With six weeks down in the NFL season, we have a good enough sample size to start seriously looking at players who are underperforming and make some judgments about both why it’s happening and what might take place going forward.
Here, I averaged together the total air yards, targets and red-zone targets for all the top 80 wide receivers from fantasy draft season and compared that to their current positional ranking to find 10 of the most interesting underperforming players.
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A.J. Brown, Eagles
Average air yards, target and red-zone target rank: WR22
Fantasy ranking: WR40
One of the biggest talking points this season has been the up-and-down — mostly down — nature of the Eagles’ passing game. A.J. Brown has made his frustrations known publicly. The Eagles, despite their 4-0 start, have some of the worst vibes you could imagine from a team that won a Super Bowl less than 10 months ago.
There is a lot to unpack with Brown’s lack of production. Brown is one of six wide receivers who average more than two uncatchable targets per game (2.3), per Fantasy Points Data’s charting. There’s no question that Jalen Hurts bears some responsibility, as he hasn’t ripped throws when they’re there over the middle and he’s struggled with extra bodies in the pocket. However, those have always been true for the Eagles’ quarterback. The offense doesn’t feel as buttoned-up or dynamic under the watch of Kevin Pattulo this season as it did in previous iterations, like Kellen Moore’s design in 2024. Yet, the dynamic that must be acknowledged, and one I’ve been talking about for weeks at Reception Perception and on the Yahoo Fantasy Forecast, is that Brown himself doesn’t look great in isolation.
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He’s been an elite man-beater over the course of his career, but this season and even last year, he’s not trending anywhere close to those results. He just isn’t getting open at the same rate as we’re used to. I’m not sure what the cause of that is, whether it’s a buildup effect of tons of lower-body injuries or he’s just not all that engaged with the offense this year, but it’s a big part of the story.
Unless something significant changes, like an in-season trade or Brown just starts dominating again in isolation, he’s going to be at the mercy of this somewhat broken situation.
Chris Olave, Saints
Average air yards, target and red-zone target rank: WR6
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Fantasy ranking: WR26
Chris Olave is getting the type of intentional usage I’ve long wanted to see out of the Saints receiver. He’s been moved around the formation with heavy slot work, weaponized with motion at the snap and received more layup targets than ever. He is being treated like a real-deal WR1 in Kellen Moore’s offense, which is quite well-designed.
However, he’s producing like a WR2, at best.
Obviously, this is an offense that’s going to bump up volume stats because it’s the fastest-paced unit in the NFL and runs no-huddle at the second-highest rate. So, without elite quarterback play, you’re going to get this gap between scoring and usage. That being said, Spencer Rattler (12th in success rate overall) has played perfectly solid, if not clearly above-average football this season, especially when working outside the numbers. Rattler hasn’t been as great working over the intermediate middle of the field, as he’s 29th in success rate on throws of 10-plus air yards between the numbers. That critical area of the field is part of what’s missing in this attack.
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Olave himself also has to wear some share of the blame. While he averages two uncatchable targets per game, he has come up short on a number of contested catch situations this season. Those are plays you want and need your No. 1 wide receiver to win. That said, I think Olave is good enough to hit on those over the course of the season and some of the misses between he and Rattle have been quite close.
I like the chemistry and connection between these two players and generally want to bet on their upward trajectory together.
Tetairoa McMillan, Panthers
Average air yards, target and red-zone target rank: WR10
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Fantasy ranking: WR21
The Panthers’ rookie receiver finally found the end zone for the first … and second time in his NFL career on Sunday. It was only a matter of time. Even still, McMillan finished the game with fewer than 30 receiving yards, his lowest output of the season. Bryce Young hasn’t been perfect so far this season and McMillan averages 1.8 uncatchable targets per game, but if we’re calling balls and strikes here, McMillan has put some bad drops and miscues at the catch point on film, too, such as his drop-turned-interception showed on Sunday.
However, I’m perfectly fine betting on both of these young players improving and getting better throughout the season. McMillan ranks 12th in total air yards and 11th in targets. Better days are no doubt coming, especially as he gets more comfortable winning at the catch point in the NFL. The only thing that causes me to think McMillan might stick as more of a strong WR2 than launch up close to the top 10 mark that his volume indicates is how good the Panthers’ run game is right now. Carolina ranks third on the season in rushing success rate on their running back runs. With the emergence of Rico Dowdle and the upcoming return of Chuba Hubbard, this team has every reason to try and be one of the most run-heavy outfits in the NFL. That could bring down the overall pass volume of this offense.
Jerry Jeudy, Browns
Average air yards, target and red-zone target rank: WR11
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Fantasy ranking: WR57
Jerry Jeudy was already a regression candidate after posting some fake-news stats while being the funnel target in 2024, thanks to injuries during the Jameis-Winston-production-scam era for the Browns. Jeudy wasn’t being drafted inside the top 30 wide receivers this season for a reason. However, it’s gone even worse than imaginable for him to start this year, as he’s the biggest underperformer among the top 80 receivers in fantasy football. He falls 46 spots below his usage rank, while no one else maintains a gap higher than 32 spots.
Despite leading all wide receivers in routes run this year with 247 while ranking fourth in air yards and 12th in targets, he has yet to score double-digit fantasy points in half PPR scoring. His high mark was 9.1 in Week 1. Yikes.
Of course, the Browns’ quarterback play is a big part of the issue but Jeudy has also made more than his fair share of mistakes. He leads all wide receivers with seven drops on the season, good for a 15.6% drop rate. Jeudy is a mistake-prone player who has often been overrated (thanks to his splash plays and prospect reputation as a route runner) and suits up for a Browns offense that ranks 32nd in success rate. He likely closes that 46-spot gap over the course of the season but not much about his outlook will change.
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Davante Adams, Rams
Average air yards, target and red-zone target rank: WR3
Fantasy rankings: WR13
Davante Adams is actually exceeding his consensus ADP scoring as the WR13 and yet he’s still underperforming his usage. The Rams receiver is second in the NFL in air yards (668), first in red-zone targets (12) and sixth in overall targets (55). However, he has a commanding lead on every other wide receiver in uncatchable targets with 21. The next highest is Drake London at 15.
Adams is the vertical X-receiver in this offense, which lends itself to low-percentage targets compared to some of the fun, move-around layup work Puka Nacua receives in the offense. It’s also worth noting that Matthew Stafford’s back injury in training camp cost these two some valuable time to build chemistry, and you can feel that in the games.
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Overall, I’m not too concerned about Adams and think this connection could get better in time.
Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars
Average air yards, target and red-zone target rank: WR17
Fantasy rankings: WR25
Brian Thomas Jr. has been one of the biggest non-injury disappointments over the first six weeks of the NFL season. It’s been a subject I’ve discussed ad nauseam but while there have been obvious issues with Trevor Lawrence and some of the operations of the offense, Thomas’ biggest problem has been working against zone coverage over the middle of the field. He’s particularly struggled with catches in tight windows and drops over the middle.
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The good news is that the Jaguars have adjusted his role to try and take some of those looks off his plate.
While Thomas still had a couple of poor over-the-middle reps in Week 6, he’s shining in the ways that made him special as a prospect and a rookie receiver. His work against man coverage down the field is excellent.
Thomas is probably still a buy-low and can tighten the gap between his usage and scoring. However, he won’t reach “fringe first round pick” value in fantasy football, as we all hoped, if he continues to struggle over the middle. That’s where all the best WR1s are dominating right now.
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Jakobi Meyers, Raiders
Average air yards, target and red-zone target rank: WR23
Fantasy rankings: WR39
Jakobi Meyers was essentially being ranked and drafted around the WR39 mark, so it’s not like this season has been brutal for those who selected the Raiders wideout. However, you would have imagined that Meyers would be soaring with Brock Bowers stuck an injury-ruined first half of 2025. That has not been the case, as Geno Smith has struggled mightily at all three levels of the field. He’s been particularly poor working the intermediate middle where Meyers runs most of his routes. Smith has thrown six interceptions between the numbers this season, the second-most in the NFL.
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Until something changes with the quarterback play, the ceiling case is just gone for Meyers even if he maintains some weekly usability in fantasy.
Tee Higgins, Bengals
Average air yards, target and red-zone target rank: WR25
Fantasy rankings: WR45
No one is shocked by this one and even with Joe Flacco in town now, my guess is Tee Higgins remains on this underperformers list the rest of the way. The problem for Higgins is his role as the X-receiver. He’s taken just 16% of his snaps from the slot, the lowest rate on the team. The team moves Ja’Marr Chase around to get the elite player into favorable matchups. That leaves Higgins on the boundary, getting low percentage looks.
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That’s fine when Joe Burrow is the quarterback but it becomes much less enticing when it’s the backup brigade. Higgins has been targeted on just 16.7% of his routes this season as both Jake Browning and Flacco have preferred to pepper Chase with layup targets. It’s hard to argue against that.
Troy Franklin, Broncos
Average air yards, target and red-zone target rank: WR28
Fantasy rankings: WR42
I’ve been intrigued by Troy Franklin’s emergence as the clear No. 2 receiver in Denver alongside Courtland Sutton. He’s run a route on 78% of the dropbacks, which no Broncos pass-catcher came close to approaching besides Sutton last year. However, Franklin needs to start converting on more of his chances. He’s had some drops and mistakes at the catch point, which were issues present in his prospect profile. The Broncos have a Day 2 rookie in Pat Bryant, who brings more size and reliability to the slot position if Franklin falls out of favor. Bryant’s route participation has crept up the last three games, pushing north of 50% in Weeks 5 and 6.
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Keon Coleman, Bills
Average air yards, target and red-zone target rank: WR30
Fantasy rankings: WR41
Keon Coleman had a really promising Week 1 showing in the fourth quarter comeback win against Baltimore but, outside of that moment — which included a deflected touchdown reception — he has mostly been invisible. It’s actually quite a stark contrast in production between that single quarter and the rest of his season.
My thoughts on Coleman as a prospect were that he needed to be a big slot convert because he simply never showed the ability to separate on the perimeter you require from a starting outside wide receiver. That proved true in his rookie season and it hasn’t improved in Year 2. I’m still waiting on any consistent evidence to change my stance on this but none has been provided by the player or team, who suspended Coleman in the first quarter last week for disciplinary reasons.
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As long as he remains an outside receiver, the results will be what they have been.
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