Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola and Michigan’s Bryce Underwood have a lot in common. Both were five-star prospects coming out of high school who originally committed to SEC schools before changing their minds and heading north to the Big Ten. Raiola was committed to Georgia, while Underwood famously flipped from LSU to Michigan shortly before the early signing period in November 2024.
Both players are also looked at as saviors for their program. Raiola certainly bears a heavier burden in that aspect, seeing as how it’s been 28 years since Nebraska’s last national title, while Michigan won in 2023. Still, if you ask a Michigan fan who watched the Wolverines QB play in 2024, that one season felt like 25.
On Saturday, the two will meet in a game that might define the season for both programs. No. 21 Michigan will head to Lincoln to face the Cornhuskers in their second difficult road test of the season. For Raiola and Nebraska, the game serves as a chance to announce their presence as a legitimate threat in the Big Ten and College Football Playoff race.
Tom Fornelli’s College Football Power Ratings: Penn State leaps Georgia as Big Ten teams own top three spots
Tom Fornelli
While the Cornhuskers were able to end their seven-year bowl drought with Raiola last season, none of their seven wins came against a ranked opponent. Losses to Illinois, Indiana and Ohio State stretched Nebraska’s losing streak against ranked teams to an astounding 27 games. The last win came all the way back in 2016 against Oregon. It’s a monkey Matt Rhule has been trying to get off his back as well, as he’s gone 0-17 against ranked opponents in his tenures at Baylor and Nebraska. His lone two wins came at Temple.
The hope is that Raiola can help put an end to those struggles. He nearly pulled it off last year, as Nebraska’s losses to Illinois and Nebraska came by 11 points total (the Indiana loss was quite a different story). It must be pointed out, however, that while the scores were close, Raiola was not at his best. He completed 65.8% of his passes, but averaged only 6.2 yards per attempt, which is a full yard below his career mark of 7.2. He also failed to take care of the football.
Raiola has thrown 11 interceptions in 16 career games, and five of them came in those three losses, as did four of his eight career fumbles. His three interceptions against Indiana were a big reason that game spiraled out of control, and if he doesn’t make better decisions against Michigan, Nebraska could suffer a familiar fate.
|
vs. Ranked Opponents |
117.4 |
65.8% |
6.2 |
2.7% |
4.5% |
|
vs. Unranked Opponents |
145.2 |
69.7% |
7.5 |
4.6% |
1.5% |
Of course, all true freshman QBs go through bumps and bruises, particularly when the quality of opponent rises. Raiola understands that from his experiences, and Michigan’s Underwood already knows it himself.
It was two games ago that Underwood made his first career road start against one of the best defenses in the country. It didn’t go well! Underwood completed only 9 of his 24 pass attempts for 142 yards, though if there was a silver lining, it’s that he didn’t turn the ball over despite being pressured on 46.2% of his dropbacks. He was also sacked only once. Those are encouraging signs, and considering Nebraska’s defense is ranked 91st nationally with a pressure rate of 29.1%, there’s a chance he won’t find himself under such duress this week.
But not everything is working in his favor. Michigan will be without Sherrone Moore again for this game as he continues to serve a two-game suspension stemming from Michigan’s sign-stealing scandal. Some Michigan fans may consider this good news because Underwood looked to have a longer leash last week with Biff Poggi running the show.
Underwood threw for 349 yards and averaged 9.4 yards per attempt and 12.6 air yards per attempt as the Wolverines crushed Central Michigan 63-3. But was that a philosophical shift, or was it a case of Michigan being a whole lot better at football than Central Michigan?
We’ll have to wait until Saturday to find out, but while we don’t know the result, we know it will have tremendous consequences for both teams. A loss for Michigan drops the Wolverines to 2-2 on the year. They’d be 0-1 in conference play with games remaining against USC, Washington and Ohio State. The path to a Big Ten title would be complicated, and they’d probably need to win out to have a realistic shot at an at-large berth.
For Nebraska, the loss could hurt from a confidence angle. Not only would it be the team’s 28th straight loss to a ranked opponent, it would also be Nebraska’s sixth straight loss in a Big Ten opener. The Huskers would also have tough games remaining against USC and Penn State. A loss would put a severe damper on their hopes and dreams, while a win could set them up for an outstanding season.
It’s only one game on the schedule, but it will have a huge impact on the season for both.
Cut off the sleeves, Biff
It clearly did not impact Michigan against Central Michigan, but Central Michigan is a bad team. Nebraska is not. Biff Poggi needs to give serious consideration to cutting off the sleeves for this trip to Lincoln. You aren’t back in the boardroom, coach. This is a Big Ten sideline. Suns out, guns out.
The B1G’s other Big Game
As odd as it feels to say it, there may not be a bigger football game in the country this week than the one between No. 9 Illinois and No. 19 Indiana. It’s a battle of two football schools who recently woke up and decided they wanted to try football too and experienced outstanding results.
Illinois has lived up to the offseason hype so far, starting 3-0 to climb to the top 10, and two weeks ago went on the road and beat Duke by 26. So they head to Bloomington with an experienced roster that’s already been battle-tested, but will face a much more difficult test here.
On the flip side, you have an Indiana team that’s shown it doesn’t plan to go anywhere after taking the nation by surprise last year. A roster that features plenty of new faces, but has had three easy nonconference games to give those new players the runway needed to figure it out together.
However, while I have no idea how this one will go, these are the moments when I wonder if Curt Cignetti’s nonconference scheduling practices hurt. Playing games against Old Dominion, Kennesaw State, and Indiana State don’t do much to prepare you for a team currently ranked in the top 10.
That said, while Illinois has been tested, it’s yet to play a clean game. There was plenty to clean up following the Duke win, and even last week’s 38-0 win over Western Michigan featured plenty of room for growth.
Like I said, this one could go either direction, and the winner will get a serious boost to their Big Ten and playoff hopes. I can’t wait to watch it.
I don’t know how to fix UCLA
The news that UCLA fired DeShaun Foster shouldn’t have been much of a surprise when it came down on Sunday. The Bruins were not only off to an 0-3 start, but lost at home to New Mexico 35-10 in a buy game. It was also their second loss to a Mountain West team in as many weeks, with both losses coming off an embarrassing performance against Utah in the season-opener.
Foster never had a chance to succeed. He took over in mid-February 2024 after a series of unexpected dominoes led to an opening. Then, Boston College coach Jeff Hafley left to become the defensive coordinator of the Green Bay Packers, which opened the door for Ohio State offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien to take the Boston College job. That gave Chip Kelly the chance to abandon what he felt was a sinking ship, making the unprecedented move of leaving his position as a P4 head coach to become the offensive coordinator of a school in the same conference.
It’s a choice that looks wise in retrospect. Kelly won a natty at Ohio State and parlayed that into a return to the NFL, where he’s now running the Las Vegas Raiders offense.
So there was Foster taking over a program late in the process after a hiring cycle that didn’t seem very appealing. The former UCLA running back had spent time as a grad assistant and running backs coach with the Bruins (as well as one season in the same role at Texas Tech in 2016) before being elevated to head coach out of necessity.
He took over a program with serious financial problems (problems that helped lead UCLA to the Big Ten in the first place, and hampered the school’s ability to attract a more proven option), and while those financials have likely improved somewhat thanks to some of that Big Ten revenue, they certainly aren’t solved completely.
So now UCLA is in the same position it found itself when it hired Foster. An open job that’s likely not as attractive as those in charge think. I have no clue how UCLA digs itself out of this mess, or how long it’ll take to do so.
This week’s B1G Question
Can anybody stop the Rutgers offense?
OK, sure, probably. The Knights haven’t started Big Ten play yet, and aside from this week’s opener against Iowa, they do have to play Oregon, Illinois, Ohio State and Penn State, all of whom have strong defenses.
But we’ll worry about that later! I simply want to point out how good the Rutgers offense has been to start the season. It’s been one of the best offenses in the country through three games. Look at these numbers from TruMedia.
|
Rutgers Offense |
4.41 (5th) |
51.1% (24th) |
0.54 (12th) |
0.16 (35th) |
3.7% (1st) |
22.94 (23rd) |
0.0% (t-1st) |
Obviously, this has been done against Ohio, Miami (Ohio) and Norfolk State. They’re not the greatest teams on the planet, but I will remind you that Rutgers finished sixth in the Big Ten last year in points per game at 28.9. Sure, the number dropped to 24 in conference play, which ranked only ninth, but I remember a time not too long ago when Rutgers couldn’t score 14 points per game in conference play.
Hell, in 2019, they averaged 5.7. That’s right, they scored only 51 points across nine Big Ten games. The Knights have come a long way since then, and I’d better see Athan Kaliakmanis getting some all-B1G love at the end of the year if he keeps playing this way.
King Kirk
Iowa beat UMass 47-7 last week in a game that was remarkable for two reasons. The first is that Iowa scored 47 points in a single game after managing only 47 in its first two (and that includes a game against Albany).
The second, far more important reason is that the win gave Kirk Ferentz his 206th win at Iowa, moving him past Ohio State’s Woody Hayes for the most wins in Big Ten football history. Ferentz has been at Iowa since 1999, and it’s sometimes easy to forget how successful he’s been there.
Especially when we’re all busy having fun at the expense of his offense.
Regardless, it’s a remarkable accomplishment, and true to Ferentz form, he barely seemed all that excited about it. Also, if you’re wondering whose next in line among active Big Ten coaches, it’s Penn State’s James Franklin. He’s at 104, so only 102 more to go before he catches Kirk.
Going with my gut
Every week I pick the Big Ten games against the spread based on nothing but my gut reaction to the number. No digging into numbers — just vibes, baby. I even track my record to embarrass myself publicly. Any game not included is due to there not being a posted line at time of publishing.
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
No. 21 Michigan at Nebraska: I’ve written plenty about this one already, but when it comes to picking the winner, there are two things pushing more toward Nebraska. The first is that the Wolverines still won’t have their head coach, which could lead to some confusion in a tough environment. The second is that Bryce Underwood is still a true freshman, and while it’s no longer his first road start, the last road start didn’t go well. Nebraska’s defense isn’t Oklahoma’s, but I’m more confident in the Cornhuskers being able to handle business at home than I am this Michigan team on the road. Pick: Nebraska +2.5
Iowa at Rutgers (Friday) — Rutgers +2.5
Maryland at Wisconsin — Wisconsin -8.5
Oregon State at No. 6 Oregon — Oregon -34.5
Purdue at No. 24 Notre Dame — Purdue +26.5
No. 9 Illinois at No. 19 Indiana — Illinois +3.5
Washington at Washington State — Washington -20.5
Michigan State at No. 25 USC — USC -17.5
Last Week: 7-2
Season: 23-16
Read the full article here