Cleveland Browns general manager Andrew Berry has received considerable praise for his work during the offseason.
Berry rebuilt an aging offensive line through free agency and a trade, before capping it off by drafting Spencer Fano, Austin Barber, and Parker Brailsford. Berry also added much-needed help at wide receiver with the selections of KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston, and built depth at tight end by selecting Joe Royer and Carsen Ryan.
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That is all well and good, and certainly is better than an alternative scenario where the moves are universally panned. But it is only the beginning.
The real work is now in the hands of head coach Todd Monken and his coaching staff, who are getting their first look at several of the new guys at this weekend’s rookie minicamp. Everyone will be on the field together during the mandatory minicamp in June, then Monken and the coaches will put the finishing touches on this year’s squad during training camp and the preseason.
While it all looks good on paper, the real question that won’t be answered until this fall is how much better the roster really is. The Browns are coming off a five-win season that could have been nine or 10 wins if not for crucial breakdowns that doomed the team. (Of course, the final win total was inflated by two meaningless victories at the end of the season, so things were really as bad as they seemed.)
Everyone has their own prediction model for how successful a team will be once the final rosters are in place, and The Athletic’s Austin Mock is no exception, as he explains:
My model has compiled all the rosters as they stand after the NFL Draft and ranked them from best to worst. To do this, the model uses various metrics and assigns a projection to each player to show their impact on a single game. Of course, positional value is quite important, which means, for example, that quarterback Josh Allen is worth a lot more to his team than running back Bijan Robinson, even though both sit atop their respective positions.
From there, Mock ranks every team based on expected margin of victory, which indicates how many points each team is expected to win or lose by against an average NFL roster.
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And in the case of the Browns, the news is not good as Cleveland comes in at No. 29 with an expected margin of loss of minus-5.2 points, ahead of only the Arizona Cardinals, New York Jets, and Miami Dolphins.
While disappointing, it is hard to argue against Mock’s reasoning:
New year, same Browns. My model loved what Cleveland did in the draft, which should help the roster going forward. But the team lacks a quarterback who has played anywhere above replacement level in quite some time. Maybe Deshaun Watson will turn back the clock, but I’m not holding my breath.
Cleveland does have some young, albeit unproven, talent at the skill positions and offensive tackle, to pair with what should be a good defense behind Myles Garrett.
The good news is the Browns have made what looks to be considerable improvement across the roster, especially on the offensive side of the ball. And while this year’s draft class looks promising, no one knows how it will play out until they actually hit the field.
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The worst part, as it has been for decades, is that the Browns still do not have an answer at the game’s most important position, and until that changes, they are never going to win at a significant level.
Of course, being at the bottom of any ranking means there is nowhere to go but up. Right?
It is obviously early, but how are you feeling about the roster? Let everyone know in the comments!
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