Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire: Hitter matchups to exploit and stream in Week 5, based on advanced stats

Last week, we talked about how Pirates’ hitters were going to face juicy matchups. Brandon Lowe (2 HR, .346 BA), Spencer Horwitz (2 HR, .333 BA), Oneil Cruz (1 HR, .200) and Konnor Griffin (3 SB, .308) were the top performers, among others, in Week 4. There won’t always be hits like these, but it’s nice when they do hit, especially when poor-pitching teams align with offensive surges.

We’ll examine the notable schedule notes in the week ahead, including the teams with seven games and some with only five. Then we’ll discuss some shallow- and medium-sized leagues, plus deep league waiver wire hitters to consider.

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Schedule Notes

The toughest pitcher matchups heading into Week 5 include the Rangers, Dodgers, Mariners, Padres, Phillies, Yankees, Cubs, Brewers, Rays, Tigers, Guardians and Blue Jays. Kumar Rocker projects to have a two-start week for the Rangers, but his profile is volatile, so the Yankees and Tigers could take advantage in Week 5.

Like Rocker, the Dodgers have a risky starting pitcher in Justin Wrobleski projected for a two-start week, pitching in Colorado and against the Cubs. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have Patrick Corbin and Eric Lauer pitching earlier in the week against the Angels; there might be some offensive explosions there.

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Furthermore, starting pitchers for Detroit and Tampa Bay have been more hitter-friendly from a K-BB% standpoint in 2026. The Rays play all six games at home, and their home park tends to be more pitcher-friendly, even with Jesse Scholtens, Steven Matz and Nick Martinez being wildcards. However, the Tigers’ starting rotation has several skilled players (Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal and Framber Valdez), so we could see those numbers regress. It’s helpful to see the team-level pitcher skills and who projects to pitch for them.

It’s easy to examine the weakest pitcher matchups, making sense as we head into Week 5. Besides José Soriano, Reid Detmers and Noah Schultz (potentially), the Angels and White Sox pitchers can be favorable for opposing hitters. Pitchers for the Red Sox and Twins feel like the Tigers, where it’s a mixed bag of solid pitchers and volatile ones.

The rest of these rotations have one or two productive and skilled starting pitchers, including Jeffrey Springs, Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers, Mick Abel, Joe Ryan, Eury Pérez, Logan Webb and Landon Roupp. No shade to any pitchers not listed, but more so pointing out that opposing hitters should be able to find success against most of their starting rotations.

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Teams Playing Seven Games in Week 5

• Braves (4 at WSH, 3 vs. PHI)

  • Atlanta faces six of seven right-handed pitchers in Week 5. This benefits Mike Yastrzemski and Dominic Smith. Smith has been on fire with 3 home runs and a .395 batting average (more on him later). Yastrzemski hasn’t been performing well early in 2026, but he has a career 10.1% barrel rate, so there could be some cheap home runs in Week 5.

• Red Sox (1 vs. DET, 3 vs. NYY, 3 at BAL)

  • Boston faces five right-handed pitchers in Week 5. Interestingly, the Red Sox have only faced a couple of left-handed starting pitchers, with Marcelo Mayer sitting against both. Jarren Duran projects as a strong-side platoon option, though he played against one of the lefties early in 2026.

• Cubs (4 vs. PHI, 3 at LAD)

  • It’s probably risky to stream Moisés Ballesteros in a weekly league since the Cubs project to face right-handed pitchers in four out of seven games in Week 5. Ballesteros is the only Cubs’ hitter to sit against all six left-handed starting pitchers early in 2026.

• Rockies (1 vs. LAD, 3 vs. SD, 3 at NYM)

  • The Rockies project to face five out of seven right-handed starting pitchers, including four total games at home in Colorado. It’s a small sample of two games against left-handed starters, but Mickey Moniak sat against both, and Troy Johnston sat in one.

• Tigers (1 at BOS, 3 vs. MIL, 3 at CIN)

  • The Tigers will face five right-handed starting pitchers in Week 5. In the only game when the Tigers faced a left-handed starter, Colt Keith and Kerry Carpenter sat.

• Dodgers (1 at COL, 3 at SF, 3 vs. CHC)

• Phillies (4 at CHC, 3 at ATL)

  • The Phillies face five out of seven right-handed starting pitchers in Week 5, with the only two lefties being Boyd and Imanaga earlier in the week. Philadelphia faced seven left-handed starting pitchers in 2026, and Bryson Stott sat in four of them. Justin Crawford sat in two of the contests against left-handed starting pitchers. Stott and Crawford were the only platoon bats against lefties so far.

• Nationals (4 vs. ATL, 3 at CWS)

  • The Nationals will face a right-handed starting pitcher in four out of seven games in Week 5. Maybe they’re able to take advantage of Reynaldo López, Bryce Elder, Erick Fedde and Sean Burke. Nationals’ hitters have sneakily been the fourth-best in wRC+ (117) behind the Dodgers, Astros and Braves.

Teams Playing Five Games in Week 5

• Diamondbacks (3 vs. CWS, 2 vs. SD)

  • The Diamondbacks’ hitters will face four out of five right-handed starting pitchers in Week 5. Arizona faced a left-handed starting pitcher in five games, Alek Thomas sat in four of them. Since Adrian Del Castillo came up in early April, he sat in three of four games against left-handed starting pitchers. However, with Gabriel Moreno hitting the injured list, maybe Del Castillo plays more often.

• Padres (3 at COL, 2 at ARI)

  • Like the Diamondbacks, the Padres’ hitters project to face four out of five right-handed starting pitchers in Week 5. Besides San Diego’s Opening Day game, Gavin Sheets in four out of the five games they faced a left-handed starting pitcher. Be cautious when streaming Sheets in Week 5.

Shallow- to Medium-League Hitter Waiver Wire (Around 50% or Below)

Jeremiah Jackson, Orioles (51% Rostered)

With Jackson’s hot start, his rostered percentage exploded over the past week. After debuting briefly in the majors in 2025, Jackson was likely an afterthought with several hitters to fit into Baltimore’s lineup. Life comes at you fast with Ryan Mountcastle, Adley Rustchman and Tyler O’Neill injured in April. Jackson has matched his five home runs from 2025 across 183 plate appearances in under 75 plate appearances in 2026. The .341 BABIP fuels his .303 batting average, but he has shown high BABIPs throughout the minors.

Jackson increased his bat speed by over 1 mph (73.2 mph) with an attempt to pull the ball often (53.1%) in 2026. Unfortunately, Jackson has been hitting the ball on the ground 51% of the time in 2026, though he somehow already hit six barrels. Meanwhile, we’ve seen Jackson’s pulled air rate jump to 24.4% in 2026 compared to 10% (2025). It looks like a concerted effort to hit the ball harder in the air in 2026, so scoop him up to stream in Week 5 if available.

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There’s a chance Jackson loses playing time once other players return healthy, but he should still have another productive week or two before then.

Xander Bogaerts, Padres (38% Rostered)

From unknown to known, Bogaerts has been sneakily productive early in 2026. Over the past two seasons, Bogaerts tapped into his pull-side power by pulling the ball over 45% of the time, aligning with an 18-20% pulled air rate. He still shows strong plate discipline with an elite 83.4% contact rate and low 7.3% swinging-strike rate. It’s only a five-game week for the Padres, but it should be a productive one since they face three against the Rockies in Colorado and two versus the Diamondbacks, who have one of the worst pitching teams from a skills standpoint.

Angel Martinez, Guardians (39% Rostered)

Chase DeLauter has been rightfully stealing the airtime for the Guardians, but Martinez has been playing more consistently without platoons. Martinez boasts better plate discipline with a career-best 86% contact rate while pulling the ball more with a 24.1% pulled air rate over the past two seasons. Though Martinez’s average bat speed, around 70-71 mph, hasn’t shifted significantly, his fast swing rate (15.2%) increased by 4-5 points, hinting at attempts to swing faster. Furthermore, it’s worth highlighting Martinez’s 30% stolen base opportunity rate in 2026, up from a career average at 12%. Martinez will be a sneaky source of power and speed.

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Deep-League Hitter Waiver Wire

Dominic Smith, Braves (10% Rostered)

Talk about a repeated post-hype sleeper in Smith after his years with the Mets. The Braves have been using Smith as a strong-side platoon option at DH. Smith’s .341 BABIP has been fueling his .353 batting average, significantly higher than his career BABIP (.299) and batting average (.252). Thankfully, Smith boasts a strong contact rate (83.5%), over five points above his career average, which supports the expected batting averages.

This might be noisy, but the Braves project to face the Philles, who have been allowing high BABIPs over the past two seasons. Furthermore, we highlighted that the Braves will face six out of seven right-handed starting pitchers in Week 5, making Smith a sneaky deep-league option for batting average and counting stats.

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Sam Antonacci, White Sox (10% Rostered)

After the White Sox traded away Lenyn Sosa and designated Dustin Harris for assignment, they called up Antonacci after bringing up Noah Schultz. On the surface, Antonacci’s minor league track record looks like a light version of Nico Hoerner, with solid batting average and stolen bases. Throughout the minors, Antonacci showed near-elite contact rates at 86-88%, suggesting a strong hit tool to build upon. He projects to play every day as the White Sox will face the Diamondbacks and Nationals, two of the worst pitching teams heading into Week 5. Theoretically, this could be similar to production via teammate Chase Meidroth, but unlike Meidroth, Antonacci provides speed.

Mickey Moniak, Rockies (23% Rostered)

The Rockies play four games at home and project to face five out of seven left-handed starting pitchers in Week 5. Moniak has been hitting home runs and remains one of their top strong-slide platoon options. It’s a wild early sample, with Moniak pulling the ball 52.4% of the time and a ridiculously high 61.9% flyball rate in 2026. For context, Moniak’s pull and flyball rates hovered around 45-47% throughout his career.

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The pull rates in 2026 aren’t the outlier, but expect his flyballs to regress to his career norm, as there are diminishing returns when hitters hit too many balls in the air.

Moniak continues to flash above-average bat speed (74.0 mph), aligning with his ability to barrel the ball (career 7.5% barrel rate per plate appearance). Interestingly, Moniak’s contact rates have improved from 72-73% in 2024 and 2025 to 78.4% in 2026, compared to a career average of 70%. Typically, hitters hovering near the 70% contact rate profile tend to be quite risky for strikeouts and whiffs. However, Moniak is making slightly more contact while hitting the ball hard. That’s an optimal combination.

Brandon Marsh (10% Rostered)

Marsh used to be a strong-side platoon option, but he only sat against three left-handed starting pitchers out of the nine the Phillies faced. The Phillies have a full week of seven games, so volume should be in Marsh’s favor. Marsh typically rocked higher BABIPs, with a .320 BABIP in 2026 compared to a .369 career BABIP. He has been pulling the ball more (40.4%) in 2026, five points above his career norm. Most of Marsh’s skills for plate discipline, power and speed look the same to the career averages. That said, Marsh’s additional playing time opens up a path for counting stats, power, speed and batting average into Week 5.