Canadiens On The Brink Of Taking Commanding Lead

The Montreal Canadiens are halfway there, as Bon Jovi once sang. They’ve won two games in their best-of-seven series against the favorite and experienced Tampa Bay Lightning, but the last two wins will be even harder to get as the Bolts are sure to up the tempo as they get pushed closer to elimination. Tonight’s game will be a pivotal one; there’s a huge difference between going back to Florida with a commanding 3-1 lead and heading back with a 2-2 tie.

Historically, the Lightning has a good record in Game 4 of a series, 23-16 for a .590 winning percentage, but it’s even better when said fourth game is on the road, they are 14-7 for a .666 winning percentage. However, their stats are a lot less enviable when they are trailing 2-1 in a series. Then, they are 6-8 for a measly .429 winning percentage, and it’s even worse on the road, where they are 3-6 for a lower .333 winning percentage.

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However, the Canadiens’ outlook historically is even worse. They are 61-64 in Game 4 of a series for a .488 winning percentage, and at home, they are 19-27 for an even worse .413 winning percentage. There is some good news for Canadiens’ fans, however. When they have a 2-1 lead in a series, their record goes up to 39-11, which is a .780 winning percentage, and it’s even better at home, where they are 29-5, for a .853 winning percentage.

Given the result of the last game, it’s probably fair to expect the Canadiens to have not only the same roster, but the same lines and pairings. Despite his first line being muzzled by the Bolts, Martin St-Louis has made it clear that he trusts his first line to find a way to produce, essentially because they are elite player.

Game three made it look like Jon Cooper was a clown in another life; his ability to juggle his lines is second to none, and even on the road, he was able to get the matchup he wanted, largely because the Lightning kept having the upper hand at the faceoff circle. Nick Suzuki had only a 35.7% success rate in the faceoff circle. It’s much easier for the other team to change a couple of players on the fly when they have puck possession.

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It could be an idea for St-Louis to use the same strategy he often uses in overtime in the regular season: send a draw specialist alongside Suzuki to win the faceoff, then have him change right after as they go up the ice. Jake Evans had a 66.7% success rate in the faceoff department on Friday, winning eight of his 12 draws, while Phillip Danault had an off night, winning just one of his five draws. Danault’s numbers were much better in Game 2 where he had a 66.7% success rate, while Evans was at 53.8%. Meanwhile, Suzuki was at 41,9% in Game 2 and had a surprising 71,4% success rate in the opening game.

If the Canadiens lose the draw, it’s not a big problem since both Danault and Evans are very good defensive forwards. Of course, that would give less ice time to Cole Caufield, but it might be worth trying, just to up the Canadiens’ top line’s chances of gaining puck possession and mounting a good attack.

Of course, the Canadiens have been able to grab two wins even if their top line wasn’t producing at even strength, but it stands to reason that their lives would be much easier if they could find a way to kickstart its production. However, the match unfolds, though, we should be in for yet another exciting bout between the two teams. This series is the only one that has needed overtime in all of its games so far, and it wouldn’t be surprising if it happened again.

The game is scheduled for 7:00 PM on Sunday, and you can catch it on CBC, TVAS, SNE, SNO, SNP, ESPN, and The Spot. Brandon Blandina and Wes McCauley are set to officiate, while CJ Murray and Jonny Murray will be the linemen. Brittany Kennell will be on national anthem duty.