Somehow, Scottie Scheffler did NOT win last week, though he still almost found himself in a three-way playoff with Chris Gotterup and Hideki Matsuyama while working with his B game. Chances are, that corrects itself this week and he takes down Pebble Beach for the first time.
If you believe that, you’ll have to pay a hefty price, as Scheffler is yet again a huge favorite at 3-1. Our experts are leaning fairly strongly in another direction, however.
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The Golf Digest betting panel is comprised of Pat Mayo of Underdog/Mayo Media Network, Andy Lack of the Inside Sports Network, Ryan Noonan of Betsperts, your two authors and Keith Stewart, the CEO of Read The Line.
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Scroll down for our complete betting analysis of the 2026 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am:
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am picks 2026: Our Experts’ Outright Predictions
Pat Mayo, Underdog/Fantasy National, Mayo Media Network analyst: Russell Henley (33-1, FanDuel) — Great result here a year ago and started off very strong at AMEX. Ideal course fit for Henley, who eats with the short irons and wedges, which he’ll have a heavy dose of at Pebble.
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Keith Stewart, PGA, Read The Line: Russell Henley (33-1, FanDuel) — If you were to build an archetype player for Pebble Beach, it would be Russell Henley. Henley is one of the top wedge players in the field and can handle the elements. Russell finished fifth here last year and specializes in short coastal golf courses. With a signature win under his belt (API), I’m not worried about the moment being too big. In two starts this season, Henley has not finished outside the top 19. Did I happen to mention Russell is an excellent sand player? That will help with 116 bunkers scattered across Pebble Beach Golf Links.
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Ryan Noonan, Content Manager 4for4/Betsperts: Scottie Scheffler (+300, BetMGM) — I used the Rabbit Hole at Betsperts Golf to show us what we already know is true. Dating back to the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational, when Scheffler changed to the mallet-style putter, he’s been on another level. Since that tournament, looking only at events with a strong or very-strong strength-of-field rating, Scheffler is gaining 2.81 strokes on the field per round, nearly 1.2 strokes per round better than second-ranked Rory McIlroy. Tee-to-green, the 1.26-stroke gap (2.51 to 1.25) more than doubles McIlroy’s. Scheffler has gained strokes in 87.5 percent of his 120 rounds in this sample and has gained two-plus in 69.2 percent of those rounds, miles ahead of Xander Schauffele, who’s second at 46.4 percent. We’ve almost become numb to Scheffler’s recent run of dominance. I think this really shows how he’s separated from his peers.
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Stephen Hennessey, Golf Digest managing editor: Russell Henley (25-1, without Scottie Scheffler) — I’ll admit I’m a chicken. I’m scared of the way Scottie Scheffler nearly won in Scottsdale with one of the poorest rounds we’ve seen him play since the 2024 U.S. Open, so I’m hedging with a slight reduction in price. I’ll gladly back Henley at these odds at a venue tailor made for his game. He’s top 10 in SG/approach and SG/tee to green in the past 36 rounds, per the Betsperts Rabbit Hole. And he’s one of the best wedge players in golf, which is so key to playing Pebble well.
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Christopher Powers, Golf Digest senior writer: Maverick McNealy (35-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Squarest play on the board but I don’t care. Squares did great last year. Yes, we know he played here a bunch growing up and he loves the place, and he’s played well here before. I’m more bullish on him this week simply because he’s playing great right now, and over the long term, and he’s long overdue for win No. 2.
Andy Lack, Inside Sports Network: Viktor Hovland (35-1, BetOnline) — Viktor Hovland showed just enough life last week at the Phoenix Open for me to strongly consider him this week. Hovland has won a U.S. Amateur title at Pebble Beach, and his short game continues to steadily improve.
Past results: We have our FIRST winner of 2026, with Stephen Hennessey correctly predicting Justin Rose’s victory at Torrey Pines at 60-1!
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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am picks 2026: Sleepers/Dark Horses Who Could Win
Mayo: Alex Noren (100-1, BetRivers) — MC-MC to start 2026, but he’s been much better than that over the last half year or so, hence the World No. 16 title. Two wins in the late summer on the DP World Tour, plus a solo second at the Hero and top 10s at the 3M Open and the Wyndham tell me he’s close.
Stewart: Pierceson Coody (66-1, BetRivers) — Pierceson Coody is the No. 1-ranked Poa annua putter in the field. In four starts this season, Coody has finished T-13, T-18, T-2 and T10. Pierceson’s runner-up finish took place at Torrey Pines. He’s taking that exemplary ball-striking back to a Pacific Poa course! Forget the desert, he cannot wait to get back on these greens. It will take a special effort to beat Scheffler, but the way Pierceson is playing, anything can happen.
Noonan: Jason Day (46-1, DraftKings) — Jason Day‘s T-24 at Pebble Beach back in 2022 is by far his worst showing at this venue over the past decade. Day has gained two-plus strokes (SG/total) in 59.3 percent of his measured rounds at this event over the past eight years, the highest rate in the field (minimum of eight rounds played).
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Hennessey, Golf Digest: Shane Lowry (64-1, DraftKings) — Lowry’s irons have been scorching hot. In two starts in Dubai to start 2026, Lowry has gained nearly 18 strokes on approach alone, basically 2 and ¼ strokes per round on his competition. He returns to Pebble Beach where he finished runner-up to Rory McIlroy last year. He gained over a stroke per round with the putter—if we get something similar to that positive of a putting week, I’d expect Lowry to play a big factor this weekend.
Powers, Golf Digest: Akshay Bhatia (66-1, BetRivers) — This feels pretty disrespectful for a guy coming off a T-3 with two PGA Tour victories to his name already. Give me the Cali native at an event where southpaws like Phil Mickelson and Ted Potter, Jr., have thrived.
Lack: Daniel Berger (70-1, BetOnline) — Not only is Daniel Berger a former winner at this event, he is also coming off a top-20 finish in Phoenix where he lead the field in approach play. Short to middle iron play remains the number one safest way to succeed at Pebble Beach, and Berger is one of the best in the field at this skill.
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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am picks 2026: Players We’re Fading
Mayo: Maverick McNealy (35-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Obviously has the history here and has been really strong over the last year plus, but this just feels too easy.
Stewart: Xander Schauffele (22-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — In two starts this season, Xander Schauffele has missed a cut and finished T-41. The two-time major champion has two starts in the AT&T Pro-Am and has not finished inside the top 54. Schauffele missed this start one year ago with a rib injury, and he does not seem to have fully regained his confidence. Until Xander gets back all facets of his game, especially around the green, he will remain in the fade category.
Noonan: Ludvig Aberg (33-1, BetRivers) — Yes, Ludvig Aberg finished second to Wyndham Clark here in the 2024 weather-shortened event, but he entered that start in much better form than he’s in right now. Also, this mostly less-than-driver wedge fest is not a place that highlights Aberg’s top-tier skills. Yes, Rory played this venue differently in 2025 than most have previously, but that’s a big ask for Aberg right now.
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Hennessey, Golf Digest: Ludvig Aberg (33-1, BetRivers) — Ludvig hasn’t been himself to start 2026—missing the cut at Torrey Pines and withdrawing from the Amex. It’d be quite the leap to expect Aberg to pull a 180 and beat the best field of the year given the performance we saw at Torrey, even if he was still nursing an illness.
Powers, Golf Digest: Justin Rose (22-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — Rose loves Pebble and couldn’t be hotter right now, but I can’t stomach him at 22-1 knowing he was 60-1 at Torrey and 100-1 or higher prior to Torrey at all the majors. Too much of an overcorrection here.
Lack: Rory McIlroy (12-1, Caesars Sportsbook) — While Rory McIlroy is the defending champion of this event, I’m not sure his success at Pebble Beach is entirely sustainable. Pebble Beach is still a golf course that requires extremely precise wedge play and accurate driving over a decades long sample size. I expect a middle of the road finish from McIlroy this week in his first U.S. start of the season.
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am picks 2026: Matchups
Mayo: Sepp Straka (+112) over Keegan Bradley (Coolbet) — Straka very quietly tied for 18th at WMPO, a nice confidence booster coming into this week. Bradley went MC at AMEX and then tied for a distant 43rd at Torrey. Tough to trust his putter on the tricky poa greens, too.
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Stewart: Jason Day (+100) over Harris English (FanDuel) — Harris English is on cruise control in 2026. Three starts and three finishes between 22 and 28 on the leader board. Now, Harris heads to a venue where he has very un-English-like results. In four Pebble Beach starts, English has one missed cut, and his best finish is T-40. Jason Day loves this venue. We’re getting positive odds on a player who is riding a hot iron game and has nine top 10s in 15 starts at the AT&T.
Noonan: Daniel Berger (-111) over Shane Lowry (BetMGM) — I’m not interested in backing him to win against a field like this, but if you look at who has performed best at Pebble Beach and its corollary courses over the past eight seasons, only Scottie Scheffler and Patrick Cantlay have gained strokes tee-to-green at a higher clip than Daniel Berger. He caught my attention with a strong showing at TPC Scottsdale, lapping the field with 5.4 strokes gained via ball-striking on his way to a 6-under 65 on Sunday.
Hennessey, Golf Digest: Pierceson Coody (-120) over Akshay Bhatia (Bet365) — Akshay played great at TPC Scottsdale, but that’s a venue where he can lean on his creativity with the driver. Pebble Beach takes driver out of his hand—and his propensity to make a big number—being nearly bottom of the field in bogey avoidance—will rear its head. Coody has been one of the most consistent golfers in the world in 2026, so I’ll glad take his side in this matchup.
Powers, Golf Digest: Tommy Fleetwood (-120) over Justin Rose (Bet365) — I know how silly it seems to fade Justin Rose right now, but there’s a reason he’s the underdog in this matchup. Fleetwood has finished seventh or better in 10 of his last 19 events worldwide. Prettayyy, prettayyy good.
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Lack: Patrick Cantlay (-105) over Cameron Young (Southpoint) — I’m simply rolling with the course history advantage here, as Patrick Cantlay has been phenomenal at this event while Cameron Young has failed to record a top-70 finish in three appearances. Young also lost significantly on approach last week.
Matchup Results from the WMPO: Lack: 1 for 1 (English (-140) over Conners); Powers: 1 for 1 (Pi. Coody (-120) over Hall); Hennessey: 1 for 1 (Knapp (+100) over English); Stewart: VOID (J.J. Spaun pre-tournament WD); Mayo: 0 for 1; Noonan: 0 for 1
Matchup Results from the 2026 season (Wins-Losses-Pushes): Lack: 4-0-0 (up 3.31 units); Stewart: 3-0-0 (up 2.65 units); Powers: 3-1-0 (up 1.78 units); Mayo: 2-2-0 (up 0.14 units); Hennessey: 2-2-0 (down 0.17 units); Noonan: 1-3-0 (down 2.05 units)
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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am picks 2026: Top 10s
Mayo: Sepp Straka (+500, BetRivers) — I like him already in a matchup, but I think he can conted this week, too.
Stewart: Maverick McNealy (+290, FanDuel) — In seven career starts at the AT&T, Maverick McNealy has a runner-up and a top-five finish. In three starts this season, McNealy is playing positively in every major strokes-gained category. Maverick’s SG/total average over those three 2026 events is +6.8! Now he returns to a PGA Tour venue where he can claim home course advantage? Give me the 10 places and a near 3-1 payout on this top gun.
Noonan: Russell Henley (+320, FanDuel) — Since the start of the 2025 season, Henley has made nine starts on courses we classify as “very short” or “short” in length at Betsperts Golf. He’s finished T-19 or better in eight of the nine starts, six of which were T-10 or better. Henley finished T-5 at this event last season, ranking seventh in SG/approach and leading the field in SG/putting. He’s my favorite non-Scheffler bet of the week.
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Hennessey, Golf Digest: Jason Day (+305, including ties, DraftKings) — Day gains nearly two strokes per round on the field at Pebble Beach—even throughout a stretch of his career when he was struggling. His game’s in a good place, so I’ll happily take this number. Powers, Golf Digest: Daniel Berger (+450, BetRivers) — This being the site of his last win can only help the vibes, but his recent form should help as well. A Sunday 64 at Sony for T-6 and a Sunday 65 last week at WMPO for a T-16 makes me feel real good about the backdoor potential, too. Lack: Russell Henley (+320, FanDuel) — Russell Henley is a perfect fit for Pebble Beach, as evidenced by his top-five finish last year. Henley is one of the most accurate drivers of the ball in the field, as well as one of the best wedge players, and he is coming off an excellent approach week at the American Express. Top-10 results from the WMPO: Mayo: 1 for 1 (Pierceson Coody +550); Noonan: 1 for 1 (Pierceson Coody +550); Stewart: 1 for 1 (S.W. Kim +255); Everybody else: 0 for 1
Top-10 results from the 2026 season: Noonan: 2 for 4 (up 7.1 units); Mayo: 2 for 4 (up 6.7 units); Stewart: 2 for 4 (up 4.65 units); Lack: 1 for 4 (up 3 units); Powers: 1 for 4 (up 1.1 units); Hennessey: 0 for 4 (down 4 units)
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About our experts
Pat Mayo is an award-winning video host and producer of long and short-form content, and the host of The Pat Mayo Experience daily talk show. Mayo helped create the golf stats and research website Fantasy National along with the Race for the Mayo Cup One and Done contest. Mayo won the 2022 Fantasy Sports Writing Association Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year and is a finalist for three FSWA Awards in 2023 (Best Podcast, Daily Fantasy Writer of the Year, Golf Writer of the Year). His 27 FSWA nominations lead all writers this decade and are second-most all-time. Follow him on Twitter: @ThePME.
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Keith Stewart is a five-time award-winning PGA professional, a betting contributor for Golf Digest and founder of Read The Line, the premier on-site live golf betting insights service covering the LPGA and PGA TOUR. Subscribe to Read The Line’s weekly newsletter here and raise your golf betting acumen. Keith’s winning content can also be found on Sports Grid, Bleacher Report and The Sporting News. Follow him on Twitter @readtheline_.
Ryan Noonan is the Betting Content Manager for 4for4 and Betsperts Golf, writing articles and hosting multiple shows under the Betsperts Group umbrella, including Move The Line and our Betsperts Golf Betting Show. Find him on Twitter: @RyNoonan.
Andy Lack is a PGA Tour writer and podcaster from New York City who now resides in Los Angeles. Andy is the founder and CEO of Inside Sports Network, a website devoted to the predictive quality of advanced analytics and golf course architecture. He came to Golf Digest’s betting panel after previously writing for Run Pure Sports, RickRunGood.com, the Score and GolfWRX. In his free time, Andy can likely be found on a golf course. Follow him on Twitter: @adplacksports.
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