Week 5 picks college football picks: Former personnel director predicts biggest games, calls for two upsets

Early-season Saturdays reveal a lot in college football: which teams are built to last, which are still searching for rhythm, and which are already fading. By Week 5, the picture sharpens. Contenders get tested on the road, depth gets exposed, and conference play begins to separate perception from reality.

This weekend delivers all of it: Ohio State stepping into one of the sport’s loudest and most overlooked venues, LSU and Ole Miss colliding in a rivalry that rarely disappoints, Oregon crossing the country into a Penn State White Out, and Alabama–Georgia squaring off again with playoff implications in the balance.

These aren’t just games — they’re measuring sticks. They’ll show whether Washington can hang with the nation’s best, if LSU looks like a title threat, if Penn State can flip the script in big moments, and if Alabama’s early stumble was a blip or a warning.

Here’s what to watch in Week 5 and how I see things going down. 

No. 1 Ohio State at Washington: Can the Huskies shock the nation? 

My prediction: Ohio State 31, Washington 20

Seattle sets the stage for one of the weekend’s most intriguing matchups: sailgating on Lake Washington, a deafening Husky Stadium, and an unranked Washington team eager to shock the country (3:30 p.m. ET on CBS, Paramount+ Premium). Ohio State enters as the No. 1 team in America, carrying arguably the sport’s most talented roster. All eyes will be on the Buckeyes’ suffocating defense as it tries to corral Demond Williams, one of the nation’s most dynamic young quarterbacks.

OSU scouting report: Nation’s best defense leads the way

The Buckeyes bring the most complete defense in the country, with depth along the defensive line, versatility at linebacker, and Caleb Downs anchoring a physical secondary. Matt Patricia’s group plays fast, disciplined and rarely gives anything easy. Offensively, freshman quarterback Julian Sayin has been efficient, leaning on elite receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate while the run game continues to sort itself out. To slow the passing attack down, opponents must make Sayin’s life in the pocket uncomfortable — a task few defenses have managed.

UW scouting report: QB Demond Williams Jr. keeps them dangerous

Williams Jr. has given the Huskies a clear identity with his creativity, accuracy and ability to extend plays. On the perimeter, Denzel Boston is a future NFL player who provides a big-bodied target who can win matchups downfield, while Jonah Coleman adds toughness and burst to the run game. Defensively, Washington plays hard and fast but remains light up front and vulnerable in the secondary. The challenge will be finding enough balance to keep pace with Ohio State’s size, speed and depth for all four quarters.

Key factor: Early momentum swings

For Washington, the path is clear: protect Williams, generate turnovers and maximize explosive opportunities in the passing game. For Ohio State, leaning on the nation’s most talented defense while exploiting mismatches on the perimeter should swing the matchup. Ultimately, whichever team handles the early momentum swings will dictate how long this one stays competitive.

My call

Washington delivers some early blows behind its quarterback and a raucous home crowd, but Ohio State’s depth and balance prove too much as the game wears on.

No. 4 LSU at No. 13 Ole Miss: A prove-it game in Oxford

My prediction: LSU 27, Ole Miss 24

Oxford hosts one of the SEC’s most underrated rivalries, and the bad blood always delivers (a fun twist now has Lane Kiffin’s daughter dating star LSU linebacker Whit Weeks, news she “hard-launched” this week). Last year, LSU stole a late win in Baton Rouge. This time, the Tigers enter as slight road dogs against an Ole Miss team that believes it let one slip away. Expect tempo, physicality and plenty of fireworks.

LSU scouting report: Searching for consistency

The Tigers have the weapons but continue to search for consistency. Right tackle remains a concern, the left guard spot is unsettled, and the run game has stalled too often with penalties and miscues up front. Garrett Nussmeier finally looked healthy, pushing the ball downfield with more confidence against an FCS opponent. LSU’s receivers can stretch defenses, and tight end Trey’Dez Green is close to returning. The run game has been hit-and-miss, but Ju’Juan Johnson’s vision and shiftiness may give it a spark. Against a lighter Ole Miss front, LSU has to commit to running between the tackles and controlling time of possession against a quick-strike Lane Kiffin offense.

Ole Miss scouting report: New life with Chambliss

Ole Miss has found new life offensively behind transfer quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, whose dual-threat ability has given Lane Kiffin a new wrinkle. He’s dangerous on designed runs but has also shown poise as a passer, hitting downfield shots and extending plays with his arm. With a deep receiver group and Daquan Wright at tight end, the Rebels can stress defenses in multiple ways. Defensively, they play fast but are susceptible on the interior defensive line. Xzavian Harris is a massive presence in the middle, yet the rest of the front leans on speed off the edge and athletic linebackers in space. To beat LSU, Ole Miss must hold up between the tackles and force the Tigers into a one-dimensional passing attack — a game script that would swing in the Rebels’ favor.

Key factor: Which team dictates tempo?

LSU has to lean on its run game while maximizing possessions and shrinking the game for Lane Kiffin’s offense. For the Rebels, Chambliss’ dual-threat ability is the wild card, especially against an LSU defense that has struggled with running quarterbacks in the past. Whichever team dictates style — LSU with physicality, or Ole Miss with tempo and space — will likely walk away with the win.

My call

LSU steadies itself, commits to the run game, and finds enough balance to kill off a feisty Ole Miss team in Oxford.

No. 6 Oregon at No. 3 Penn State: White Out pressure-cooker

My prediction: Oregon 21, Penn State 20

Happy Valley under the lights is as good as it gets, and this top-10 showdown has the feel of a season-defining moment. Penn State has cruised through an easy nonconference slate, while Oregon enters with a roster loaded with speed and depth at nearly every position. The question is whether James Franklin’s program — so often coming up short in these 50-50 games — can finally break through against a heavyweight opponent.

PSU scouting report: Trenches must finally deliver

The Nittany Lions bring an experienced defense that’s been opportunistic early, but the front seven will be tested against Oregon’s physicality and a talented, if somewhat unproven, offensive line. Quarterback Drew Allar owns a 5-7 record against Top 25 opponents and has yet to consistently elevate his play on the biggest stage. He’s supported by a proven backfield in Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, though the run game has yet to show its full punch this season. The offensive line has the makeup to be a strength but must deliver more than it has in early tune-ups. If Penn State is going to flip the narrative under Franklin, it starts with this group playing up to its potential.

Oregon scouting report: Balance and Dante Moore’s poise

Quarterback Dante Moore has given Oregon a steady hand, operating efficiently in the short and intermediate game while still showing the touch to stretch defenses vertically when opportunities arise. The Ducks remain balanced with a deep backfield and a true difference-maker at tight end in Kenyon Sadiq. Up front, the offensive line has yet to face a Jim Knowles–coached defense, which frustrated Will Stein’s group in the Rose Bowl a year ago (when Knowles was at Ohio State). Defensively, Oregon is talented at every level, but the interior will be tested against Penn State’s physical run game.

Key factor: Does Franklin have the big-game mettle?

For Penn State, it’s about controlling the trenches and keeping Allar comfortable behind a steady run game. For Oregon, the key is keeping Moore on schedule and asserting themselves at the line of scrimmage with a talented but still untested offensive front. Ultimately, this game will test whether Penn State can finally deliver in a true championship-type matchup — the kind Franklin’s teams have too often let slip against top-10 opponents.

My call

Penn State pushes Oregon to the brink in front of a raucous home crowd, but the Ducks’ balance and firepower prove decisive in the second half.

No. 17 Alabama at No. 5 Georgia: A heavyweight SEC clash

My prediction: Georgia 35, Alabama 32

Few games in college football carry the weight of Alabama–Georgia, and Saturday night in Athens will be no exception. The Bulldogs enter as slight favorites, looking to reassert their identity after surviving a shootout in Knoxville, while the Crimson Tide arrive with renewed confidence after shaking off an early stumble. Last year’s meeting turned into a showcase for Ryan Williams’ breakout, and with both rosters loaded again, this matchup has the makings of another physical, high-stakes battle that could swing the SEC race.

UGA scouting report: Bulldogs need more balance, less reliance on heroics

The Bulldogs escaped Knoxville thanks to Gunnar Stockton’s heroics, but they can’t live week-to-week relying on their quarterback to bail them out. Georgia is at its best when the ground game sets the tone and the tight ends contribute in the passing game. The offensive line has the talent to dictate, with Micah Morris and Drew Bobo anchoring a unit that should set the tone. For Georgia, it’s about playing that old-school Georgia brand of complementary football — time of possession, physical defense and asking Stockton to manage the game and pick his spots rather than carry the full load.

UA scouting report: Tide clicking with Ty Simpson

The Crimson Tide offense is starting to click with Ty Simpson under Ryan Grubb, especially in the play-action game. Ryan Williams remains the headliner, a slippery and explosive target who can shift matchups from the slot. Alabama still needs more consistency on the ground after being bottled up against Wisconsin, or risk leaning too heavily on Simpson’s arm. Defensively, Kane Wommack’s unit has settled in since the Florida State loss, with corners Domani Jackson and Zabien Brown presenting a much tougher challenge for Georgia’s passing game than what Tennessee offered up. The formula is straightforward: stop the run, make Georgia one-dimensional and force Stockton into pressure situations.

Key factor: In the SEC, it’s almost always the trenches

Georgia wants to reestablish its identity by grinding the game down with its backs and tight ends, leaning on time of possession and physicality. Alabama’s path runs through sharper execution on the ground and explosive plays from Williams and Germie Bernard in the passing game. Both teams are loaded with athletes, but the battle in the trenches will ultimately decide how much each offense can lean into its strengths.

My call

Athens at night is always a tough task. Expect a motivated Georgia defense to be the difference in Simpson’s first SEC road start, with the Bulldogs leaning on their front seven to close it out late.

Petagna’s 3-team parlay

You’ll notice I’m picking two outright upsets in LSU and Oregon, but in a parlay, I’d rather the insurance. Alabama-Georgia gets sidelined here because my prediction falls within the spread.