It’s hard to shake the memories of the Phils’ failures against the Dodgers in last year’s postseason.
A .212 batting average in four games. A .299 on-base percentage. They slugged .358, for an OPS of .657. If a player posted an OPS of .657, that would have put them 139th out of 145 qualified hitters in baseball last season. They hit just three home runs in the series, all of them in their lone victory, 8-2 in Game 3.
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It’s hard to shake those memories. It’s difficult to shake the ghosts of the 2024 NLDS against the Mets, when the offense was even worse, posting a .186/.295/.302 slash line and a .598 OPS. The futility of Games 6 and 7 of the 2023 NLCS against the Diamondbacks left an indelible mark, too.
It’s understandable fans are down on the offense heading into 2026, a lineup that mirrors the ones we’ve watched come up short in October each of the last three seasons.
Everyone is another year older, and time is undefeated. There are worries the bats simply are not good enough to win a championship.
Let me posit a counter-argument. That the offense might actually be… good?
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It’s understandable that we fixate on the October failures, but perhaps we should reflect on how they performed in the regular season last year. They scored the 8th-most runs in the Majors, 5th-most in the NL. Their 212 home runs were 9th-most, and their .759 OPS ranked 4th.
Yes, that’s right. The Phillies had the 4th-highest OPS in Major League Baseball in 2025. And for the first time in the last few seasons, everything was humming beautifully heading into October.
Their .797 OPS after the All-Star Game was 2nd-highest, behind only the Yankees’ .799. They slugged .471, which was the best mark in MLB in the second half. Their 110 homers were 2nd-most, their 340 runs scored were tied for 4th and they were tied for 3rd in wRC+. Every regular except for J.T. Realmuto and Nick Castellanos posted an above average wRC+, with Kyle Schwarber (152), Trea Turner (144), Brandon Marsh (140), Bryson Stott (135), Bryce Harper (133), Harrison Bader (129) and Edmundo Sosa (120) all at least 20% better than league average. All seven of those players had an OPS over .800.
Essentially, the vast majority of the lineup played like All Stars over the final two months of the season.
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The Phillies enter 2026 without a major anchor around their necks, Castellanos, sucking up playing time. It’s no coincidence the offense performed better once his role was reduced. While I remain skeptical his replacement, Adolis Garcia, can improve upon Castellanos’ offense performance, there were encouraging signs late in spring training for the 33-year-old.
After a slow start, Garcia smoked the ball over the final two weeks, finishing with a .275 batting average, two home runs, and a .408 OBP in 40 spring at-bats. Most impressive was newfound plate discipline displayed by Garcia this spring, walking 8 times and striking out in only 5 plate appearances.
There is hope Harper will have a more impactful, “elite” season, in 2026. His late home run at the World Baseball Classic inspires hope. Bryson Stott’s mechanical adjustments that spurred on an .855 second half OPS last year appear to be taking hold. No one should expect a 1.072 OPS from him in the regular season, but it’s encouraging to see him picking up where he left off last season.
Yes, there will still be platoons in some spots. Despite Stott’s improvement, he’ll likely continue to share time with Sosa, and Otto Kemp will split duties in left field with Marsh. And center field remains a question mark. Bader was a breath of fresh air and an offensive injection for a lineup that had gone stale by last year’s trade deadline. Justin Crawford’s solid spring (.250/.291/.346, with 10 runs scored in 18 games) earned him the everyday nod in center, and as the No. 9 hitter, he is not expected to carry the lineup.
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On Monday, the Phillies posted what will most likely be their starting lineup on Opening Day against the Texas Rangers.
Everyone knows Alec Bohm, who also had an outstanding spring down in Clearwater, is miscast as a traditional cleanup hitter. It is a spot in the batting order in which the Phillies received below league average production a season ago, with a .720 OPS that ranked 20th. But they were 9th out of the No. 5 spot, 1st in the No. 6, 13th at No. 7, and 3rd at No. 8.
The top and bottom of the Phillies lineup was one of the best in baseball. That cleanup spot, an admittedly important role, was the only one that was below league average. Maybe they can survive that. Maybe it’ll get better.
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I’m not going to sit here and tell you this offense isn’t going to frustrate us this year. It absolutely will. Here’s the thing; if we zoom out, we’ll realize every other offense and every other fanbase goes through similar frustrations.
Yep, even the Dodgers.
Nationally, analysts are more bullish on the offense. MLB.com recently ranked every lineup and put the Phillies at No. 8. I think everyone would take that. The dream would be a repeat performance of 2025. It was the best year this group has ever had together. They just couldn’t carry it through into October.
I know you’re down on the Phillies’ lineup, but it’s probably going to be better than you think, and may actually be pretty darn good.
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Check out my latest Hittin’ Season podcast, powered by WHYY, where we discussed the lineup, Cristopher Sanchez’ contract extension, and a disastrous start to the season for the Atlanta Braves!
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