When it comes to projection models like FanGraphs and PECOTA, the Atlanta Braves have some very high expectations in 2026. However, they’ve still got a ways to go when it comes to convincing some pundits out there — particularly the panel of five people who were chosen to make predictions for USA Today when it comes to the upcoming 2026 season.
According to that crew, the Braves will be fighting with the Mets for second place in the NL East while the Phillies run away with it.
As a matter of fact, this projection has the Braves missing the playoffs altogether by one game, as this would have the Mets facing the Brewers and the Cubs facing the Padres in the Wild Card round with the Dodgers and Phillies getting the bye. USA Today doesn’t figure that the Dodgers are going to just run away with things but they do figure that they’ll still be clear of the rest of the pack in not just the NL but the rest of the pack as well.
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Here’s some of the (brief) reasoning behind USA Today’s prediction for the ‘26 Braves:
GM Alex Anthopoulos generally doesn’t get stuck in the middle, but they’re light on starting pitching and will be missing shortstop Ha-Seong Kim for a minute.
While it is true that the Braves have some question marks with their starting pitching and will also be missing Ha-Seong Kim, I do feel like the Braves have fortified their squad a bit over the course of the offseason to be able to withstand those issues — though Spencer Schwellenbach being out for a significant amount of time certainly complicates things. The Braves could do with another addition to the starting pitching rotation but at the same time, as long as the the entire rotation avoids another collective trip to the 60-Day IL then that alone should boost the Braves’ fortunes in 2025.
With that being said, even the rosiest projection models don’t think that the Braves are going to simply dominate the division, either. Atlanta’s going to have to deal with the Phillies and Mets all season, whether they’re returning to the top of the NL East (and the NL in general) or they’re having to scratch and claw their way into simply making the Postseason.
Anything is on the table for this team when you consider how the past two seasons are gone. The potential is there for a good-to-great season but at the same time, it’s totally understandable if the Braves do end up in a season-long rock fight once again. We’ll see what happens!
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