In October of 2023, Rinat Fakhretdinov had not gone into a mixed martial arts cage and come out without a victory. That all changed the next month when he ran into Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, though he still did not lose; the result was a 28-28 draw.
Although he can still claim to be undefeated in the UFC, and in his last nineteen fights overall, the luster has somewhat worn off due to his last two outings.
After the draw against Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, the Russian ran into Denmark’s Nicolas Dalby. The Dane did get taken down five times, but he got back up each time, landed more total strikes in the fight, and more significant strikes in the second and third rounds. Many — maybe even most — fans believe he did enough to deserve a win. The website MMA Decisions reveals that 72.4% of their voters scored it for the Dane.
Additionally, out of thirteen media members, seven (including myself) scored it for Dalby.
Now, none of this means Fakhretdinov is not a highly talented martial artist. Just he is not the elite level of prospect that some once believed. Fighters outside of the welterweight rankings can get up from him, can avoid his takedowns, can out-strike him.
Rinat’s opponent on Saturday, PFL finalist and now UFC debutant Carlos Leal, is a fighter who will be hard to wrestle. He, himself, is best in the clinch, and with dirty boxing or clinch knees. Though his offensive wrestling is nowhere near the Russian’s, his striking can be compared favorably against Rinat’s, or someone like Dalby.
Although the Moscovian may take Leal down, when he tries to mount offense, the Brazilian will likely to be able to scramble up. Carlos will also make it difficult in static positions for Fakhretdinov, especially in the clinch where he is adept at digging underhooks. He can also do continuous dirty clinch striking, with occasional spurts of true inspiration, when he does gain the outside position. Though that part of his game usually does not deal devastating damage, it is still hard to deal with if you are not at peak shape, as Ray Cooper III found out.
What can be devastating is the power of each man. Rinat has proven to have a good jab, straight right, and 1-2, as many Russian wrestlers learn to. Leal is often more looping with his punches but has shown more consistent ability to hurt foes badly, with 50% of his career wins coming by knockout, including his last four.
Leal has not lost to anyone other than Sadibou Sy since 2014 and has shown the ability to deal with wrestlers. While Fakhretdinov is better than the wrestlers Leal has beaten previously but has also had more difficulty with Leal’s style than vice versa.
This fight screams split decision to me unless one of their chins fail — if one does, my guess would be Rinat, he was wobbled & sent to a knee by Dalby in his last fight. That is one factor which leads me to my official prediction. In what is, to me, a coinflip of a fight, I will have to go with the underdog and UFC debutant, Carlos Leal.
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