2026 NBA Championship Odds: Spurs Rise After Wembanyama Suffers Concussion

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The San Antonio Spurs first-round series against the Portland Trail Blazers was supposed to be a cake walk, and it started that way with a Game 1 win and a big effort from superstar Victor Wembanyama.

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Game 2 was much different, however.

The Spurs blew a late lead, and more importantly, Wemby left the game with a concussion after taking a hard fall early in the night. He’s now in concussion protocol, and his status for Game 3 (and beyond) is unknown as of Thursday morning.

Here are the latest NBA Championship odds to win the Larry O’Brien Trophy, as the Spurs join the rest of the league in trailing OKC at the top of the NBA odds board.

🏆 2026 NBA Championship odds

Odds updated as of 4-23, courtesy of bet365, one of our best betting sites. Sign up with our bet365 promo code, or get one of our other sportsbook promos.

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The Thunder’s odds have moved from +230 before the season began to +105 before the playoffs — and after an emphatic 35-point win in Game 1, they have moved to -130.

Behind OKC are the Spurs (+650 following Wemby’s injury) and Celtics (+650), both of which lost their respective Game 2s at home, followed by the Nuggets (+1200) and Cavaliers (+1400).

Spurs odds movement following Wemby’s concussion

San Antonio’s title odds moved from +500 to +650 overnight. Some of that is the Game 2 loss and the series now being 1-1, but more of that is the fact that the Spurs may have to play much more of this opening round without Wembanyama.

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He must remain in concussion protocol for at least 48 hours before being cleared by team doctors, and while there’s a chance he plays in Game 3 on Friday, Game 4 seems like a more likely return spot.

📈 2026 NBA Finals odds over time

Here’s a visual representation of how the NBA championship odds have evolved since the offseason.

🔮 NBA Championship prediction

Oklahoma City has the cleanest runway to be the best team in 2026: an MVP-caliber engine in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander entering the heart of his prime, a two-way star wing in Jalen Williams, and a 7-footer in Chet Holmgren whose blend of rim protection, spacing, and feel supercharges modern schemes. That trio already drives elite half-court efficiency and a top-tier defense, and it’s backed by organizational continuity that reliably turns role players into playoff-useful pieces. Holmgren’s strength and timing appear to be fully NBA-hardened, unlocking more switching and fewer help-and-recover compromises, while SGA’s mid-range and foul-drawing remain matchup-proof in May and June.

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Depth and optionality push the Thunder over the top. They can win big or small, play five-out without sacrificing rim protection, and toggle between pressure defense and conservative coverages depending on opponent. Crucially, they still have surplus picks and cap flexibility to plug the inevitable holes that show up in a long postseason, whether that’s a second unit scorer, another stretch big, or a specialist wing.

So, why did I decide to sprinkle half a unit on the Spurs in late February? Health. San Antonio was clicking at just the right time while Oklahoma City dealt with injuries to SGA, Holmgren, Jalen Williams, and Ajay Mitchell. That was a lot of star power riding the pine.

I added another half unit at the end of March as the Spurs moved to within 2.5 games of the Thunder on the strength of a dominant 13-1 stretch. Consider San Antonio my insurance policy.

With the postseason set to start, let’s sprinkle half a unit on someone in the East — and why not the No. 1 seed at 20/1! Cade Cunningham is only getting healthier after returning from a collapsed lung suffered a month ago, and Detroit will avoid the likes of the Celtics and Knicks until a potential conference final matchup. This could shape up to be a great hedge opportunity for a) if the Pistons are favored in the ECF and b) we could have both sides of a potential NBA Finals… at plus money.

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💰 Sportsbook betting splits and insights

Highest ticket percentage
•    Nuggets 8.8%
•    Thunder 8.7%
•    Mavericks 8.2%
 
Highest handle percentage
•    Thunder 17.9%
•    Mavericks 16.3%
•    Lakers 13.3%
 
Biggest liability
•    Mavericks 
•    Lakers
•    Warriors

Data courtesy of BetMGM.

The Nuggets may not have the NBA’s best record, but they do have the ultimate weapon in Nikola Jokic. The three-time MVP is averaging a triple-double for the second consecutive season and gives Denver a puncher’s chance in any series. No other big man can match his skill set and versatility, making the Nuggets one of the league’s toughest outs when they get on a roll.

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2026 NBA Championship opening odds

No team has overachieved more this season than the Pistons, who entered the 2025-26 campaign with distant +7000 odds.

Detroit shocked pundits by racing out to a 15-2 record thanks to a deep, athletic roster and the emergence of Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren, both of whom were named All-Stars. Their growing chemistry is the secret sauce that could power Detroit to a deep postseason run.

NBA Championship trends

• Since the Warriors’ 2018 repeat, the NBA has seen seven different champions in seven years. This is the longest such streak since the late 1970s.

• 22 of the last 25 champions ranked in the Top 10 in Defensive Rating during the regular season.

• 23 of the last 25 champions were Top 5 in either Offensive or Defensive efficiency.

• Since 2019, nearly every champion has been led by a non-U.S. superstar or a team built on international depth.

🏀 NBA Finals winners since 2000

Odds courtesy of Sports Odds History.

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