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UFC 328 starts this weekend with an action-packed fight card headlined by the middleweight championship bout between title holder Khamzat Chimaev and challenger Sean Strickland. Chimaev enters Saturday night’s main event from the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey as a heavy favorite to defeat Strickland in his first title defense since winning the belt last August. In the co-main event, flyweight champion Joshua Van defends his belt against Japan’s Tatsuro Taira.
With all of the attention on the fights in New Jersey this weekend, there is sure to be plenty of betting opportunities on what could be a surprisingly entertaining card with several striker vs. grappler matchups.
The Sporting News has you covered with everything you need to know to bet on the UFC this weekend ahead of a jam-packed double championship fight card. And if you’re a new bettor or joining a sportsbook for the first time, make sure to take advantage of any new user welcome bonuses outlined below.
How to bet on UFC 328
The main event of UFC 328 features middleweight champion Khamzat Chimaev going up against former middleweight champion Sean Strickland. The bout is Chimaev’s first fight since defeating Dricus du Plessis in the main event of UFC 319 last August. Chimaev is currently undefeated at 15-0 with six knockouts and six submission victories. Meanwhile, Strickland also enters Saturday’s main event after coming away victorious in his last fight. Strickland knocked out Anthony Hernandez in the third round and also had a split-decision victory over Paulo Costa. His only two losses in the past three years were against du Plessis.
As a heavy favorite at -575, it’s easy to see why Chimaev is expected to win. In this classic grappler vs. striker matchup, there’s really no evidence to prove Strickland can stand a chance against the ground game onslaught of Chimaev.
1. Choose your sportsbook and claim your welcome bonus
First, choose the sportsbook that you want to use. There are plenty of sportsbooks that offer odds and props on UFC fights including, DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars, Fanatics and bet365.
Each of these sportsbooks has a welcome bonus for new users who want to get some extra perks while betting on the fighting action this weekend. First, create an account as sportsbooks typically require age verification, identity verification and geolocation services enabled. Then, deposit money into your account using the allowed deposit methods that your sportsbook allows. Find the UFC event that you want to bet on by selecting the MMA or UFC tab on the app or website.
MORE: Reviewing the best sportsbook promos and bonuses
2. Learn the main UFC bet types
In order to understand how to bet on UFC, you must have knowledge of how to read UFC betting odds. While the difference between UFC betting and betting on other sports is not that different, there are some nuances to be aware of to give you the best chance for success. These are different types of bets that you can have at your disposal.
Moneyline/odds to win
This is a straight moneyline bet and is among the most popular and easiest to understand. It is a straight-up wager on which fighter you believe will win the bout.
Round totals or over/under rounds
A round total bet is another type of straightforward bet on when you think a fight will end. If a round total is set at 2.5 rounds, if you bet the under, you think the fight will end before the mid-point of the third round. And if you bet the over, that means that you believe the fight will end after the third round. However, its important to pay attention to whether a fight is scheduled for three or five rounds. Most championship fights and Fight Night card main events are five-round bouts, while every other type of fight is a standard three rounds.
Method of victory
Not only can you bet on the fighter you want to win and in how many rounds, but you can also bet on the way in which that fighter wins. You can bet on a fighter to win by KO/TKO, submission, decision or even draw or no contest. These bets tend to pay more that a straight moneyline bet.
3. Research
Building a solid UFC betting process isn’t just about picking the “better fighter.” For serious UFC bettors the process combines tape study, stats, matchup analysis and value.
The first step to doing research is to analyze the matchup style. The main event of UFC 328 features an elite wrestler in champion Khamzat Chimaev against a traditional striker in Sean Strickland. Strickland doesn’t have a strong fight history against wrestlers, and Chimaev is coming off a dominant unanimous decision victory over Dricus Du Plessis in which he successfully had 12 takedowns. This matchup is quite common in UFC matchmaking, as regardless of the superior striking skills and cardio-heavy fight style of Strickland, his ability to defend takedowns and get up off the ground will determine whether the fight with Chimaev ends early or goes to decision. Also, make sure to use fight statistics carefully. Some of the useful metrics you can use include significant strikes, takedown accuracy, takedown defense, control time, submission attempts and striking differential. The key here is the numbers can be misleading against weaker opponents and just one dominant fight can easily skew averages.
4. Place your bet
The final step of the UFC betting process is actually placing your bet. You can do that by selecting the bet that you want to make, whether it be fighter moneyline, over/under rounds, fight to go the distance, method of victory or parlays. Once you tap the odds, the selection will go into your bet slip. Then, enter a bet amount and see the potential profit you can make. Usually, the sportsbook will calculate the payout automatically. Finally, make sure you review your bet before you hit submit. Check the odds, verify the bet type and confirm your stake size.
MORE: Complete guide on how to bet on UFC
Best UFC betting sites
- DraftKings Sportsbook: One of the best sites or apps for betting on the UFC; offers a number of UFC-specific promos for users.
- FanDuel Sportsbook: Widely considered one of the best apps for UFC betting because of its clean interface, live betting speed and strong parlay features.
- BetMGM Sportsbook: Offers a variety of UFC and MMA betting options; one of the most complete sportsbooks available.
- Caesars Sportsbook: Reliable, straightforward UFC betting option, but best for causal and mid-level bettors.
- Fanatics Sportsbook: Becoming a serious UFC betting option, especially for bettors that like rewards and mobile useablity.
- bet365 Sportsbook: Official sportsbook for UFC; for serious bettors that like the international markets — offers the best live betting options.
Best UFC 328 promos
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UFC bet types
Unlike other sports, UFC betting has a lot more variety then many people know. Its not just about who wins or loses, but the multiple layers of bets that can be made based on outcome, method and timing. Here are the main types of UFC bet types explained:
- Moneyline bet: This is the simplest bet. You pick the fighter who you think will win the fight. In certain rare cases this can include a draw/no contest outcome. This is by far the most common UFC bet.
- Method of victory bet: This is a bet on how the fight ends, not just who wins. Some common options available are a stoppage by KO/TKO, submission or decision (the judges’ scorecards)
- Round betting: This bet is a prediction on when a fight ends or how long it will last. You can bet on if a fight will end in Round 1, 2 or 3 if its a bout or non-main event. And you can bet on if a fight will end in Round 4 or 5 if you are betting on a main event or championship fight.
- Over/Under rounds (total rounds): This is a bet on whether the fight goes longer or shorter than the number set by the sportsbook. Examples are if a fight goes over 2.5 rounds or under 1.5 rounds. These are often one of the most popular UFC prop bets.
- Prop bets (fighter-specific stats): These are “extra” bets about performance, like if a fighter lands more strike, scores a knockdown, the fight ends in the first 60 seconds or a fighter wins in Round 1.
- Same Game Parlays (SGPs): Combine multiple UFC bets into one ticket.
- Live betting (in-play UFC bets): These are bets that you make while the fight is happening. Examples of these are next round winner, if a fight ends in next 60 seconds and live moneyline shifts during a fight.
MORE: What to know about UFC bet types
UFC 328 expert picks
Main event pick: Khamzat Chimaev (-575) vs. Sean Strickland
Chimaev lands 4.04 significant strikes per minute and has a 60% strike accuracy mark. He also averages 5.29 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, landing 12 against Dricus du Plessis. That was his first fight to make it to five rounds.
Chimaev was destined for superstardom since his UFC debut, before a COVID-19 infection affected his career. Still, he’s a killer, using ground and pound to decimate the opposition. One thing to question is whether he will have a reliable gas tank after the second round.
Strickland lands 6.04 significant strikes per minute, landing 730 in five fights. He has a 42% strike accuracy mark. The man with the mouth is known for moving forward and providing pressure. He is against going for the takedown, instead opting to “fight like a man.”
Strickland’s game plan can be telegraphed, but several men have still been halted in their tracks. Can he stop Chimaev’s takedown game and tire him out? Or will Chimaev be too much for Strickland? This rivalry fight will see who has the cooler head.
It’s believed Chimaev leaves all non-fight issues outside the cage and can focus on the task at hand. That may spell trouble for Strickland. That’s why it’s believed Chimaev will pull out the win. Strickland may make things interesting at first, but Chimaev should overcome any form of adversity and come out on top.
Prediction: Chimaev via unanimous decision — Daniel Yanofsky
Co-main event pick: Joshua Van vs. Tatsuro Taira (-162)
Van is coming off a Fighter of the Year-like 2025, ending with a title win against Alexandre Pantoja. He was losing in strikes until Pantoja injured himself, so it’s unknown how the fight would have actually gone.
Van has proven he has plenty of gas in the tank. Before the Pantoja fight, he landed a combined 329 significant strikes in two fights. He lands 8.84 significant strikes per minute and has a strike accuracy mark of 56%.
Taira lands 2.94 significant strikes and is a wizard on the floor, averaging 3.12 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. He can either outland the competition or ragdoll them on the floor and take them out.
Taira has more levels to his game than Van. His elite grappling could be enough to overcome Van’s 81% defense mark. Van will try to overwhelm with volume, but Taira can attack from all angles, leading to what could be his hand being raised and being announced as the new king of flyweights.
Prediction: Taira via submission (round three) — Daniel Yanofsky
Best over/under pick: Chimaev vs. Strickland, 2.5 rounds (+100)
This fight is going to end quickly. Anyone who has seen Chimaev’s work knows that is his game. He is known for securing some of the fastest takedowns in the UFC. His ability to land a takedown within the first 15 seconds of a fight has been called one of the most unstoppable moves in MMA. Expect this fight to be no different, and if Chimaev lands that initial takedown quickly, I don’t see Strickland getting up. This is a good value bet at +100 because all of the other method of victory bets are at juiced odds. Here, the likely submission victory is still covered and you just need him to do it in under three rounds, which is plenty of time for one of the best ground specialists we’ve ever seen in UFC history.
Prediction: Chimaev vs. Strickland under 2.5 rounds — James Best
Best parlay pick: King Green, Sean Brady, Chimaev moneylines (+125)
One of my favorite ways to bet UFC fights is to parlay fighters to win. I like to keep it to three or four. Trying to correctly predict more than four fights or get the entire main card right is just unlikely, even on a card this deep. Two of the fights in this parlay include heavily juiced odds in Green (-425 to win) and Chimaev (-525). Green is fighting a seasoned Jeremy Stevens who returned to the UFC last year after several years fighting in Bare Knuckle Fighting Championships. However, Stevens hasn’t won a UFC fight since 2018, and while Green’s record is also filled with losses, its hard to see him dropping what should be a stand-up banger with a fairly weak opponent.
As for Brady vs. Buckley, that fight is more of a toss up. Buckley has proven he can be a contender in the Welterweight division, with wins over Colby Covington and Stephen Thompson. However, he struggled against a very game former champ in Kamaru Usman last year. Meanwhile, Brady is coming off a submission victory over former champ Leon Edwards, and his wrestling game is very dangerous.
If Brady keeps the fight standing, Buckley will have more of a chance. But if Brady mixes in the ground and stand-up, its safe to expect him to walk away with either a decision or submission victory over Buckley Saturday night.
Prediction: King Green, Sean Brady, Chimaev all win as parlay cashes at +125 — James Best
Best upset pick: Jim Miller (+250) vs. Jared Gordon
Heading into his 47th UFC contest, Miller lands 2.92 significant strikes per minute. He also averages 1.50 takedowns landed per minute. Miller is one of the most durable fighters out there, as the 42-year-old is 3-3 in his last six fights, facing only tough competition since 2023.
Gordon lands 5.64 significant strikes and averages 1.74 takedowns landed. He’s known for his striking and has a 53% accuracy mark.
It’s a fight between two veterans who have faced similar competition, so they are on an even level. Gordon can get aggressive and attempt to strike Miller down, but Miller has only been stopped with strikes twice in his career. If Miller can land punches of his own to stun Gordon, bring him to the floor and maintain dominant position, Miller should earn his 39th win.
Prediction: Miller via unanimous decision — Daniel Yanofsky
Best prop pick: Van vs. Taira to go the distance (+140)
This might be one of the toughest fights to predict on this card, and its sure to be a banger. I don’t know why Joshua Van is an underdog, even though he’s the champion. Perhaps the betting public doesn’t believe he should even be the champ after winning the belt by medical stoppage after Alexander Pantoja broke his arm in the first round in his last fight. Still, if Van or Taira wins, it will be on the judges’ scorecards for sure. Both fights have enough to withstand each other on their feet and on the ground, and at plus odds, regardless of who you like, this is a good bet to take to enjoy the fun without picking a winner.
Prediction: Van vs. Taira to go the distance — James Best
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UFC 328 odds
All odds are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook:
Main events
- Main event: Khamzat Chimaev (-575) vs. Sean Strickland (+425)
- Co-main event: Tatsuro Taira (-162) vs. Joshua Van (+136)
Main card
- Alexander Volkov (-142) vs. Waldo Cortes Acosta (+120), heavyweights
- Sean Brady (-170) vs. Joaquin Buckley (+142)
- King Green (-425) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+330)
Prelims
- Prelims: Ateba Gautier (-1100) vs. Ozzy Diaz (+700)
- Prelims: Yaroslav Amosov (-192) vs. Joel Alvarez (+160)
- Prelims: Grant Dawson (-166) vs. Mateusz Rebecki (+140)
- Prelims: Jared Gordon (-310) vs. Jim Miller (+250)
- Prelims: Marco Tulio (-185) vs. Roman Kopylov (+154)
Early prelims
- Early prelims: Pat Sabatini (-205) vs. William Gomis (+170)
- Early prelims: Baisangur Susurkaev (-700) vs. Djorden Santos (+500) middleweights
- Early prelims: Jose Ochoa (-170) vs. Clayton Carpenter (+1402)
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