The New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs enter this year’s NBA Finals on a collision course of experience vs. exuberance. The Knicks return to the Finals for the first time since 1999 with a group of veterans in their prime with shared playoff experience. The Spurs’ latest iteration to make the Finals comes during their first playoff run behind French phenom Victor Wembanyama. They’re entering the series just three days after wrapping up a grueling seven games against the Thunder, while the Knicks have had an extra week to rest up and tinker in the lab.
To the extent that regular season matchups may resemble the Finals product, the Knicks hold the upper hand – winning two of three, including the NBA Cup championship game and a 25-point blowout in March. But both teams responded to playoff adversity by evolving into new forms. FanDuel’s odds on the NBA Finals champion are a window into the complex matchups and adjustments that will go into determining the champion, and the Knicks now find themselves as the betting underdogs.
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KNICKS (+168)
The Knicks have been playing incredible basketball. They’ve won 11 consecutive playoff games, all by double digits. Their 19.4 point differential during the 14-game playoff run is nearly five points better than the next best differential in playoff history. They’ve been grabbing nearly 60% of rebound chances, and outscored the Cavs in both second-chance and transition points in their closeout game.
Jalen Brunson has been the tip of the spear, averaging 26.9 points and 6.6 assists. Karl-Anthony Towns unlocked a new skill pack on offense, averaging a career-high 5.9 assists and more than 10 boards per game. His ability to pull Wemby out of the lane was key in their regular season success.
Beyond the stars, the Knicks’ entire playoff rotation has been excellent. OG Anunoby has stuffed the stat sheets, averaging 19.7 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.6 steals, and knocking down 48% from deep. Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart have scored in double digits and contribute to a swarming defense that averaged over 10 steals per game in the ECF. Landry Shamet probably won’t keep shooting 91% from three, but Miles McBride, Mitchell Robinson, and Jordan Clarkson are solid options at key matchups.
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SPURS (-200)
The Spurs leap-frogged to the front of the Western Conference ahead of schedule. Conventional wisdom (and historical precedent) says that championship teams need multiple rounds of live playoff experience to fortify their layers of adjustments. But that experience also exposes the risks of injuries and salary cap management, whereas youth can supply a reservoir of energy to burst through growing pains. As each series went longer, the Spurs got better.
Wemby’s 41 points and 24 rebounds in game 1 against OKC was emblematic of his ability to control entire games with nearly unlimited offensive and defensive arsenals. He can completely close off the paint or lock down on the perimeter, and he posted 48.1/40.0/89.5 shooting splits against OKC’s elite defense. He’s averaging a 23-point double-double with 3.5 blocks in the playoffs.
The league now revolves around Wembenyama, but the emergence of the Spurs’ young role players and reserves has been the story of their resilience. Stephon Castle took on the top defensive matchups while averaging 19.2 points and 6.7 assists over the playoffs. Dylan Harper looks like a potential future MVP with advanced feel on both ends. Julian Champagnie and Devin Vassell both played tough defense and shot well on more than six 3PAs per game in the WCF. With De’Aaron Fox back from an ankle injury, the Spurs’ offense is deep with dynamic playmakers.
The sportsbooks have the Spurs as a 2-1 favorite in the series at -200. Our expert Ricky O’Donnell picked San Antonio in 7. This is going to be a great NBA Finals.
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