We’re officially in Week 4 of the 2025 college football season, which means we’re getting into the swing of conference matchups. There are quite a few notable conference clashes on tap this Saturday, including a ranked SEC tilt between Auburn and Oklahoma and a battle in Los Angeles when USC welcomes Michigan State to town. SportsLine college football expert Bruce Marshall, the longtime executive editor of The Gold Sheet, has gathered information on Saturday’s top games and shares everything bettors need to know about Week 4 of the college football season. For those who are into college football betting, you need to see Marshall’s plays, as he’s 15-6 (+847) over his last 21 college football spread picks.
BYU at East Carolina
A remnant of BYU’s days as an independent, this matchup occurred a few times when scheduling was often a problem in Provo. Though these seem odd bedfellows, BYU was willing to play a couple in Greenville (2017 and this year) in exchange for the Pirates coming to Provo in 2015 and 2022; as the Cougs were scrambling for top-tier foes to fill out their schedules, they accommodated ECU’s request for a like number of games in Greenville. For what it’s worth, in the most-recent 2022 clash at LaVell Edwards Stadium, it was the Pirates (as a three-point dog) scoring a mild 27-24 upset, rallying from seven points down in the fourth quarter. We suspect that Kalani Sitake might have preferred to delay the rematch and long trip to Greenville beyond 2025, too, as this matchup looks very dangerous for his Cougs.
Though the early season couldn’t have gone much better, off to a 2-0 start (albeit versus limited opposition in Portland State and a re-loading Stanford team) with Jay Hill’s defense yet to allow a touchdown through eight quarters, and just one measly field goal to the Cardinal as the only points allowed. Aiding a move to the brink of the rankings (26th in both polls this week), the brawling, physical Cougar defense is posting rush defense stats not seen since Syracuse’s 1959 national champs allowed just 193 yards on the ground for the whole season; even if just through two games, BYU is actually ahead of that pace, allowing just 14 rushing yards to date 0.3 yards per carry. Again, however, mostly the function of the opposition, which rakes a big step up this week.
Then there’s quarterback Bear Bachmeirer, a true freshman who has flashed some upside but is still making his first start away from home on Saturday, all the way on the other end of the country. Sitake and OC Aaron Roderick have been careful not to put too much on Bachmeier’s plate early, throwing mostly short and averaging just 19 passes through his first two outings. We suspect the Cougar brain trust is going to have to loosen the leash just a bit, if not a lot, for Bachmeier this week against an upgraded foe from the first two games.
How upgraded? Significantly, perhaps, as ECU is rated a legit dark horse in the AAC. Partly because of how well the team has responded to head coach Blake Harrell, who was promoted from DC at midseason a year ago when Mike Houston was given his walking papers. While auditioning for the full-time position, Harrell immediately got the Pirates on track and qualified for the Military Bowl, where the Pirates took down NC State. This made it an easy choice for AD Jon Gilbert. ECU has started the new season with three spread covers in as many games, which has upped the Pirates mark versus the number to 8-2 across the past 10 games as Harrell puts his stamp on the program.
Former Michigan State transfer quarterback Katin Houser, who impressed late last season, has graduated to true gunslinger class as he’s passed for nearly 1,000 yards through these first three games. Though the Pirates can tend to be a bit imbalanced, they’re not completely so and are doing just enough on the ground to keep defenses honest against Houser. It all came together nicely in last week’s 38-0 cruise past Coastal Carolina, marking two straight games without allowing a touchdown (a 56-3 win over Campbell preceded). Much like Brent Key at Georgia Tech, the turnaround was almost immediate for ECU when Harrell took charge, and if the Pirates keep punching above their weight, which includes four straight covers as an underdog, they can land inside of this near-TD spread, if not steal the result entirely.
Finally, a totals alert: BYU has landed Over in eight of its last 11 games, though it did fall short in its last game two weeks ago against Stanford.
Auburn at Oklahoma
Now that these two are in the same conference, we might get to see them face off a bit more, like last year at Jordan-Hare when the Sooners, a very short-priced underdog, scored a mild 27-21 upset. That was only the third all-time meeting after a couple of Sugar Bowls almost 45 years apart. Now, we’ve got the “Jackson Arnold Game,” as the portal component in college football can inadvertently create a lot more buzz than normal when a transferred quarterback faces the school he just left.
So, here’s Arnold, regarded in Arch Manning-like hype levels when signing for the Sooners out of high school and finally getting a chance to start in the 2023 Alamo Bowl before taking over as the OU starter last season. We saw some of the upside and dual-threat ability last fall, though Arnold was out when the Sooners visited Jordan-Hare last September; it was backup Michael Hawkins Jr. who piloted a low-risk offense and a mild 27-21 OU upset win. With Washington State’s John Mateer quickly enlisted by the Sooners in the December portal, Arnold was on the move and found a nice landing pad at Auburn, setting up these curious dynamics on Saturday.
Arnold, said by some SEC scouts to be enjoying slightly less scrutiny on the Plains than he was the savior label in Norman, has the Tigers off to a 3-0 start, including an impressive opening win at Baylor. This thus far confirms what many SEC sources believed, that Hugh Freeze’s offenses always work better with a mobile quarterback, which wasn’t really the MO for Michigan State transfer Payton Thorne, who piloted the Tigers much of the previous two years. Arnold’s running ability already provided big dividends for Auburn, and while his passing numbers are modest, he hasn’t tossed a pick in his first three games, either.
The Sooners might be a tougher test than Baylor, however, as Brent Venables finally looks to have the sort of defense at his disposal that his background as a high-profile DC would suggest. Last week at Temple, Owls quarterback Evan Simon barely had time to throw as waves of OU pass rushers descended upon him. The Sooners held Michigan freshman phenom Bryce Underwood to just nine completions in Week 2, so the effort has been consistent on that side of the ball, though they Sooners face more artillery this week. As for the dual-threat Mateer, all he’s done is move to the top of the Heisman Trophy betting list, but there are times when he can be a bit careless, which has already resulted in three interceptions.
The deciding factor will likely be the Tigers’ pass defense, which was hit for more than 400 yards by Baylor’s Sawyer Robertson in the opener, and has been a bit forgiving across the middle, where Mateer could do damage. Still, we’re reluctant to back the Sooners at this price, as the better Freeze teams in the past have had some bite as an underdog, and his Auburn seems to function better on the road, covering five of their last seven away from Jordan-Hare. Team trends also suggest we might not be in store for any shootout, as OU has gone Under each of its last four and five of its last six since late 2024, while Freeze is Under in seven of his last 10.
Michigan at Nebraska
Was that really Biff Poggi we saw on the Michigan sideline last week against Central Michigan? Believe it, as Poggi was brought back to Ann Arbor by Sherrone Moore after two seasons (well, 1 and 11/12 seasons) as the head coach at Charlotte. And, wouldn’t you know, with Moore serving two games of suspension this season (and two more slated for 2026), the in-game reins for the Wolverines have been turned over to none other than the portly Poggi, who could be excused for thinking wistfully about why he didn’t have this sort of material the past two years at Charlotte.
The task gets tougher for Poggi this week at Nebraska in a matchup of traditional heavyweights who are, in truth, probably not going to measure up on either side to their past champions. Unfortunately, by the time the Huskers entered the Big Ten, the glory days were well in the rearview mirror, and there hasn’t been a really memorable matchup between these two programs since, or anything to compare to their most notable clash in the Jan, 1, 1986 Fiesta Bowl. To 2025, and the concern on the Wolverines side is that another tough test on the road (after the 24-13 loss at Oklahoma two weeks ago) might be asking a bit much of this current entry that fell short in Norman.
The glass-half-full Michigan backers, however, can rationalize that — this season at least — the Sooners are better than the Cornhuskers (we’ll elaborate more on that in a moment) and that freshman whiz kid quarterback Bryce Underwood now has a road start under his belt, which he hadn’t two weeks ago. There is evidence of progress, however. Last week’s 63-3 mauling over Central Michigan was at the expense of what was regarded as a decent MAC side, and Underwood did a bit of everything, passing for 235 yards and running for another 114 in an effort that was quantum leap better than the Oklahoma game when Underwood was a frustrating 9-for-24 through the air. Alabama transfer RB Justice Haynes also recorded his third consecutive 100-yard rushing game last week and enters Lincoln averaging nearly eight yards per carry. The Michigan defense continues to hold its own, and in retrospect, holding a potent Sooners offense to 24 points in Week 2 was hardly a disqualifying performance.
So, what about Nebraska? Are the Huskers really ready to jump back into the elite level? Would a win here help catapult them back to prominence? What we do know is not to take their wins over the last two weeks over Akron and FCS Houston Christian too seriously. Matt Rhule channeled his inner Dr. Tom (who must have approved of the score lines) by winning 68-0 and 59-7, respectively. Those score lines reminded us more of the Turner Gill and Mike Rozier days in Lincoln, but back in the early 1980s, the Huskers didn’t schedule down in a such a manner, either. We almost want to disregard those last two games and look harder at the Cincinnati opener in Kansas City, which turned into a grinder that the Huskers barely survived with a 20-17 win.
What’s encouraging about the 3-0 start, however, has been sophomore quarterback Dylan Raiola avoiding mistakes that have plagued him in the past. He has no picks through three games, a far cry from last year when he tossed 13 TD passes but also 11 interceptions. We’re looking more at the Cincy game as the measuring stick for Nebraska, and for the moment, this looks not so much like a breakthrough (at least not yet) but an extension of recent Huskers sides that often flattered but usually deceived in the end. Falling short in these sorts of fork-in-the-road games has become de rigueur in Lincoln. Win one of these big games and we’ll start to change our tune with Nebraska, which is just 2-6-1 versus the spread its last nine games as a Big Ten host. Until then, we suspect it’s Michigan with more upside, especially with a quarterback who is likely to be a star before we get to Halloween. We’d rather make the Huskers prove they can win one of these showdowns before giving them our full-throated support.
Michigan State at USC
It’s been a while since the Spartans visited the LA Coliseum; believe it or not, this writer was there when they last did, on Sept. 29, 1978, a Friday night battle in the City of Angels during the days USC and UCLA would share the Coliseum as their home field. SC would win handily 30-9 in a clash that could have preceded a Rose Bowl rematch had MSU not been on probation that fall. Well, it’s not the ’70s anymore, and current Spartan head coach Jonathan Smith actually got a win the last time he coached at the Coliseum, as his 2021 Oregon State side romped to a 45-27 victory just after Clay Helton was given his walking papers by the Trojans.
Other than that, however, there are some reasons for concern on the Spartans side despite their 3-0 break from the gate. If 3-0 sounds familiar to MSU fans, it should, because that’s how the Spartans also started last year, and there are some eerie similarities to this season’s side, which also hasn’t impressed in its unbeaten start. In fact, MSU enters this weekend having dropped eight straight spread decisions, partly due to a collapse down the stretch last fall when the team lost seven of its last nine outright, and five of those losses were by 21 or more. Indeed, to this point, Smith’s Spartans still don’t resemble Smith’s Beaver squads that were notorious for punching above their weight. Following Smith from Corvallis, quarterback Aidan Chiles is now in his second year as a starter, and he’s posting decent stats (including 78% completions, though those are mostly dinks and dunks), but there is little electricity in the supporting cast, and big play threats are lacking. Meanwhile, the best foe MSU has faced, a modest Boston College entry, saw its quarterback Dylan Lonergan pass for a career-high 390 yards and four touchdowns in overtime win two weeks ago.
As for USC, it has finally cracked the rankings this week after its 3-0 start versus a schedule that looks like it was put together by Bill Snyder — Missouri State, Georgia Southern and Purdue are hardly a murderer’s row. We’ll find out more about the Trojans in coming weeks, but what we’ve seen thus far looks pretty good, especially a defense that appears to be even further upgraded for second-year DC D’Anton Lynn and has already recorded a couple of pick-sixes thanks to the various ballhawks in the secondary. Quarterback Jayden Maiava, a UNLV transfer, was good enough to force Miller Moss to transfer to Louisville in the offseason, and he has been curbing his mistakes, a big bugaboo last season. Maiava’s zero picks suggest he’s paying attention to Lincoln Riley as he gets the ball to a variety of weapons. This includes running backs, often overlooked by the Trojans since the Marcus Allen days, but they’re unleashing a new weapon in Waymond Jordan, who is picking up more than seven yards per carry. Riley has also been building a nice fortress out of the venerable Coliseum, where USC has covered seven of its last eight games.
The price is up there, to be sure, but until MSU, with some of the same cast as last fall, proves otherwise, much looks the same as a year ago with the Spartans … and we know how that turned out. The Trojans look capable of extending this margin to three touchdowns and beyond.
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