Better Man: Mariners vs. Padres Series Preview

We’ve entered into a bizarro world where a series against the Astros can be viewed as a “get right” series for the Mariners. Back in April, the four-game sweep of Houston pushed Seattle to a game under .500 and 1.5 games back in the AL West. This latest series win in Houston pushed Seattle to a game under .500 and one game back in the AL West. The M’s will have to find a way to keep this momentum going without Cal Raleigh in the lineup which makes their margin for error much thinner than it already was.

Somehow, the Padres have been keeping the Dodgers honest in the NL West. Sure, Los Angeles has struggled a bit, especially recently, but San Diego has also been one of the luckiest teams in baseball this year. The Friars have outperformed their Pythagorean record and BaseRuns record by four games, the second largest gap in baseball behind the Rays. It hasn’t been all luck — the team’s bullpen is elite, helping them close out close games — but the lineup has been the clutchiest in baseball by a pretty wide margin.

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After sweeping the Mariners in San Diego back in April, the Padres are in the driver’s seat to win the 2026 edition of the Vedder Cup. Should the Mariners manage to sweep the Padres this weekend, tying the season series, the first tiebreaker to determine the Cup winner is run differential — San Diego won that previous series by a combined seven runs. The second tiebreaker is EV (short for Exit Velocity and Eddie Vedder) – the team with the highest exit velocity recorded on a hit will win the Vedder Cup. Dominic Canzone’s 114.1 mph double currently holds the lead should that second tiebreaker come into play.

The Padres lineup was supposed to run through their quintet of stars: Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, and Jackson Merrill. Thus far, only Bogaerts has been above league average; he’s currently running a 117 wRC+, his highest mark since 2023, his first season in San Diego. The biggest mystery is what happened to Tatis’s power; he hasn’t hit a home run yet this season despite maintaining excellent contact quality on his batted balls. Maybe he’s taken his new role as a part-time second baseman too seriously, turning himself into a light-hitting middle infielder.

Probable Pitchers

Updated Stuff+ Explainer 

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From a previous series preview:

Randy Vásquez has spent the last few seasons as a reliable, innings-eating back-end starter for the Padres. Between 2023 and ‘24, he had the lowest strikeout rate among all qualified starters, though his ERA was a decent 4.27. All of a sudden, he’s throwing two ticks harder this year and he’s more than doubled his strikeout rate. The extra oomph on his pitches is obviously great, but it’s particularly helpful for Vásquez because of his seven-pitch repertoire. Discerning which of those seven pitches is heading towards the plate is a lot easier when you only have to worry about a 93 mph fastball rather than 95 mph heat. With the threat of a true, bat-missing heater in his back pocket, his entire arsenal becomes more effective because he has so many looks he can present to the batter.

With injuries ravaging their starting rotation, the Padres signed Lucas Giolito a few weeks ago with the hope that he’d be able to ramp up pretty quickly to provide some relief for the pitching staff. After four minor league starts, he’s ready to go and San Diego will be activating him for his season debut on Saturday. Giolito was a solid mid-rotation starter for Boston last year in a return to form after a few miserable years marred by injury and ineffectiveness. It wasn’t too long ago that he was the ace of the White Sox rotation, though that ceiling is probably past him. His best pitches are a tight slider and a straight changeup. Both of those secondary offerings play off his fastball to earn their deception which means the deterioration of his heater has some outsized knock-on effects on the rest of his repertoire.

From a previous series preview:

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I can only assume that Walker Buehler’s 2019 and ‘21 seasons are doing a lot of heavy lifting for his reputation as he’s bounced between three different teams over the last two seasons. He put up 5.1 and 5.6 fWAR in those two campaigns but underwent Tommy John surgery in 2022. He hasn’t been the same since and he was legitimately one of the worst pitchers in baseball last year. His four-seam fastball was one of the best in baseball at his peak but it’s lost a ton of its carry and just isn’t an effective pitch anymore. He’s tried to adjust by deepening his repertoire and mixing in all of his secondary pitches a lot more often. It didn’t work in Boston last year, but the Padres desperately needed starting pitchers this spring, so they’re giving Buehler another shot to see if he can figure things out.

The Big Picture:

It’s “regional” rivalry weekend across baseball which means the two Texas teams are playing each other and the A’s are rekindling their Bay Area rivalry with San Francisco in Sacramento.