New York’s Luke WeaverJason Miller/Getty Images
The New York Mets had been the ones from the Big Apple riding some “Playoff Pumpkin” mojo this October, but it was the New York Yankees whose magical carriage turned back into a stinking, rotting gourd Thursday night in Game 3 of their ALCS against the Cleveland Guardians.
To be abundantly clear, the Yankees are no Cinderella story.
In Game 3, Aaron “$360 Million” Judge and Giancarlo “$325 Million” Stanton went back-to-back in the eighth inning off what had been indisputably the best closer in 2024, Emmanuel Clase, to take that stunning lead.
If anything, the Yankees are the wicked stepmother trying to keep this year’s true Cinderella from finally having its ball dance 76 years in the making.
Over the past six playoff games leading up to Thursday’s epic implosion, though, the Yankees had a fairy godmother or something tricking us all into believing their bullpen was a flawless princess.
New York’s Clay HolmesDustin Satloff/Getty Images
Well-established, dominant closers crashed and burned left and right throughout the Wild Card and Division Series rounds of the postseason—Devin Williams, Josh Hader, Edwin Díaz and Clase each had at least one meltdown. Meanwhile, the Yankees just kept throwing up zeroes regardless of who came on in relief.
The ones who entered the postseason with a gigantic “BULLPEN” tattooed across their resume as the blatantly obvious Achilles’ heel that could be their undoing.
According to FanGraphs, the team’s bullpen was worth 1.5 WAR from May 20th through the end of the regular season, which is 23rd best in the majors and 12th best among playoff teams.
12 teams make the MLB postseason.
Before Labor Day, Luke Weaver had not recorded a save since playing summer ball in the Cape Cod League in 2012. But after four saves in September, he owned October with four saves and a line of 7.0 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, and 9 K.
Weaver—he of the career 5.14 ERA through his first eight seasons in the big leagues—only assumed the role of closer for the Bronx Bombers because, by Aaron Boone’s own admission, they needed to “get creative.”
Clay Holmes had blown more saves (13) in a single season than any other pitcher in the history of tracking blown saves, posting a 5.14 ERA—Hold up, didn’t I just type “5.14 ERA” a second ago about Weaver?—from late May through early September.
Yet, through the first six games of the postseason, Holmes had been every bit as lethal as Weaver, appearing in every game with two wins and two holds to show for his 6.2 innings of scoreless work.
Throw in Tommy Kahnle, Tim Hill, and a few single-game contributors and the Yankees bullpen entered Game 3 in Cleveland with a 0.77 ERA in 23.1 IP.
There was just something about that José Ramírez home run off Weaver in Game 2, though, wasn’t there?
It didn’t *seem* to mean anything at the moment, merely turning a 6-2 game into what would be the final score of 6-3. But maybe it was the beginning of the magic wearing off; the first spoke of the carriage wheel transforming back into a vine.
It looked as though all hope was lost in Cleveland.
Judge and Stanton sucked the life out of the fans at Progressive Field, who were just beginning to actually believe that, yes, maybe they could come back from the 2-0 series deficit.
Stephen Vogt challenged whether Stanton touched first base during his home run trot, which felt like one of the saddest Hail Mary attempts ever.
That came after his equally strange decision to not just bring in Clase to face Juan Soto in pursuit of a four-out save on four days rest, considering he had a five-out save and a six-out save in the ALDS and left-handed hitters had gone 14-for-122 (.115 AVG) with no home runs and four walks off Clase during the regular season, but I digress.
Then, after Weaver fanned David Fry with two on and two out to end the eighth inning, the Yankees tacked on an insurance run with help from an error when Anthony Volpe was dead to rights in a rundown between second and third.
A few minutes later, the Yankees were up two with two outs and no one on base in the bottom of the ninth.
Their mathematical win probability was 98.5 percent, but between the circumstances that led to that two-run lead and how well Weaver had been dealing over the past month and a half—that Ramírez solo shot in Game 2 was the first non-“ghost runner” he had allowed to score since September 2—it felt more like 100.5 percent.
But then the wheels came off.
Lane Thomas smoked a Weaver four-seamer about 17 feet up the 19-foot wall in left-center for a double before Jhonkensy Noel destroyed a changeup that might have hit Santa Claus in his home at the North Pole.
Statcast put that game-tying home run at 404 feet, but it looked more like 4,004. That thing was gone in an instant, and so was the aura of Weaver serving as some sort of Mariano Rivera clone.
After a truly unbelievable defensive play by Andrés Giménez and Josh Naylor kept the Yankees from scoring in the top of the 10th, it was Holmes’ turn to lose his glass slipper, too.
Bo Naylor had been 0-for-14 in the postseason and had not reached base in 22 plate appearances dating back to September 25, but he took the first pitch that he saw and ripped a single through the hole between Anthony Rizzo and Gleyber Torres. After a sacrifice bunt got him to second and a groundout to the pitcher moved him to third, it was Fry’s chance at redemption.
Before we get to the dinger, let’s talk about that groundout.
Holmes fielded that ball and looked at Naylor, who was stuck in no man’s land between second and third. But instead of running at him and getting what surely would have been an out, Holmes just kind of let him get to third, choosing instead to retire Steven Kwan at first for the second out.
New York Post Sports @nypostsports
Clay Holmes decides not to throw it third and take the out at first instead pic.twitter.com/pwXyorvLxH
The problem is this made Holmes an extremely predictable pitcher.
With the winning run on third base, he was afraid to go to his slider or sweeper—by far the two most effective thirds of his three-pitch arsenal all season—for fear of wild pitching in the walk-off. So he threw Fry four consecutive sinkers, with the fourth one landing in the left-centerfield seats for a walk-off blast.
Two earned runs from Weaver.
Two earned runs from Holmes.
And we didn’t even bother to touch on the fact that Kahnle, Tim Mayza and Ian Hamilton were all over the place before that, combining to walk five of the 15 batters they faced, albeit somehow only allowing one run to score.
In a New York Minute in Cleveland, that entire Yankees bullpen went from impenetrable back to Swiss Cheese.
Granted, they’re still up 2-1, and they did almost as much confidence-destroying damage against that vaunted Guardians bullpen.
After spending New York’s first five postseason games hearing nonstop about Judge’s shortcomings, he has delivered massive home runs in back-to-back games. Stanton’s now up to three key homers of his own. And Soto, Volpe and Torres are all getting on base at a clip of .400 or better.
It’s been 10 games since the Yankees last scored more than six runs in a contest, but it does feel like their offense could just go off on Gavin Williams in Game 4 and probably Tanner Bibee on short rest in Game 5, building up leads the bullpen couldn’t possibly blow and making it back to the World Series for the first time since 2009.
But thanks to the Yankees’ Achilles’ heel we all knew was there all along, this ALCS just went from “Where did I leave that broom?” to “Where’s that gif of The Undertaker popping up out of the casket?”
The Yankees are still favored. Big time. DraftKings has them as -360 favorites to win the ALCS heading into Game 4.
But if they blow this lead, well, that’s kind of their thing.
Kerry Miller covers Major League Baseball and men’s college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on X: @KerranceJames
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