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After surviving a dramatic double-overtime battle in Game 1, the San Antonio Spurs have dropped back-to-back contests and now face a 2-1 series deficit entering Game 4.
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Depth and fatigue could prove pivotal in Game 4, and my Thunder vs. Spurs predictions and NBA picks expect the visiting team to earn a third straight victory.
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UPDATE: Added a prediction for who will win tonight!
Thunder vs Spurs Game 4 prediction
Who will win Thunder vs Spurs Game 4?
Thunder: Through 11 playoff games, the Oklahoma City Thunder lead the Association in bench minutes at 101.1, accounting for 41.3% of the team’s playing time. Through 14 games, the San Antonio Spurs’ bench has accounted for just 32.8% of team minutes. The Spurs’ bench simply doesn’t have the depth to compete, and backup big man Luke Kornet has been a dreadful -37 when on the court, leading to advantages for a Thunder rotation that can switch Kornet onto smaller players and take advantage of outside shooting. The Thunder are deeper and well-rested, and the scariest part is that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander hasn’t scored more than 30 points in a game yet this series.
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Thunder vs Spurs best bet: Thunder moneyline (+110)
The disparity in bench numbers has been jarring, as the Thunder have gotten 61 points and 121.6 minutes per game from their reserves, compared to just 21.3 points and 60.4 minutes for the Spurs.
Victor Wembanyama has averaged 41.7 minutes, and giving him a break isn’t viable. The Spurs are +21 with him on the floor and -38 when he’s on the bench.
With Dylan Harper and De’Aaron Fox nursing injuries, and Wemby forced into big minutes, fatigue will be critical. I priced this line at -140, so I’m thrilled to get it early at +110.
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COVERS INTEL:
The Thunder’s 76 bench points in Game 3 are the most in a Conference Finals or NBA Finals game since 1971. Oklahoma City’s bench outscored San Antonio’s by 53 in the win.
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Thunder vs Spurs Game 4 same-game parlay
OKC’s defense forced Wembanyama outside the paint in Games 2 and 3. He attempted 25 shots and two three-pointers in Game 1 but combined for 31 shots and 12 triples over his last two. The Spurs need to adjust and get him more paint touches to utilize his size and create kickout opportunities. This is a strong value play at plus-money.
Part of San Antonio’s adjustment has to be more bench minutes. Keldon Johnson scored 20.4 points per 36 minutes while shooting 36.3% from beyond the arc this season. I’ll bet this one up to 9.5.
Thunder vs Spurs SGP
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Victor Wembanyama Under 1.5 threes
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Keldon Johnson Over 8.5 points
Our “from downtown” SGP: Bench mob!
The Spurs have gotten torched from beyond the arc in this series. San Antonio has given up 15.7 triples on 39.5% shooting. Most concerning is that 12.7 of the Thunder’s 15.7 makes have been “wide open,” with defenders more than six feet away.
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All of Jaylin Williams, Alex Caruso, and Cason Wallace have knocked down 2+ triples in at least two straight games. The trio are already key reserves, but they will benefit further from Jalen Williams’ injury by taking on increased shot volume.
Thunder vs Spurs SGP
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Jaylin Williams Over 1.5 threes
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Alex Caruso Over 1.5 threes
Thunder vs Spurs odds for Game 4
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Spread: Oklahoma City +1.5 (-105) | San Antonio -1.5 (-115)
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Moneyline: Oklahoma City +110 | San Antonio -130
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Over/Under: Over 218 (-110) | Under 218 (-110)
Thunder vs Spurs betting trend to know
The Thunder have cashed the moneyline in 25 of their last 30 games for +16.40 units and a 8% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Thunder vs. Spurs.
How to watch Thunder vs Spurs Game 4
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Location |
Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX |
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Date |
Sunday, May 24, 2026 |
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Tip-off |
8:00 p.m. ET |
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TV |
NBC |
Thunder vs Spurs latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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