NHL teams are increasingly betting on young players with limited experience, trying to lock in future stars at bargain rates before the salary cap skyrockets. Hit the mark, and you save millions, but miss it, and you’re stuck with an expensive contract that doesn’t deliver.
We saw two such deals recently when the Chicago Blackhawks signed forward Frank Nazar to a controversial $46-million extension after just 56 NHL games. We saw another deal this week, as the Calgary Flames signed Calder Finalist Dustin Wolf to a seven-year, $7.5-million per season contract.
Who else might fall under this high-risk, high-reward category?
Lane Hutson, D, Montreal Canadiens
With 84 NHL games under his belt, Lane Hutson has shown elite skill and tremendous upside as one of the NHL’s great future defensemen. The Montreal Canadiens know he will eventually cost them a bundle to extend, but the question is, when do they do it?
Is GM Kent Hughes willing to gamble on Hutson’s upside now? He could secure a long-term deal before the cap makes him unaffordable, but his rookie season might have been a benchmark he has trouble repeating in his sophomore campaign.
The risk Montreal runs is that Hutson not only matches last season’s totals but also becomes even more impactful offensively while adding elements to his two-way and defensive play.
Cutter Gauthier, LW, Anaheim Ducks
Cutter Gauthier, with just 45 points in 83 NHL games, is another forward attracting attention. He appeared to break out for the Ducks in 2024-25, scoring 44 points in 82 games, but it’s not clear how much more he has to give as he gets more used to NHL games.
There is a lot to like about his game, and the Ducks are in a position to gamble on his contract. They have loads of cap space over the next several seasons, including $56-million starting next season.
Early extensions here are risky, but if he hits his ceiling, the payoff could be huge.
Other Notable Options
Brandt Clarke and Simon Edvinsson, each with 103 games, have recently established themselves as NHL regulars.
There were trade rumors surrounding Clarke this summer, so it’s unclear how loyal the Los Angeles Kings are to the defenseman. His upside, however, is incredible.
Edvinsson, a 6-foot-6 defenseman, is part of the young core the Detroit Red Wings are trying to develop. He took a giant step forward, and he has the potential to be a No. 1 defenseman.
Locking them in now could allow teams to save big if they blossom into top-pair defensemen.
Less Risky Bets
Macklin Celebrini (70 games), Will Smith (74) and Matvei Michkov (80) are still in Year 2 of their contracts, but it’s a bit clearer about what they are. All still have untapped potential, but these are three players their respective teams understand to be future franchise commodities.
Teams may pursue short-term “bridge” deals this season, giving flexibility while evaluating long-term potential. So too, the players themselves might prefer gambling on their potential and what could be massive pay raises in the next three to four seasons.
Lessons From Nazar And Wolf
Nazar and Wolf signed huge contracts with minimal NHL experience, showing the potential upside of early investments. Both sound like good bets on the surface, and perhaps the two teams would rather be wrong and have to slightly overpay than be right and have missed the opportunity to sign both. A skyrocketing salary cap makes it so that teams have to take these kinds of calculated risks and work the math.
The Canadiens, Ducks, Kings and Red Wings may feel the same way. If Hutson, Gauthier, Clarke or Edvinsson follow similar trajectories, these contracts could be steal deals in the coming salary cap boom.
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