15 picks in the second round go for guards, and the other five choose forwards. Word leaks that Veesaar’s agent tells teams that if they want to draft Veesaar, they better be willing to offer him a contract with more than one guaranteed year.

Known: The Lakers trade back into the second round at 56, with the conventional wisdom that Veesaar’s their aim. Once the Hawks jump into the 52 spot and take Henri, the Lakers trade that pick away.

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Speculation: Veesaar and the Hawks worked something out better than the Lakers were offering. While the details of a Hawks-Veesaar agreement remain unknown, the NBA doesn’t have firm salary slots for picks in the second round. Remember pick 52 mentioned above, the one Golden State signed to a non-guaranteed $600,000 and then cut? Those same Warriors at pick 56, four picks later, took Will Richard and signed him to a four year deal at $8.7 million, with $3.4 million of that guaranteed over two years (hat tip LCS70). That’s in line with what other picks near the top of the second round negotiated. Richard appeared in 69 games for the Warriors, averaging 20 minutes, 6.4 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 1.2 steals.