The Nationals bolstered their rotation in a big way yesterday when they signed Zack Littell. Once Littell is built up, he should slot in as the Nats number two starter behind Cade Cavalli. This is an exciting addition, and one of the best free agents the Nats have signed in the past few years, but it does leave questions about how the rotation will look.
A rotation that looked like it would be a major question mark is now pretty crowded after adding Littell and Miles Mikolas. While the unit does not have a very high ceiling outside of Cade Cavalli, I actually think the floor is relatively high. I thought the pitching would be a disaster this year, but as I am watching this spring and seeing the late moves, I’m warming up to the staff.
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Littell is actually an interesting story. From 2018 until the middle of 2023, he was an average middle reliever who was inconsistent. However, after the Rays rubbed some of their pixie dust on him, Littell became a solid middle of the rotation starter who went deep into games. He did that by becoming a command specialist who relies on his secondary pitches.
It may take him some time to ramp up, but when he is ready, Zack Littell is a lock to be in the Nats rotation. Cade Cavalli and Foster Griffin have also locked down rotation spots, and I would be surprised if Miles Mikolas does not have a spot as well, at least to start the season. That leaves one spot for Jake Irvin, Josiah Gray, Mitchell Parker, Andrew Alvarez and Brad Lord.
Mitchell Parker has been the least impressive this spring, so I would not be surprised if he starts the year in AAA. Given his versatility, Brad Lord seems likely to be moved to the bullpen. It would be an easy move to make, and Lord is better in the bullpen.
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That leaves Jake Irvin, Josiah Gray and Andrew Alvarez fighting for one spot in the rotation. I think Irvin is the slight favorite right now due to his ability to eat innings. Gray will be in the rotation at some point, but I think he could benefit from a few starts in AAA as he ramps up after missing the past two seasons due to injury. His breaking stuff looks sharp, but the velocity is not all the way back yet for the 28 year old.
If Irvin struggles to start the season, he would be an easy candidate to move out of the rotation for Gray once he is ready. I still think Gray has a slightly higher ceiling than Irvin because his breaking balls are sharper. However, Irvin has been a workhorse for the Nats the past couple seasons despite declining results.
The wild card in all of this is Andrew Alvarez. He dominated in his start yesterday, showing his deep pitch mix and strong command. The crafty lefty dominated a solid Astros lineup, leaning heavily on his curveball. I am not quite sure what the plans are for Alvarez, but he has been impressive this spring.
Alvarez can nibble at times, which leads to high pitch counts. He also does not go deep into games. This could make him a natural candidate to be a swing man, but the Nats already have Brad Lord. Given his performances in September and now this spring, it would be tough to demote Alvarez, but that may be what ends up happening.
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With all this pitching depth, the 4 and 5 starters in this rotation will be under pressure to perform. If Jake Irvin and Miles Mikolas do not hit the ground running, there will be plenty of arms nipping at their heels.
Trevor Williams and DJ Herz will also join the fold at some point this season, once they are healthy. Riley Cornelio and Luis Perales are also power arms in the AAA rotation waiting for their opportunity. There may not be a ton of high end talent, but the Nats rotation has plenty of options. That is not something you could say very often the past few years.
As I wrote yesterday, this pitching staff could be surprisingly decent. There are no proven stars, but there are a lot of intriguing pieces and a new focus on development. A few of these guys are bound to break out, it is just tough to figure out which ones.
With Zack Littell in the fold, there could be a surprising level of competence in this Nats rotation. There is also a healthy level of competition that will force these guys to be on their A game. I am excited to see what this pitching staff has got, and after last season, it would be tough for them to be worse.
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