Conference play across college football kicks into high gear within the Big Ten, SEC and Big 12 in Week 4 and we’ve crunched the numbers with predictions and final picks for this weekend’s biggest games. Three nationally ranked matchups highlight the docket — No. 9 Illinois vs. No. 19 Indiana, No. 22 Auburn vs. No. 11 Oklahoma and No. 17 Texas Tech vs. No. 16 Utah — along with No. 21 Michigan vs. Nebraska separating early contenders from pretenders at the top of the league standings.
Matt Rhule is 0-6 against top 25 teams with the Huskers and has an opportunity on Saturday at home to post Nebraska’s first win over Michigan since 2013. Unbeatens Texas Tech and Utah square off in Salt Lake City, a battle featuring two of the nation’s most explosive offenses.
Last week’s results: Brad Crawford (5-5 straight, 5-5 ATS); Chris Hummer (8-2, 4-6 ATS). How do you go .500 straight up over a single weekend? That was my personal worst in four seasons, but it was salvaged with posting the same record against the number. Hummer’s 8-2 mark straight up — including Vanderbilt’s win at South Carolina and Georgia’s at Tennessee — pushes him ahead this fall in that category.
Season totals: Crawford (20-10 straight, 19-11 ATS); Hummer (23-7; 14-16).
For clarity, these lines were taken from FanDuel Sportsbook on Sept. 15.
Hummer (SMU +6.5): This is the last Iron Skillet that’s scheduled for a while, which is a shame for college football. But the game should at least be awesome. There’s a ton of familiarity between these two programs, including the coaching staffs. Watching SMU early this season, I don’t have a ton of faith its secondary can slow down Josh Hoover. But SMU is also going to move the ball against a TCU pass defense that’s been below average so far. I like the Horned Frogs to win. But the value is with the 6.5 and SMU. … TCU 38, SMU 34.
Crawford (TCU -6.5): Get your popcorn ready. This could be another race to 40 points in Fort Worth between teams with solid quarterback play up to this point. While the sample size is small, I trust TCU’s defensive plan more than what SMU will bring Saturday afternoon. The Horned Frogs are not a team any program in the Big 12 wants to deal with this season while SMU is another nonconference loss away from needing to go unbeaten in the ACC if it plans on returning to the playoff. …TCU 38, SMU 27.
No. 9 Illinois at No. 19 Indiana
Hummer (Illinois +4.5): This is a big test for Illinois’ offensive line, which has been a relative weak point this season ranking 112th in pressure rate allowed. Indiana, for its part, doesn’t have many on-paper weaknesses after a dominant nonconference stretch. But the Hoosiers also haven’t played anyone of significance. I think it’s hard to win on the road against a team that’s as well coached and explosive as Indiana. So, give me the Hoosiers. But I do think there’s value with Illinois ATS. I could see this coming down to a field goal. … Indiana 34, Illinois 31.
Crawford (Illinois +4.5): The Hoosiers are better than most expected. No true tests yet, but Indiana was supposed to take a step back after reaching new program highs last fall. Curt Cignetti wants none of that, apparently. The rest of the slate sets up extremely well for the Illini if they can go on the road and win this one at Indiana, but Illinois’ last two trips to Bloomington have resulted in losses. That’s going to happen, again. … Indiana 27, Illinois 23.
Hummer (USC -15.5): That’s a big line on paper. But there are some legitimate concerns for Michigan State if you drill down. The Spartans are 3-0, but their pass defense (98th nationally in opposing passer rating) and the play of Aidan Chiles, who’s been just OK despite his heroics against Boston College, are big questions. As for USC … I think the Trojans are good with a much-improved defense and one of the best wide receiver groups in the country. I like USC to cover here, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this line push toward 17 by week’s end. … USC 38, Michigan State 21.
Crawford (Michigan State +15.5): The Spartans are quietly unbeaten this season with Aidan Chiles showing signs of star power at quarterback and USC jumped into the top 25 this week after toppling Purdue. You know what that means? The Trojans will be playing under a tinge of pressure at home, especially with a nationally-ranked showdown against Illinois looming next week. This is what a trap game looks like and will be a top cover play for me this week. … USC 28, Michigan State 24.
South Carolina at No. 23 Missouri
Hummer (Missouri -12.5): I’ve thought all offseason that South Carolina was overvalued, and Missouri was being overlooked in the SEC discussion. That’s playing out so far as the Gamecocks have stumbled to 2-1 and the Tigers have just bullied people. Even before LaNorris Sellers suffered a concussion last week, I would have picked Missouri. With Sellers’ status in question? I think Missouri covers here with some gusto. The Missouri run game has a big day and the South Carolina O-line struggles. … Missouri 34, South Carolina 20.
Crawford (Missouri -12.5): The thought process changes here if LaNorris Sellers is available, but for now, I’m assuming sixth-year senior Luke Doty is the Gamecocks’ starting quarterback. This was going to be a difficult matchup for South Carolina even with Sellers out there given how much this offense has struggled under first-year OC Mike Shula and the way Missouri has handled this matchup in recent years. I love what Beau Pribula has brought to the Tigers and running back Ahmad Hardy needs no introduction after galloping his way to 250 yards in 2.5 quarters last week. … Missouri 31, South Carolina 10.
No. 22 Auburn at No. 11 Oklahoma
Hummer (Auburn +6.5): There are two key areas I’m watching in this game: 1. How does Oklahoma’s O-line hold up? 2. Can Jackson Arnold create through the air against what is an excellent Sooners defense? Frankly, I don’t feel great about either having a lot of success given Auburn’s excellent defensive front and Oklahoma’s secondary. But the play of those two groups will determine this game. I think John Mateer can take advantage of a shaky Auburn secondary, and Brent Venables knows how to gameplan against Arnold better than anyone. Give me Oklahoma to win in a rock fight. … Oklahoma 27, Auburn 21.
Crawford (Auburn +6.5): Jackson Arnold’s homecoming at Oklahoma. You think he’s been waiting for this one? It’s personal for the former Sooners transfer quarterback in this battle of unbeatens in the SEC to begin league play. Keep an eye on possible line movement later in the week for this matchup. If it crosses 7 points, that’s a bad sign for Hugh Freeze and the Tigers. For now, I’ll take the 6.5 and expect it to hover around there before kickoff. Give me the Sooners outright and the Tigers with the cover. … Oklahoma 26, Auburn 20.
Hummer (Purdue +27.5): People are dumping on Notre Dame’s defense after struggling the first two weeks. But Miami and Texas A&M are going to make a lot of people look bad. Still, the Irish secondary is a big issue. And that could pop up against a Purdue team that’s averaging more than 300 yards passing per game against FBS competition. Barry Odom schemes it up enough defensively that Purdue covers. … Notre Dame 38, Purdue 14.
Crawford (Purdue +27.5): Watching Purdue’s first three games this season, you can tell the Boilermakers are well-coached under Barry Odom. This roster is almost entirely new and filled with transfers as the changing of the guard is underway at the program. Notre Dame is shockingly winless, somehow still ranked and must win out from here to have a chance at the playoff. Marcus Freeman is going to have his fingerprints on the defensive play-calling and I expect the Irish to function better on that side of the football this week. … Notre Dame 41, Purdue 17.
No. 21 Michigan at Nebraska
Hummer (Nebraska +1.5): Nebraska’s dominated the last two weeks against Akron and Houston Christian. Michigan will be a much different test. There are legitimate concerns for the Huskers up front on both sides of the ball going back to their opener against Cincinnati, which could be an issue against the Wolverines. At the same time, Michigan needs to answer questions about their ability to generate points in the passing game. This is the type of game the Huskers haven’t been able to win in years. They get it done Saturday against a Wolverines team without Sherrone Moore. … Nebraska 21, Michigan 20.
Crawford (Nebraska +1.5): Does the suspension of Michigan coach Sherrone Moore play into this narrow betting line? It’s hard to say, especially after watching Michigan’s offense look a bit more wide open last week under interim coach Biff Poggi. This is the game where we see if the Huskers are legit this season with a shot at contending in the top-tier of the Big Ten. Matt Rhule’s entire tenure thus far has been leading up to this point and I’m going with Dylan Raiola to lead a game-winning drive and punctuate the program’s biggest win in a long time. … Nebraska 27, Michigan 24.
Hummer (Ole Miss -12.5): I’ve picked Ole Miss to cover two straight weeks, and it failed to do so each time. So why not make it three! Tulane is good. Really good. But the Rebels are a much different test than Northwestern and Duke. If there’s been an area of weakness this year for the Green Wave, it’s the offensive line, which ranks 102nd in pressure rate allowed. That could be a problem against Ole Miss, which while it isn’t an elite pass rush, it’s a very good one. Ole Miss is going to put up a lot of points. Can Tulane keep up after two straight huge wins? I think it’s a situation like South Florida last week where the Green Wave run out of momentum. … Ole Miss 38, Tulane 24.
Crawford (Tulane +12.5): This line’s fishy. Nothing we saw from last week’s results suggests the Rebels being a near two-touchdown favorite in this game. The Green Wave toppled Duke with a first-half flurry before hanging on late, and new starting quarterback Jake Retzlaff has been a shot in the arm for the program. There’s a chaos scenario brewing in the American that may include two playoff teams at season’s end. Win this game and Tulane gets that much closer. … Ole Miss 35, Tulane 24.
No. 17 Texas Tech at No. 16 Utah
Hummer (Texas Tech +3.5): This game could easily be a preview of the Big 12 title game, pitting the league’s most talented and expensive roster (Texas Tech) against the bully of the league in the trenches (Utah). Both teams have dominated so far with an average scoring margin of 46 for Texas Tech and 37 for Utah. So, what makes the difference in this game? It helps the Utes they’re playing at home. But mostly I think it’s Texas Tech’s ability to challenge Utah’s pass game in a way nobody else has this season. Devin Dampier is awesome but is still an inconsistent passer. Texas Tech, with an excellent secondary, takes advantage of that and wins a tight one. … Texas Tech 28, Utah 27.
Crawford (Texas Tech +3.5): My preseason pick to win the Big 12 this season, it’s not time to bail on the Red Raiders. They’re averaging a nation-leading 58.5 points per game, but may only get to half of that total this week since they’re facing an actual pass rush for the first time this fall. Utah is nearly unbeatable at home, but I think Texas Tech finds enough explosive plays downfield to prevail in a seismic conference opener for both nationally-ranked teams. … Texas Tech 31, Utah 30.
Florida at No. 4 Miami
Hummer (Miami -7.5): This is a ‘Play for your coach’ game as Billy Napier’s status is very much in doubt pending the result. Florida, despite a pair of losses, is a pretty good football team. Good O-line, good run defense. The problem is the Gators aren’t getting pressure (132nd nationally in pressure rate) and the passing game is shaky. That’s a tough combination against one of the best O-lines in college football and a Miami offense that’s going to score. I think Florida players are going to play hard. I just don’t know if this version of Florida — as banged up as it is — can stop a national title contender. … Miami 27, Florida 17.
Crawford (Miami -7.5): Fade bad teams. I have to follow that rule this week with the Gators traveling south to take on the Hurricanes. DJ Lagway is not a confident player at the moment, part of that due to the lack of overall practice time with limited reps this offseason. Miami is currently power-rated as my No. 1 team in college football and I expect the Hurricanes to post another impressive win after taking out South Florida last week. … Miami 27, Florida 17.
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