After a grueling season in K League 2, Incheon United’s momentum is beginning to slow down. But have they done enough to guarantee a quick return to the top flight? Our writers predict the final 10 rounds.
There was no change at the top of K League 2 after Incheon United and Suwon Bluewings went on the road and secured much-needed victories, in extraordinarily different circumstances. However, that only begins to tell the story on what was an incredible night of football. The league leaders raced into an unassailable 4-0 lead (or so we thought) away to Cheonan City with 30 minutes to play. But if there’s one K League club that loves a miraculous comeback, it is Cheonan.
Suwon Samsung celebrate the only goal of the game in Mokdong.
Aboubacar Toungara pulled one back for the Sky Blues on 69 minutes. Kim Gun-hee then headed a cross into his own net to halve the deficit with time left. Unfortunately for Cheonan, by the time Bruno Paraíba scored from the spot in the 101st minute, their valiant effort had fallen short. Meanwhile, 97 km north in Mokdong, Suwon, were hanging on for dear life against a rampant Seoul E-Land.
Stanislav Iljutcenko scored the only goal of the match in the first half. Suwon later hit the post and had a goal chalked off. Their inability to find a second nearly proved decisive as Seoul peppered their goal in the final minutes. Spanish legend Osmar went closest, admitting to K League United in the mixed zone that he thought his left-footed volley had found the bottom corner in the 95th minute, only for Yang Hyung-mo to pull off a great save.
A last-gasp Seoul equalizer would likely have ended the title race, but with 30 points still to play for, the destination of the K League 2 trophy isn’t confirmed for Sungui Arena. Yet. A look at the run-in suggests Suwon have the kinder schedule. But have they run out of road?
Ansan Greeners supporter Mike Brandon joins to give the neutral perspective. Mike has seen his side face both Suwon and Incheon this year, so he is best-placed to give an opinion on the strength of the title-chasing clubs. Naturally, as an Ansan fan, he would have expected his club to be in contention, too. But not this year.
Incheon United fan Luke Evans and Bluewings supporter Andrew Farrell complete the discussion. We examine the remaining 10 fixtures and predict the results. Who’ll come out on top? Find out below.
Here’s the current K League 2 standings after 29 matches.
Incheon are 10 points clear. (c) Flashscore.
Happy-to-be-here Mike’s insights:
Coming in to talk as a neutral on the K League 2 title race has an insulting feel to it, given my own side is rooted to the bottom of the table. Nevertheless, the form table at the time of writing at least throws up a commonality, and that is both Incheon and Suwon Bluewings are in a relatively sticky patch, having picked up just seven and five points from the last 15 available, respectively.
However, the inconsistency of teams in the league renders that a somewhat moot issue. The run-in looks somewhat trickier for Incheon, though they have the chance to put this to rest in October at home to Suwon, and I do not see them failing to come away with the points there. Having seen my team beaten by both adversaries this season, there is a clear difference that sets the two apart. Incheon, even when not playing well, looks like an industrious outfit, with a class above the level of the league. Any inconsistencies they have shown are a product of where they are; a relegated team, but still the best one in this league.
Suwon, on the other hand, looks like a K League 2 side, only with a larger budget and fanbase. Incheon’s brief stay has been a great chance for K League 2 sides to travel to a big side and see a much higher standard of player. Bluewings brought that same feel last season, but they do not look like they are ready on the pitch yet to return to the top flight. Instead, the conversation may be more about whether or not Suwon will be the top play-off seed. The current form table would have Busan chasing Suwon down, and if Bucheon rally, they also have a chance to usurp the Bluewings, and those five days in October could get messy for them.
Once teammates, Jung and Delbridge battle for possession.
Both sides are clearly too big for this division, and from a neutral, they have my thanks for the atmosphere they have brought to the typically cavernous feel of a K League 2 stadium. However, it looks like only the team in blue and black will be moving on up this season.
Cautious Luke’s thoughts:
Throughout the season, I’ve been tracking Incheon’s performance in the form of points per game at various stages to see how the team was performing in the long term. The first 16 rounds saw Incheon amass 41 points at a rate of 2.6 points per game (ppg). Suwon Bluewings, at the time, were hovering just above 1.9 ppg. When I checked again in mid-August, Incheon had dropped to 2.35 ppg. With ten games to go, Incheon are at 2.24 ppg, and Suwon at 1.89. Both teams have dropped more points than expected over the summer, but Suwon have maintained a consistency over the course of the season that Incheon hasn’t.
But what does any of this mean? Well, statistically, with a ten-point lead and a better points-per-game return overall, Incheon should be champions sooner rather than later. However, we all know that with statistics, previous outcomes are independent of future outcomes. Looking at the final ten games for both teams, it’s hard to see where the Bluewings will drop points. With six home games to play and mostly favorable away trips, I’ve predicted them not to lose again this year. I’ve controversially predicted that they’ll beat Incheon in their Chuseok fixture, despite having lost to Incheon twice already this year. I have a gut feeling that Incheon aren’t as solid as in previous meetings and that Bluewings will be more desperate for the points. Additionally, aside from draws with Bucheon and Jeonnam Dragons, I expect that Bluewings will win every game they have left. Should this pan out, they’ll earn 26 points from their remaining 10 games. This would see Suwon Bluewings finish on 81 points.
Now, for Incheon. Currently on 65 points, a total of 7 wins or 86 points would guarantee Incheon the title regardless of what Suwon does. So where do Incheon’s wins come from? Next week’s game is hard. The previous result against Gimpo was a fractious affair, and emotions still run high. This could work for or against Incheon. Keeping a calm head and doing what needs to be done is most important, but it will be a tough game. Hopefully, the Blue-Black can get the three points. Next, Incheon travel to Mokdong to face Seoul E-land. This game will also be difficult, as the Leopards are still in the hunt for a playoff finish and were only narrowly beaten by Suwon Bluewings last week. In this game, I’ve actually predicted an E-land win. Incheon’s defense has been shaky recently, and with a lack of rotation options, some players seem to be running on empty.
In both of Incheon’s next two games, avoiding defeat is important. Following that is a trip to Hwaseong. Sitting in tenth position currently, they’ve had a decent season but realistically don’t have much to play for. Hopefully, an Incheon win.
Here’s where the sky potentially comes crashing down: a home fixture against Bluewings and a trip to Tancheon to play Seongnam, a team who have beaten Incheon twice this year. I’ve predicted back-to-back defeats here, purely on gut feeling. If you’re keeping score, that’s two wins from the next five games, and a total of 71 points by mid-October. The next month is really tough for Incheon, and in three of the games, avoiding defeat could feel like a victory.
The mastermind behind Incheon’s dominance. Yoon Jong-hwan.
In comparison, Incheon finish the season with a relatively easy run-in. Incheon face Ansan at the Wa, the southern duo of Gyeongnam and Busan at home, and a trip down to Jeonnam before finishing the season at home to Cheongju. At least three of those clubs won’t have anything to play for. The Jeonnam game will be tricky, particularly after they beat Incheon earlier in the season, and they will be looking to improve their playoff chances. The rest? You’d hope for 12 points. I’ve predicted four wins and a draw against Jeonnam to finish the season. That would be a total of 84 points, three more than I expect Bluewings to manage, but given the way the second half of the season has gone, I’m not expecting plain sailing.
The next month is vital in keeping a buffer at the top. If Incheon avoid defeats against E-land, Gimpo, and Bluewings, they should be home safe. The Bluewings’ six-pointer could win it mentally, if Incheon win. A defeat could see an extraordinary collapse. People have said for months that the title race is over – if there even was one – but in K League, anything is possible, and we’re now looking at a team who are ten points ahead and arguably only marginal favorites.
Miserable Andrew’s synopsis:
Suwon to end on 80 points. Incheon to win the league on 85. I predict Suwon will shave off some of Incheon’s current 10-point lead, but by losing for the third time this season against their rivals in early October, it will effectively end the title race. Incheon are not unbeatable, as we’ve seen, though they have no fears when facing the Bluewings. In fact, they’ve won five of the recent 10 matches. Incheon’s trickier run-in will force them to wait a little longer than they’d like to lift that trophy.
Kim Ji-hyun has been a good source of goals. He netted versus Incheon in the summer.
There can be no denying Incheon’s brilliance over the year. They shouldn’t have been relegated last year. Incheon spent as much time in the top six as they did 12th in 2024. Unfortunately, they were in 12th when the music stopped, shocking the league by following Seongnam and Suwon down to the second tier. Incheon, however, did what Suwon didn’t 12 months previously. They hired an established manager to take them back up. Suwon went with inexperience, and look what has happened. It also helps that Incheon had the reigning K League 1 top scorer on their books, two excellent wide forwards who are used to terrorizing defenses, top-class young defenders, and experience in the middle of the park.
Naturally, their form has slipped, as Luke mentioned above. Whenever Incheon dropped points, the damage was negated by Suwon’s inability to capitalize. It is likely Yoon Jong-hwan’s side will drop more points between now and November, by virtue of a difficult set of fixtures, but the championship was won a long time ago. You could argue it was won when they convinced Yoon Jong-hwan his future lay on the west coast. Gimpo, Seoul E-Land, Busan IPark, and Suwon will all provide stern tests of the champions-elect.
For Suwon, I’m torn on their remaining fixtures. On paper, they probably should be winning nine, but nothing about their 2025 season suggests that they will. Their forward line is K League 1 quality, even though they’ve struggled to keep Bruno Silva and Paulinho fit for most of the season. The problems exist elsewhere; despite heavy investment in their back-line, Suwon have conceded far too many goals. And they often concede first. Chasing a match is never ideal, even against city-owned clubs with no budget. So even though I think they should end the season strongly, does that mean they will? What have Suwon done to instill such confidence? Answers please to Byun Sung-hwan.
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