NHL Draft Odds & Picks 2026: McKenna On Collision Course With Maple Leafs

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The NHL world is now focused on the Toronto Maple Leafs, who will pick first overall in the NHL Draft on June 26.

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Gavin McKenna was the clear-cut top pick a month ago, and that seems to be the case with the draft on Friday.

We look at the possibility of who will go No. 1 overall to the Maple Leafs, with the 2026 NHL Draft odds from Kalshi — one of our best prediction market apps — listing McKenna as the heavy favorite with an 94% probably.

2026 NHL Draft odds (No. 1 pick): Who will Maple Leafs take first overall?

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi

Being a Maple Leafs fan is truly something else. One day, they are talking about Auston Matthews’ next team odds. Next, they are trying to figure out who will be picked No. 1 overall.

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What the market is telling us

Unless something disastrous happens — like McKenna knocking out another dork at a bar — the Penn State product is heading to Toronto.

Stenberg is a top talent no doubt, but the Maple Leafs fans have fallen in love with the idea of McKenna in blue, and any other pick could cause serious backlash from a fanbase already worn out.

NHL draft No. 1 overall favorites

Gavin McKenna 

The 18-year-old from Whitehorse has been turning heads for years, and his name has always been involved in No. 1 pick talks. While not a true “consensus” pick, like Bedard or McDavid, McKenna has done nothing on the ice to make anyone doubt his potential.

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After dominating the WHL, McKenna made the jump to the NCAA to play with the Penn State Nittany Lions. He transitioned seamlessly —  putting up 51 points in 36 games. He’s also a pass-first winger who fits perfectly with Matthews almost immediately.

McKenna’s ceiling is higher than anyone in the draft, but his marketability is what can truly make him the golden boy for Toronto. Fans are in love with him, and he’s already shown more personality than robots like Bedard or McDavid ever did in their younger years.

This market has gone from 88% to 94% since opening, and all signs point to McKenna heading to the 6ix.

Ivar Stenberg

While Ivar Stenberg still has the second-highest odds to go first overall (4%), his odds to go second overall have plummeted in the days leading up to the Draft.

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The debate of whether the Sharks should take a forward or defenseman has been a hot topic, and OHL D-man Chase Reid now has a 52% chance to head to Cali.

I think this market will be volatile until a pick is made. Not only is the Reid-Stenberg dilemma a hurdle, but San Jose could also trade out of this spot if a team offers a substantial package.

NHL Draft No. 1 overall pick prediction

Pick: Gavin McKenna (94¢, -1562)

Looking at the overall landscape of the Leafs and the NHL as a whole (more on that in a moment), Gavin McKenna is the clear choice here.

The Maple Leafs never looked like they were “one player away” last season, and even with their projected $22 million in cap space, there are too many holes to plug to help this sinking ship.

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And that’s not even talking about the off-ice positives. At the end of the day, the NHL is a business, and Toronto knows it will sell more McKenna jerseys than it ever would Stenberg ones.

McKenna gives them a true “face of the franchise” if Matthews decides to dip, and there may be an upcoming free agent out of Edmonton who would love the idea of playing with a fellow Canadian in a couple of years…

2026 NHL Mock Draft

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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