Ilia Topuria vs Max Holloway: My main event breakdown picked Holloway to win straight up, so the bet for this seems logical. I also thought about taking the over, but with a quarter unit on Max to win in rounds four and five it is not worth it. This fight is so excellent that betting on it almost takes away from the enjoyment for me.
Holloway ML @ +195, Max in r4 @ +1600 (.25u), r5 @ +1600 (.25u)
Robert Whittaker vs Khamzat Chimaev: Whittaker has the same price as ‘Blessed’ in the main event and just like Max, I am picking Rob to win straight up. Chimaev’s gas tank issues are much more well-documented than Topuria’s, and a five round fight gives me all the confidence in ‘The Reaper.’ Hedging by betting Khamzat to win in the first round is not a terrible idea. (full preview here)
Whittaker ML @ +195, Rob in r3 @ +1200 (.25u), r4 @ +1400 (.25u), r5 @ +1800 (.25u)
Magomed Ankalaev vs Aleksandar Rakic: I don’t have to keep repeating myself, I am picking the underdog to win in what is essentially a 50/50 fight in my mind. Both have output issues at times despite their striking abilities/athleticism and if Ankalaev racks up control time with little damage, as has been the case before, then a split decision becomes more and more likely. (full preview here)
Rakic ML @ +305, Fight ends in Split Decision @ +400
Ankalaev under 59.5 sig strikes @ -140
Dan Ige vs Lerone Murphy: Murphy will probably win this one but the value on Ige is too good to pass up against a fighter who still has so much unproven about him. I thought Lerone began to put it all together in his last two fights, yet I still doubt his takedown defense (full preview here)
His multi-takedown performance against Josh Culibao does not seem repeatably in the top-15 unless he fights Giga Chikadze. Ige is a far more experienced grappler and betting on him by submission or to land more takedowns may also be a good shout if the odds are right.
Ige ML @ +210, Fight ends in Split Decision @ +300
Murphy under 2 takedowns @ -135
Shara ‘Bullet’ Magomedov vs Armen Petrosyan: Unlike for Lerone Murphy, landing a takedown like he did on Christian Leroy Duncan does seem repeatable for Armen Petrosyan here. Both are novice grapplers, but Shara being taken down by Bruno Silva in his last fight does not bode well. Petrosyan is already a talented clinch fighter, so wrestling may come more naturally to him as he looked decent when doing so vs CLD.
The striking should be almost even in this one, so that wrestling may give Armen the advantage he needs to snatch a split decision victory. (full preview here)
Petrosyan by Dec @ +220, over .5 takedowns @ -140
Fight ends in Split Decision @ +275
Petrosyan by Dec @ +220, over .5 takedowns @ -140
Fight ends in Split Decision @ +275
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