I feel like I say this every year, but this year, more than any other, has been crazier than usual with the amount of early big-name injuries, underperforming superstars, and wacky scoring weeks. I mean, someone doing a Zero RB draft could easily have started the year with Joe Burrow at QB, CeeDee Lamb, Mike Evans, and Xavier Worthy at WR, George Kittle at TE with James Conner, Aaron Jones, Austin Ekeler, and Tyrone Tracy at RB.
You wanna talk wacky? Hell, just look at the 49ers. Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Jauan Jennings are all hurt. How is Christian McCaffrey like the only healthy guy on San Francisco?
Anyways, those of you working with 0-3 teams, I see you. Those of you sifting through waiver wires hoping for a miracle as you are trying to figure out what to do with the heavily-bandaged hospital ward you call a fake football team, I hear you. And everyone that needs a little help for Week 4… I am here for you.
As always, my thanks to my producer Damian Dabrowski for his help at various points in this column and all underlying stats, data, and utilization numbers are courtesy of FantasyLife.com’s Utilization Report, and of course, the incredible Dwain McFarland.
A reminder, the best deal on the internet is a subscription to RotoPass.com, which is my bundle site that combines a bunch of the best premium content and tools sites for one low price (it works out to like a quarter a day) that includes FantasyLife+, of course, and many others. Plus, you get a free 6 month premium subscription to Peacock, where, among other things, you can watch the daily Fantasy Football Happy Hour with yours truly and our Sunday morning show, Fantasy Football Pregame that airs from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. ET where we answer more questions than any other pregame show.
Let’s get to it.
Here are 10 Facts You Need to Know Before Week 4:
1. So far this season, the Las Vegas Raiders are top five in the NFL in terms of most receptions allowed on deep passes.
1A. So far this season, Bears QB Caleb Williams ranks top three in the NFL in deep ball rate (percentage of passes that go at least 15+ air yards).
1C. This week, the Bears play the Raiders.
2. More Bears-Raiders. So far this year, the Chicago Bears are bottom five in the NFL in touchdown rate.
2A. The Bears are also bottom five in yards per pass attempt allowed.
2B. So far this year, Raiders QB Geno Smith is top eight in the NFL in pass attempts per game.
2C. As of the time of this writing, Chicago at Las Vegas has an Over/Under of 47.5 on DraftKings, which is one of the highest on the Week 4 slate.
2D. Caleb vs Geno. That’s where we are as a nation in Week 4.
3. In every single game this year, the Denver Broncos have allowed at least 89 yards from scrimmage to an opposing running back.
3A. This week the Broncos face the Cincinnati Bengals
3B. So far this year, Chase Brown has seen 83% of the Bengals’ RB touches.
3C. Chase Brown also has a 12% target share on the year.
3D. The Broncos also allow the seventh-most receiving yards to opposing RBs.
4. More Denver. Last week, J.K. Dobbins had a season high in RB rush share (85%) and route participation (55%).
4A. The Bengals have allowed 125+ rush yards to opposing RBs in back-to-back games.
5. Last week, Omarion Hampton had a Utilization Score of 96(!), the third-highest of any RB in the NFL.
5A. The Utilization Score is a proprietary metric created by Dwain McFarland of Fantasy Life that, on a scale of 1-100 (100 being the best) rates a player’s role and performance relative to others at their position that incorporates all the most predictive data points associated with scoring future fantasy points since 2020.
5B. The Utilization Score has proven over multiple years to be a more stable and predictive stat than fantasy points per game, snaps, attempts, targets, air yards, etc.
5C. A RB with a utilization score of 90 or higher generally averages 20.4 FPPG or higher, which is top five RB territory.
5D. RIDE. OR. DIE.
6. In every single game this year, no matter who the QB is, Garrett Wilson has had at least a 37% target share.
6A. The Miami Dolphins have allowed a touchdown to a WR in every single game this season.
7 So far this year, no wide receiver in the NFL has more targets than… Chris Olave.
7A. He has a 32% target share.
7B. He has at least one end zone target in every single game this year.
7C. Only two teams in the NFL have more pass attempts this year than the Saints.
7D. New Orleans is a 15.5-point underdog this week against the Bills, according to DraftKings.
8. Last week, Matthew Golden had a 84% route participation and 77% of the Packers’ air yards.
8A. No team has allowed more yards or touchdowns on deep passes this year than the… Dallas Cowboys.
9. No team has allowed more yards to opposing tight ends this season than the… Carolina Panthers.
9A. This week, they play the New England Patriots.
9B. Hunter Henry is averaging over seven targets per game for the Patriots.
9C. And, when the Patriots get in close, Hunter Henry has 42% of New England’s red zone targets.
9D. That’s almost half. Dude.
10. With Carson Wentz under center last week, T.J. Hockenson saw a season high 25% target share.
10A. This week the Vikings play the Pittsburgh Steelers (in Dublin!)
10B. Last week, the Steelers gave up 90 yards and two touchdowns to Hunter Henry.
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