If anyone outside the Yankees clubhouse last week genuinely envisioned the AL East race up for grabs entering the final weekend of the season, their hopes couldn't have been any higher. After all, the Blue Jays owned a commanding five-game lead for first place just 10 days ago.
But the window to a division title never closed for the Yankees. With four games left on the calendar, they've entered Thursday in a stunning deadlock with the Blue Jays atop the standings. While the head-to-head tiebreaker isn't in their favor, they've defied expectations amidst chaos.
The Yankees (90-68) must finish one game better than the Blue Jays in order to steal the crown and clinch a first-round bye. What once seemed like too tall of an order is now easily attainable, and the satisfaction of already securing a postseason spot isn't enough for Aaron Boone.
"I'll take the bye all day long. It's winning a series, essentially, without having to play one," the Yankees' manager said ahead of Thursday's series finale with the White Sox. "We've seen teams come out of the wild-card situation and run the table. We've seen it the other way. But if you're asking me if I get to choose, I'll take the bye."
It's no surprise Boone prefers a shorter journey to the World Series. His team took this route last season as AL East champions and the top-overall seed, bypassing the best-of-three Wild Card series and outlasting the Royals and Guardians before falling to the Dodgers in the Fall Classic.
The weekend pitching plan
The first-round bye offers clear advantages. Not only do teams receive nearly a week of vital rest from a grueling 162-game campaign, but they also get the luxury of a stress-free alignment of their starting rotation. So, the fewer taxing games, the better.
Yankees ace Max Fried pitched in Wednesday's win, and Carlos Rodón is lined up to start Thursday's contest. The pair of valuable left-handers can, in all likelihood, be ruled out for weekend appearances against the Orioles, and this reality shouldn't bother Boone.
But who's slated to take the mound in the coming days? Boone said the "probables" are Will Warren (Friday), Cam Schlittler (Saturday), and Luis Gil (Sunday). Based on this normal order, Schlitter would be available on regular rest for a potential do-or-die Game 3 of the Wild Card round.
Boone also mentioned there aren't any plans of asking Ryan Yarbrough or Paul Blackburn to spot-start or provide bulk relief work, but nothing is set in stone. The strategy is fluid while their fate is simultaneously decided by the Blue Jays, on the brink of a total September meltdown.
A familiar postseason strategy
Whether the Yankees host a best-of-three series of a best-of-five next week, their October success will be contingent upon familiar factors. They're trusting arms like Fried and Rodón to thrive under the brightest lights. They desperately need Aaron Judge to deliver at the plate.
Their recipe for wins requires home runs, and they'll once again have the opportunity to demonstrate this years-long philosophy from the franchise can actually yield results the fanbase has grown to doubt.
By design, the Yankees lead the majors in homers (266) and OPS (.786) this season. The threat of the long ball isn't disappearing, and Boone believes their power bats throughout the lineup provide an edge. But he also hopes to see more athleticism and timely hitting this time around.
"It's about getting on base as much as you can, and hopefully you put a few balls in the seats," Boone said. "But there's going to be those games you've got to win that are low-scoring, that you're going to be kept in the ballpark. I've seen athleticism return more and be a little more valued over the years. Some of that is rule-based.
"Defense, little things that happen over the course of the game become important in those one-off games. But at the end of the day, it's hard to just hit, hit, hit, double, hit, walk. You've got to usually take advantage of putting some mistakes in the seats. We've seen that play out a lot over the years of, teams that do that, usually continue to advance."
Since the league expanded its postseason field to 12 teams and introduced the new Wild Card round in 2022, only three teams with a first-round bye have reached the World Series. The rest doesn't guarantee a deeper playoff run, but the AL and NL pennant winners last season enjoyed the reward.
Read the full article here