To get a handle on how well-positioned the Mets are to be aggressive this offseason, you can do two things.
The first thing is to take a look at the massive amount of money they have coming off the books ahead of the 2025 season.
The second thing is to recall what president of baseball operations David Stearns said at his end-of-season news conference.
“We’ve got financial flexibility,” Stearns explained. “It means that pretty much the entirety of the player universe is potentially accessible to us. That’s an enormous opportunity. I envision us taking advantage of that opportunity, and being aggressive in certain spaces.
“We also have to recognize that we want to set up our organizational pattern so that we can invest in free agency, invest where we think we need to to complement the club on an annual basis. So, you’re right. We have a lot of money coming off the books.
“I would expect us to spend some of that — a good portion of that — to complement our team, to improve our team heading into next year. We’re also not gonna do anything that hamstrings us in future years and prevents us from continually adding, supplementing to our core group.”
To put things in simple terms: Combine the Mets’ terrific payroll situation, their emergence in 2024 as a legitimate World Series contender with a strong core of winning players, the willingness of owner Steve Cohen to outbid any team, and Stearns’ measured aggression and savvy, and you get what should be an incredibly intriguing offseason.
And the offseason will almost certainly include a strong pursuit of 26-year-old megastar Juan Soto, whose deal should eclipse $500 million and could end up beyond $600 million.
Oct 18, 2024; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; New York Yankees outfielder Juan Soto (22) celebrates after hitting a two run home run against the Cleveland Guardians in the first inning during game four of the ALCS for the 2024 MLB playoffs at Progressive Field. / David Dermer – Imagn Images
But while the Mets go after Soto, they will be working a whole bunch of other avenues — possibly including a big trade or two.
As the Mets look to add the players they hope will help them to go from an NLCS trip in 2024 to a World Series trip (and victory) in 2025, here’s how their payroll looks for next season and beyond…
The Mets — whose 2024 payroll was pockmarked by money owed to players who were no longer playing for them — will enter the offseason with around only $150 million committed for 2025, which is a figure that includes the roughly $18 million earmarked for player benefits.
The above figure will go up with arbitration raises owed to a handful of players, but the Mets will have an incredible amount of flexibility regardless.
For reference, the Mets ended the 2024 season with a payroll of $356.2 million, which included the luxury tax penalties that were owed.
Now gone are the contracts of Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, James McCann, and Omar Narvaez.
Meanwhile, the Mets have a number of big free agents, including Pete Alonso and three members of their starting rotation.
If Alonso is re-signed, it will add a large chunk to their payroll for 2025 and the next several years. But they are in such good shape going forward that there’s no reason to believe they can’t bring back Alonso, sign Soto, and do a whole lot more.
The Mets have eight arbitration-eligible players (not counting Brooks Raley, who will almost certainly be non-tendered after undergoing Tommy John surgery), but none of them are expected to command a salary beyond $4.4 million, per projections via MLB Trade Rumors.
Oct 9, 2024; New York, New York, USA; New York Mets pitcher David Peterson (23) throws in the sixth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies in game four of the NLDS for the 2024 MLB Playoffs at Citi Field. / Brad Penner – Imagn Images
Those players are:
Paul Blackburn: $4.4 million Tylor Megill: $2.1 million David Peterson: $4.4 million Tyrone Taylor: $2.9 million DJ Stewart: $1.7 million Alex Young: $1.4 million Luis Torrens: $1.1 million Sean Reid-Foley: $900,000
Blackburn, Megill, Peterson, and Taylor feel like slam dunks to be offered arbitration. So for the sake of this exercise, let’s add roughly $13.8 million to the payroll to account for them.
Stewart, Young, and Reid-Foley feel like players who won’t be offered arbitration. Perhaps Torrens is offered arbitration. Let’s add his projected $1.1 million salary, which would take the Mets’ total money owed to players for 2025 to around $165 million.
There are also the 0-to-3 players who are earning near the MLB minimum and aren’t yet eligible for arbitration.
Those players include Francisco Alvarez, Mark Vientos, Dedniel Núñez, and Jose Butto. But even after taking those four guys and the rest of the players the Mets will tender contracts to into account, the total New York will be on the hook for before making external additions won’t amount to much more than $170 million.
A lot.
The Mets, even after arbitration raises and money owed to their zero-to-three players, should be about $70 million under the first luxury tax threshold of $241 million.
And Stearns seemed somewhat bemused last week when he was asked whether the Mets would try to get under that number this offseason in order to reset their penalty level.
David Stearns / USA TODAY Sports/SNY Treated Image
Translation: It will be shocking if the Mets don’t exceed the luxury tax again in 2025, and it should not come as a surprise if they are again $40 million or more above it (which would mean a payroll of $281 million or more).
People often understandably wonder why an owner like Cohen would care about exceeding the tax and paying the associated penalties.
The answer is that, despite Cohen’s ability to easily pay the penalties, going over the luxury tax — especially when doing so multiple years in a row and being $40 million or more over — leads to draft pick penalties, including a team’s top selection moving back 10 spots.
However, that’s something the Mets are likely going to live with for now as they attempt to get closer to achieving their goal of sustainable success — the kind of success that would include the constant churning out of starting-level players from the minors, mixed with smart, aggressive moves in free agency and via trade.
Of all the Mets’ younger players, the two it could make the most sense to discuss long-term deals with are Vientos and Alvarez.
The point for the Mets would be to lock in potential cornerstone players at below-market deals before they reach arbitration and free agency.
The reason Vientos and/or Alvarez might be open to it is because they would get a massive payday years before they would otherwise get it.
Vientos isn’t arbitration-eligible for the first time until 2027.
Alvarez will be arbitration-eligible in 2026.
Oct 17, 2024; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets third base Mark Vientos (27) reacts after hitting a home run against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the first inning during game four of the NLCS for the 2024 MLB playoffs at Citi Field. / Brad Penner – Imagn Images
In a world where the Mets extend one or both of them this offseason, it will obviously add another chunk of money to their payroll obligations. But the minor impediment of increasing their yearly money owed over the next several seasons would be offset in a big way by having one or both players locked in on a team-friendly deal.
Here are the Mets’ projected 40-man roster salary obligations from 2026 to 2029, via Cot’s Baseball Contracts:
2026: $119.8 million 2027: $107.8 million 2028: $74.7 million 2029: $75.2 million
When looking at the above, after analyzing what the Mets could be looking at payroll-wise in 2025, it’s even easier to see why they’re in such a great spot this offseason.
Now is the time for the Mets to be as aggressive as they’ve ever been when it comes to going after a franchise-altering player — whether it’s Soto, a yet-to-be-determined trade target, or both.
The Mets are also obviously positioned very well to keep scouring the market for less expensive (in terms of both years and dollars) players they think are flying under the radar — kind of how they pounced on Sean Manaea and Luis Severino last offseason.
There is also the Mets’ booming minor league system to take into account.
Because of injuries, the Mets didn’t get any contributions from Drew Gilbert or Jett Williams in 2024. That should change in 2025 — a year that could also see the debut of hard-throwing right-hander Brandon Sproat, and include the debuts of fellow right-handers Nolan McLean and Blade Tidwell.
When you consider the Mets’ existing strong core, their tremendous payroll situation, and the expected emergence of more young impact players in 2025, you can see their plan for sustainable winning coming together. They took a huge step in 2024, but an even bigger one could be coming this offseason.
