The Pittsburgh Penguins are about to enter what could be (and perhaps should be) a fascinating offseason. Probably one of the more fascinating offseasons they have had in years.
There is the Evgeni Malkin situation looming.
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There is the fact the Penguins, coming off a surprising playoff appearance, have to wrestle with the reality that they were, in fact, a playoff team, and are also still needing to get younger and look toward the future.
There is Kyle Dubas again insisting he wants to build a championship team and not a team that simply makes the playoffs and loses in the first round.
If the first two years of the Dubas are any indication of what is ahead, you can probably expect a lot of roster movement and a lot of trades. And that is not necessarily a bad thing. The Penguins also have a pretty significant amount of salary cap space to work with, the ability to easily create more if they sell any additional players off the roster that are still under contract, and a lot of future draft picks to potentially deal from.
So what, exactly, should they do with it?
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For starters, I will repeat what I said on Monday and emphatically point out I have zero interest in the unrestricted free agent market. The only thing free agency should be utilized for is filling out cheap depth or taking on cheap reclamation projects that can be rebuilt and potentially flipped. Paying Alex Tuch or Darren Raddysh $10 million per year doesn’t do anything to help you now or in the future. That’s a “get to the playoffs and lose in the first round” move.
No. No. No. No. No. No. No. No.
Just pass on all of it.
Stay out of it.
Just throw the UFA list away on July 1 and start looking at it again on July 4 or 5 to see who is left.
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Aggressive trading is the way to go. Aggressively selling for more assets, and aggressively buying to potentially get the type of impact player the Penguins are still lacking for the long haul.
So with that in mind, is there a path for them to potentially go after a big fish this offseason in the trade market given some of the names that could be available? I also say this knowing full well that trade rumors and trade speculation rarely, if ever, actually turn into blockbuster trades. We go through this every trade deadline and offseason where the insiders tell us the big names that are available, we try to guess what they will go for, and then nobody actually goes anywhere.
But maybe this time will be different.
Let’s look at some options.
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The “in your dreams” players
Jason Robertson, Dallas Stars. I say “dream scenario” here because this is probably all it will ever be. But this is the type of player that should be at the top of the Penguins wish list if they did want to do something bold and aggressive. He is still in his mid-20s. He is one of the best players in hockey. He could be a franchise centerpiece for probably the next seven or eight years. They have the salary cap space to pay him whatever he wants. And it is for almost all of those reasons that the Stars would be insane to move him. I know the salary cap exists, but they should be moving OTHER people to make sure he stays. And I suspect they will do exactly that. It would also likely cost you Ben Kindel as a starting point. And at the risk of saying something controversial, this is the one player potentially available that I think I would be okay with that. But it’s not likely going to come to that. It will probably stay in your dreams.
Robert Thomas, St. Louis Blues. I think Thomas could be a little more attainable than Robertson, just because the Blues are in kind of a no-man’s land where they are not particularly good and might actually be looking to re-tool things a little bit with their core. He’s not quite Robertson, but I still think he can be an impact player for a long time. He is one of the best playmakers in hockey and signed long-term to a fairly team-friendly contract. But again … the team has to actually WANT to trade him and the cost will be high. Ben Kindel high? Maybe. Maybe you can get away with multiple draft picks and a different young player/prospect, even if it’s a top prospect. I also feel like this could be one of those situations where you deal somebody off of your own roster (Karlsson? Rakell?) in order to collect more assets that could be applied to another trade.
I am also okay dealing prospects, even at this stage of where the Penguins are, because most of these guys are not going to play for the next contending Penguins team. Some of them are going to offer you their most value as trade chips. Especially if it is the right player. Do the Penguins have the right prospects to entice a team into that type of trade? Again … this is why he is in the dream category.
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Matthew Knies, Toronto Maple Leafs. Knies has been mentioned in trade speculation going back to the trade deadline, and with the Maple Leafs winning the NHL Draft Lottery on Tuesday and likely adding another forward into the mix, Knies would be a logical option to move for the much-needed defense help the Maple Leafs are craving. I think there’s a chance he gets traded. He is only 23 years old, already really good and already signed long-term. I just don’t think the Penguins have the defensemen Toronto would want or need.
The buyer beware category
Brady Tkachuk, Ottawa Senators. Tkachuk is tired of his name being in trade speculation, but brother, your name is in trade speculation and you are responsible for a lot of that. But I think I am out on him. I like the IDEA of Brady Tkachuk a lot more than I like the reality of Brady Tkachuk. He is a very good player. Maybe even better than very good. But he is also at a point where I think his perceived value across the NHL is higher (and perhaps significantly so) than his actual on-ice value. There are a lot of teams and general managers in the league that would crawl over miles broken glass and random lego pieces to get him on their roster because they see TKACHUK written in bright lights, and that’s just not a bidding war I want to get into. He’s not Matthew Tkachuk. You are not building a championship level team around him. Given all of that, I’d say this dude has New York Ranger written all over him. Let Chris Drury worry about that and make it his problem.
Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs. What a chaotic week for the Maple Leafs. Chaotic front office hires. Auston Matthews saying he is not sure he will be back next season and that he wants to see what direction the offseason goes in. Then they go and win the freaking NHL Draft lottery. Let’s be honest, there is a 99.9 percent chance he is a Maple Leaf next season, but in the event that he does somehow become available this is another situation where I like the idea of it a lot more than the reality of it. I am concerned about the wrist injury. I am concerned about the fact that he has been “really good” the past two years and not “really great.” I am concerned he is going to be 29 next season and due for a new contract in two years. I would be concerned at the price. I am not sure he fits into whatever timeline the Penguins should be on.
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The reclamation project
Elias Pettersson, Vancouver Canucks. Let’s get weird. What type of players has Kyle Dubas made an effort to acquire over the past two years?
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Bad contracts teams do not want.
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Talented players that have not worked out as planned/hope in their current environment. Some have worked out here better than others.
With that said, have I got the player for you, because Elias Pettersson fits BOTH of these categories.
The contract is … not great. The recent production, given the contract is … even worse.
But here’s what you have working in your favor: There is obviously an elite talent somewhere in that body. Vancouver has been about as grim of a situation as there is in the NHL and if there is anybody that can use a fresh start it is this freaking guy. It’s also probably not going to cost you much in the way of assets because there’s probably not many teams in the league willing to take on that contract or have the ability to take on that contract. I’m not saying it’s high on my wish list. I am saying I think it’s an option at least worth exploring and discussing. I could be talked into it.
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The likely path
Restricted free agents. I am not even necessarily talking offer sheets, but simply trades involving other team’s RFAs. Remember that salary cap crunch Dallas is dealing with in order to keep Jason Robertson? Maybe that costs them Mavrik Bourque. It might cost you a first-round pick and a decent prospect (think K’Andre Miller trade), but you’re getting a 20-goal scorer that still has some serious untapped potential.
Cole Perfetti? A talented player that hasn’t quite put it all together in his current spot while still flashing top-line potential? While also playing for a team that is entering a desperate offseason and likely to do something dumb? Sounds like a Pittsburgh Penguin already.
You need more young players on defense. Are Simon Nemec or Brandt Clarke long-term fits in New Jersey or Los Angeles? I feel like Nemec is probably more attainable than Clarke, but the Kings are, after all, run by Ken Holland, and he did trade Jordan Spence last offseason so he could pay Brian Dumoulin and Cody Ceci, so who knows? Sometimes you have to target the general manager more than the player.
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There is also the strong possibility somebody that is not even on anybody’s radar gets moved. Either way, we are probably looking at some big roster movement this offseason, and given the resources the Penguins have to work with there are some really intriguing possibilities.
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