Oregon vs. Penn State prediction, odds, spread, time: 2025 Week 5 college football picks by proven model

A Big Ten battle is set for Saturday as the No. 3 Penn State Nittany Lions host the No. 6 Oregon Ducks (4-0) in 2025 college football Week 5. This is the first meeting between these teams since the Big Ten title game last season, which the Ducks won 45-37. Oregon is already 1-0 in conference play in 2025 after defeating Northwestern in 34-14 in Week 2, and Penn State will be playing its first game against a Big Ten opponent following a Week 4 bye. 

Kickoff from Beaver Stadium is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. The Nittany Lions are 3.5-point favorites in the latest Oregon vs. Penn State odds, and the over/under for total points scored is 53.5. Penn State is a -170 money-line favorite (risk $170 to win $100) and Oregon is a +142 underdog (risk $100 to win $142). Before making any Penn State vs. Oregon picks, be sure to see what the SportsLine projection model has to say. 

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The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a betting profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college spread football picks, and is a profitable 35-22 combined on money-line and over/under college football picks since the beginning of 2024. Anybody following its college football betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.  

Now, the model has zeroed in on Penn State vs. Oregon. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Oregon vs. Penn State in Week 5:

Why Oregon can cover

The Ducks are 2-1-1 ATS to start the season, and Saturday’s game will be their shortest spread plus the first time they have been the underdog in 2025. They covered the spread the one time they were listed as the underdog last season, defeating Ohio State in a nail-biter 32-21.

Oregon’s offense has been impressive through four weeks, ranking seventh in the nation with 50.8 points per game and 12th over all with 523.8 yards per game. It will face its biggest test yet against a tough Penn State defense that is only allowing 224.0 total yards per game, but the Ducks visit Happy Valley with the weapons and momentum to cover as underdogs. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

Why Penn State can cover

It may not look great that the Nittany Lions are 0-3 ATS to start the season, but all of those spreads were more than 40 points. History says they should benefit from being well-rested since they went 3-1-0 ATS after their bye week last season, covering against conference rivals Wisconsin, Washington and Purdue during that stretch.

Penn State’s defense ranks ninth in the nation with just 123.3 average passing yards allowed and 100.7 rushing yards allowed. Heisman Trophy hopeful Drew Allar has thrown four touchdown passes in three games but will need more from his o-line to build a lead on the Ducks since he’s also been sacked three times this season. Running back Kaytron Allen is averaging 8.0 yards per carry for 273 yards and three touchdowns, and could play a big role against an Oregon defense that hasn’t faced a tough ground game this season. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

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How to make Oregon vs. Penn State picks

For Oregon vs. Penn State in Week 5, the model is leaning over the total, and also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. See what it is at SportsLine.

Who wins Penn State vs. Oregon, and which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Oregon vs. Penn State spread you need to jump, all from the model that is a combined 35-22 on top-rated picks since 2024, and find out.