Success in fantasy football takes more than instincts — it takes insight. Just like SurveyMonkey AI helps you transform insights into action, these Booms & Busts give you fantasy intel and help you adjust your lineup and strategy to take control of your season.
We make the point pretty much all NFL season. It’s a snow globe league. Variance is a cruel mistress.
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If you need a reminder, let’s present to you the 2025 Atlanta Falcons.
The Falcons have yet to pick a lane in the fresh season. They were okay in the opening two weeks, a loss to Tampa Bay and a win at Minnesota. Then came a shocking shutout loss in Week 3, at Carolina of all places. The Panthers remain one of the weakest teams in the NFL.
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So it was encouraging to see Atlanta get it going Sunday, delivering a 34-27 win over Washington. The Falcons went turbo on offense: 24 first downs, 435 total yards, 6.8 yards per play. There was just one sack, just one turnover. Football how it oughta be. And it came against a defense ranked 10th in DVOA entering the week.
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Michael Penix Jr. was making just his seventh NFL start, and it was definitely his best. He clicked on 20-of-26 passes for 313 yards, good for a 12.0 YPA. He threw for a couple of touchdowns, against one pick. It hashes out to a 126.0 rating, good enough to win most weeks.
The Falcons employed an especially narrow usage tree, which enabled all of their primary fantasy angles to come home. Drake London turned 10 targets into a lovely 8-110-1 afternoon. Kyle Pitts Sr. caught all of his targets, good for a 5-70-1 haul. Penix only targeted six players in all. Darnell Mooney (1-15-0) was the only name receiver not involved.
Bijan Robinson had a monster day, too — 181 total yards and a touchdown on 21 touches. And if you needed to make a desperation call to Tyler Allgeier, he was also involved: 16 carries, 51 rushing yards, one score. It wasn’t efficient, but the yards piled up.
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When a condensed offense moves the ball this well, the leaderboard lights up. When the early window closed Sunday, Penix was sitting as the QB6, Robinson stood at RB2, London was the WR3 and Pitts held the TE2 slot. Maybe this offense is finally finding its stride.
After a day like this, it’s frustrating to see Atlanta taking a Week 5 bye. Challenges come after that — Buffalo in Week 6, San Francisco in Week 7. But with Penix gaining more experience and the Atlanta offense centered around its primary playmakers, I’m prepared to rank these guys proactively for the second quarter of the season. They’re back in the Circle of Trust.
In Other Week 4 Booms …
— The Steelers are another team taking a Week 5 bye, after their Ireland win over Minnesota on Sunday morning. It will be interesting to see how Pittsburgh handles its backfield out of the rest. Jaylen Warren (knee) was a late scratch Sunday and Kenneth Gainwell took advantage, rushing for two touchdowns and collecting 134 total yards on 25 touches. When you mix six catches into the stew, you come out with the RB1 post after the first half of the Week 4 slate hit the books.
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Rookie Kaleb Johnson didn’t show much in his expanded opportunity — he had six rushes for 22 yards. He’ll go back to being the No. 3 option when Warren can play again. But it’s possible Gainwell has made a pitch for a more expanded role.
— Jaxson Dart definitely looked like a rookie against the Chargers. He took five sacks, he had one fumble. But he also ran proactively, sometimes by design and often by necessity. The 10-54-1 rushing line pushed him into the top 10 at the quarterback position. The road will be difficult moving forward with Malik Nabers feared lost for the year, but Dart’s athleticism and rushing chops might allow him to kick into fantasy relevance. Just remember that when Dart’s scrambling to save a play, he’s rarely looking for RB Cam Skattebo (just two targets, though he did have 90 total yards). We’d also like to see Dart and Wan’Dale Robinson (1-14-0, five targets) get some chemistry going.
Although the Chargers couldn’t throw the ball well against the Giants, rookie RB Omarion Hampton almost stole the win anyway. Hampton had a 54-yard touchdown rumble late in the game, the finishing touches on a 17-touch, 165-yard afternoon. With Najee Harris out for the year, Hampton has this backfield to himself — no other LAC back received a carry Sunday. Hampton’s next assignment is the Washington front seven that Atlanta succeeded against in Week 4.
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Considering Some Week 4 Busts
I don’t want to be too hard on Alvin Kamara — 15 carries for 70 yards isn’t a bad day. But this new coaching staff isn’t using him much as a receiver. He had four catches for two piddly yards at Buffalo, and he’s now at 13 catches, 49 yards, for the year. His days as a PPR god are perhaps over, at least in New Orleans.
An in-season trade is possible, of course. The Saints are 0-4 and it might make sense to move on from Kamara, who’s navigating his age-30 season. If and when that happens, understudy Kendre Miller could be a fantasy find. Miller had an 18-yard touchdown run against the Bills, part of his 11-65-1 afternoon. The previous coaching staff never seemed to trust Miller, but new coach Kellen Moore keeps calling his number.
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— It was mostly a happy day for the Patriots, rolling to a 42-13 laugher over the Panthers. But the New England backfield might be indecipherable for fantasy. Rhamondre Stevenson, TreVeyon Henderson and Antonio Gibson split 22 carries between them, with no one getting to 40 yards rushing. Henderson and Gibson at least bailed out with touchdowns, but no one is getting enough volume to make themselves fantasy-credible. Also consider that QB Drake Maye does some running every week, too. He’s up to 98 rushing yards for the year, and had his second scoring run Sunday.
— Bryce Young’s snappy finish to 2024, that feels like eons ago. He was benched in the loss at New England, posting just 150 passing yards and a mediocre 5.0 YPA. His first drive was a snappy seven-play, 76-yard touchdown march but almost nothing went right after that. The schedule has friendly opponents on the way — Miami and Dallas the next two weeks — but Young needs to step up his game. Even if we don’t want to dial up Young for fantasy, we’d like to consider Chuba Hubbard (13 touches, 69 total yards) and Tetairoa McMillan (4-62-0) as credible starters.
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— Don’t be fooled by the final score in Detroit — although the Lions picked up the 34-10 win over Cleveland, the Browns were nasty on defense all day. Detroit was limited to 16 first downs and 277 total yards, well under its averages. Jahmyr Gibbs (15-91-1) and Amon-Ra St. Brown hit their marks with efficiency and touchdown deodorant, but everyone else in this offense was a Week 4 letdown. The Vikings and Steelers will face the Cleveland challenge next.
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