LOUDON, N.H. — Hendrick Motorsports‘ history at New Hampshire Motor Speedway over the past decade-plus can be filtered down to a single word: flat.
Of course, that would make some sense at the stably banked, 1.058-mile New England facility, but the powerhouse team‘s act at the “Magic Mile” has been about as sensational and awe-inspiring as the fake-bearded wizard your neighbor hired for their six-year-old‘s birthday party last weekend.
The organization has spent the entire Next Gen era — and then some — grasping at straws at NHMS, and Sunday‘s Mobil 1 301 (2 p.m. ET, USA Network, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App) could dictate the remainder of its playoff trio’s championship fates as the postseason barrels down toward its conclusion. Will historical trends be bucked or will one — or some combination of — William Byron, Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson head to Kansas Speedway next weekend in a Round of 12 hole?
MORE: Full starting lineup for Loudon | New Hampshire race preview
Since the Next Gen car arrived in 2022, Toyota teams have swept every Cup race here, claimed all six stage wins and led 83 percent of the laps (754 of 907), while Hendrick‘s quartet (including the recently eliminated Alex Bowman) combined for zero wins and zero stage victories. Chevrolet — the manufacturer, not just Hendrick — has just 84 laps led in that span. Not quite the eye-poppers we’re used to seeing from NASCAR’s most winning team and its A-list of talent.
Larson arrives sporting a résumé with a bit of flat-oval prowess on it, but for whatever reason, at NHMS, he has underperformed in sum despite a handful of close-but-no-cigar runs and a respectable average finish (11.2). There may not be another track on the schedule that Larson has raced at more over the past decade (12 starts since 2014), at which he has led less, with just eight total laps led in that span. He’s capable, but the front of the field eludes him.
There were some encouraging signs in practice, however.
“I thought, you know, we were not bad,” Larson said after hopping out of the car Saturday. “We were pretty loose, I thought, on exit, so we pitted, and it was good to look at some data and go back out, and I felt like I was competitive when I went back out. Still, really loose. So, you know, need to work on that, as I was really loose in qualifying also, but … we’ll hopefully be all right.
“I think (this race is) crucial. For sure. It’s not been a historically great track for us, but I feel like we’ve made progress on the style of track anyways this year, so optimistic, but didn’t qualify good. So I don’t know.”
While Byron and Bowman each qualified well on Saturday — fifth and seventh, respectively — the struggles continued for Larson and Elliott, with No. 5 landing 16th on the board and No. 9 a puzzling 27th.
The post-qualifying dejection was apparent.
“We’ll see where everyone winds up tomorrow,” said a succinct Georgia native. “But it’ll be a new day, and hopefully we can move forward and put together a good race.”
RELATED: Gordon on Hendrick’s flat-track program: ‘I like the direction we‘re heading‘
Elliott‘s case is even more striking. The 2020 Cup champion has been able to lead laps here (including 41 laps from the pole last year), but top 10s in just 27.3% of his 11 starts here rank among his worst at any track. For context, he owns a 30% in the completely mercurial Daytona International Speedway.
Byron arrives as the 2025 Regular Season Champion, yet his NHMS numbers offer no comfort: zero top 10s in seven tries at the “Magic Mile” with a very un-Byron-like 17.0 average finish. Every track where he has a worse average finish is either a drafting-style one, a road course, or one not currently on the Cup schedule (plus Indianapolis, which is essentially in a class of its own).
After a P1 showing in practice and pole winner Joey Logano mentioning in his post-qualifying presser that the 12 (of teammate Ryan Blaney) and Byron’s 24 were “fast,” is not only a first top 10 — but a potential win in the cards?
“You gotta crawl before you can walk,” said Byron, shutting down that notion. “So, I mean, we’re just trying to improve what we had today. Yeah, obviously a win is way out there, right? Like, if you ask me if a win is kind of on my radar here, I would say no, but then getting in the race car today, I was like, OK, that’s one step forward, if we can just … qualifying was another step. So we’ve got a long 301 laps to kind of figure out where our balance goes and how competitive we are versus the field.”
As the Round of 12 opener, Sunday‘s race offers a lifeline to both end this glaring drought and force the conversation elsewhere, but let’s also not forget: a win guarantees advancement to the Round of 8, which all three of these drivers feel they should reach, and beyond.
Sunday’s race could be the most pivotal in this round for Hendrick; the fulcrum that takes the pressure off — or increases it considerably.
Read the full article here