Every year here at PensBurgh we set some over/under predictions for individual Pittsburgh Penguins players, and at the end of every regular season we like to revisit those predictions and see how everybody did.
It is time to revisit those predictions.
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Let’s go back to the start of the 2025-26 NHL season and see what we were thinking for the Penguins’ most prominent players, both new and returning, and see how their performances compared.
The Penguins young players
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Ville Koivunen: Over/Under 20.5 assists
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Rutger McGroarty: Over/Under 15.5 goals
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Owen Pickering: Over/Under 15.5 points
Oh man. Not even close on any of them. This is not necessarily a reflection of the individual players or their development, but a reflection on what direction the season ended up taking.
Everything here was so unexpected that we did not even have Ben Kindel on our NHL radar when we set the young players over/under at the end of August.
Here is what each player actually did at the NHL level:
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Ville Koivunen: 5 assists in 39 games
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Rutger McGroarty: 3 goals in 24 games
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Owen Pickering: 0 assists in 4 games
In most cases there just was not a ton of room for these guys to get an extended look or major role on this yaer’s team because the forward depth was just too good. Koivunen was so impressive at the end of the 2024-25 season that was easy to have relatively high expectations for him. I am not ready to give up on him, but his AHL production has not yet transferred to the NHL. Right now there is a lot of Dominik Simon in him in that he has great underlying numbers, but it does not always pass the eye test or result in points for himself.
I actually like McGroarty’s game at the NHL level quite a bit. His season got off to a delayed start as he was coming back from an injury, but again, the NHL depth was just so much better than anybody could have anticipated that he never really got a look.
Pickering looks like it may not happen for him here.
The Penguins new veteran players
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Anthony Mantha: Over/Under 14.5 goals
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Justin Brazeau: Over/Under 8.5 goals
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Matt Dumba: Over/Under 12.5 points
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Connor Clifton: Over/Under 15.5 points
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Parker Wotherspoon: Over/Under: 5.5 points
While pretty much all of the young players went under, we had some big overs here.
What each player actually did:
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Anthony Mantha: 33 goals in 81 games
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Just Brazeau: 17 goals in 64 games
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Matt Dumba: 3 points in 11 games
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Connor Clifton: 6 points in 50 games
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Parker Wotherspoon: 30 points in 80 games
Mantha more than doubled our pre-season number for him and ended up leading the Penguins with 33 goals. Who saw that coming? Nobody. He might have been the best value signing of any team in the NHL this past offseason. He also played his way into a big contract this summer, whether it is with the Penguins or somebody else.
Brazeau was also a revelation for the Penguins, scoring 17 goals in only 64 games. His production leveled off in the second half, but he still exceeded what most expected for him. Both Mantha and Brazeau set career highs in goals.
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Along the same lines, Wotherspoon also far exceeded what anybody could have expected. He recorded 30 points, 25 more than we anticipated, while becoming a steady complement to Erik Karlsson on the team’s top defense pairing.
Clifton and Dumba were the veteran defensemen brought in so the Penguins could buy some future draft picks from Buffalo and Dallas, with only Clifton playing a major role this season. He did not reach the over/under we had for him. Dumba spent most of the season in the American Hockey League.
The Penguins secondary players
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Rickard Rakell: Over/Under 25.5 goals
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Bryan Rust: Over/Under 30.5 goals
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Tommy Novak: Over/Under 18.5 goals
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Erik Karlsson: Over/Under: 55.5 points
Now we are talking. We ended up getting pretty close with a lot of these.
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What each player actually did:
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Rickard Rakell: 24 goals in 60 games
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Bryan Rust: 29 goals in 72 games
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Tommy Novak: 16 goals in 82 games
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Erik Karlsson: 65 points in 75 games
Rakell did not match his production from a year ago and saw a little bit of regression, but a great second half got him to 24 goals in only 60 games. Had he not missed 22 games you have to imagine he would have easily exceeded the 25.5 goal total. He scored at a 32 goal pace over 82 games.
It is a similar story for Rust who ended up with 29 goals in 72 games. Those 10 missed games probably cost him another 30-goal season.
We were in the right ballpark with Novak, but just missed it by two goals.
Karlsson’s bounce back season resulted in him reaching the 65-point mark and earning team MVP honors.
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The Penguins Core Players
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Sidney Crosby: Over/Under 90.5 points
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Evgeni Malkin: Over/Under 60.5 points
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Kris Letang: Over/Under 35.5 points
We were again pretty close here for the most part.
Here is what each player actually did:
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Sidney Crosby: 74 points in 68 games
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Evgeni Malkin: 61 points in 56 games
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Kris Letang: 34 points in 74 games
Crosby did not reach his over/under mark, mostly due to games missed after the Olympics. When he was on the ice he scored at an 89-point pace over 82 games. He did reach the point-per-game average for yet another season.
Malkin reached his over/under despite the fact he missed 28 games, which is a testament to how outstanding he has been this season offensively.
Letang had a roller coaster season, and at times was a tough watch, but he and Sam Girard have really come on strong during the stretch run. He missed the over/under by one point with eight missed games.
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Egor Chinakhov Goals For Rest Of Season
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We had a bonus over/under in early February given the way Egor Chinakhov was scoring goals following his acquisition from the Columbus Blue Jackets. At the time, he had scored eight goals with 12 total points in his first 18 games. We wanted to see what he would do after that.
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Egor Chinakhov: Over/Under 7.5 Goals For Remainder Of Regular Season
He exceeded it.
What he actually did:
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Egor Chinakhov: 10 more goals for a total of 18 goals in 43 games with the Penguins and 21 goals for the entire season between Columbus and Pittsburgh.
Of all the roster moves general manager Kyle Dubas made over the past year to re-tool this team, there might not be a more significant move than the addition of Chinakhov. He is still younger and just entering his prime years in the NHL. He has enormous talent and star potential. From the moment he arrived he completely transformed the Penguins lineup and added a dimension of speed and skill that had been lacking. Not only did he put everything together from a goal-scoring perspective, he also showed that he is simply an outstanding hockey player that can impact the game in a number of ways. He can score goals and shoot the puck like few others in the NHL. He has exceptional speed and quickness. He is a strong playmaker. He is a much better defensive player than we were initially led to believe. He is just simply a really good hockey player.
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Maybe his shooting percentage regresses a little bit next season. That should not stop him from still being a major contributor. His shot is good enough to maintain a higher shooting percentage than your average player. The shot volume can also still be there to help make up for any regression. He is also just really good in every other area that even with a slight regression in shooting percenatge he will still make a difference in most games and on most shifts. He also did all of this goal-scoring while getting very little power play time with the top unit. Get him out there with them and he could really become a goal-scoring force.
Read the full article here