Racing Insights: Can Christopher Bell complete the JGR sweep at Bristol?

With two races down in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs, the sun will set on four title hopefuls this Saturday night at the “Last Great Colosseum” and end their playoff run early (7:30  ET, USA Network, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio, NBC Sports App).

Racing Insights has a wealth of data to help gauge who might advance in the postseason and who might be eliminated.

RELATED: Bristol weekend schedule | Cup Series Playoffs standings

For starters, it doesn’t take much to understand that the Toyotas of Joe Gibbs Racing have come to play in the first two Round of 16 races. With Chase Briscoe dominating the Southern 500 opener and Denny Hamlin flexing late at Gateway, there’s good reason to think the organization could produce a clean sweep of the first round and lock all three of its drivers into the Round of 12 via a win.

That third driver would be Christopher Bell, who opened the season on a red-hot streak of three consecutive victories after crashing out of the Daytona 500. Bell was hot for a different reason last weekend, admittedly frustrated that the No. 20 team hadn’t been able to replicate the same success Briscoe and Hamlin have been thriving with over the past few months. But can Bell turn that fire around into a statement win at Thunder Valley?

Going to Bristol, it’s no secret that Hamlin and Kyle Larson are the favorites, with both drivers combining to win six of the last nine races here. However, while Bell has yet to dominate a race at the Tennessee track to the level of Hamlin or Larson, his career numbers at the “World’s Fastest Half-Mile” point out that he might erupt for a convincing triumph. He’s finished in the top 10 in each of his last five starts and has led a total of 359 laps over that span. Plus, Bell ranks third in speed, long-run speed and passing at Bristol in the Next Gen car, behind Larson and Hamlin in each of those categories, according to NASCAR Insights. Finally, Bell leads all drivers in laps run in the top 10 at Bristol since 2022, proven by the fact he’s scored points every stage here over the last six races.

Another case for why C-Bell could be in Victory Lane on Saturday night is that two of his playoff wins have come in elimination races. Granted, he was in a “must-win scenario” for both of those events (Roval and Martinsville in 2022), and he only needs 36 points to advance this weekend. However, the emotion he showed last weekend is a telling sign that the No. 20 driver is hungry to return to Victory Lane.

FANTASY: Set your lineup | Make a 36 for 36 pick

OTHER DRIVERS TO WATCH

KYLE LARSON: Larson has put up generational numbers in the last two races here, leading just over 87% of the last 1,000 laps run at Bristol, which is only comparable to when Bobby Allison led 903 laps over a two-race span in 1972. He’s eyeing to become the first driver to win three straight Bristol races since Kurt Busch in 2004.

JOEY LOGANO: The last time Logano entered the Bristol Night Race as the defending champ, he was eliminated from the playoffs. With no lead lap finishes in the last five races here, there’s some cause for concern.

ROSS CHASTAIN: With 19 points to the good, Chastain is another driver who will be sweating out the 500-lapper to advance. However, since 2022, he ranks eighth in long-run speed, defense and restarts at Bristol and could easily be in the mix.

AUSTIN DILLON: Now here’s a driver that can make some noise on the bubble, as Dillon finished 10th here in the spring. Through 20 career starts at Bristol, Dillon has only two DNFs, so he could capitalize on chaos if it strikes.

ALEX BOWMAN: Bowman has scored the last two poles at the high-banked short track and ranks in the top 10 in both speed and long-run speed at Bristol in the Next Gen era, according to NASCAR Insights. He will need to deliver a clutch performance and win, sitting 35 points below the elimination line.

RACING INSIGHTS’ PROJECTIONS FOR BASS PRO SHOPS NIGHT RACE

Racing Insights‘ advanced statistical formula incorporates current track, track type, recent performance, team data and pit-crew data to predict a projected winner and provide full race results. Updated on race day with practice and qualifying factored in.

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