Another week, another round of crucially important start/sit decisions. To help you make them, here’s a look at six players with bust potential in Week 7.
Something to keep in mind as you’re reading: a “fade” or “bust” designation doesn’t automatically mean you should sit a player, depending on the depth of the rest of your roster or available options on your waiver wire.
QB Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
As my esteemed colleague Andy Behrens points out, Goff has had a sneakily solid start to the 2024 NFL season, even if it hasn’t exactly translated to fantasy points. He leads all QBs (min. 100 dropbacks) with 8.9 YPA while ranking top-six in NFL passer rating and is coming off his second consecutive performance of 25 or more fantasy points, having finished as the QB4 just last week.
Despite his recent success, Goff has a challenging matchup in Week 7 against one of the league’s best passing defenses — the Minnesota Vikings. DC Brian Flores has put opposing QBs in a blender to this point in the season, and they’re returning off a bye that has allowed them plenty of time to prep for the game. The Vikings have allowed opposing passers the second-lowest EPA per dropback in the league (-0.27) per NFL Next Gen Stats while leading the league with 11 INTs despite having already had their bye.
Heat check 🔥 Goff should be on fantasy benches this week unless you’re in a two-QB or Superflex league.
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RB James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
This marks Conner’s second appearance on the bust list this season. The first go-around yielded a 3.0-point fantasy performance, so hopefully this recommendation is just as well advised. Conner has played well this season (albeit not quite as well as he did in 2023 — a career-best campaign) and has been perfectly useful for fantasy. With 19 or more touches in four of six games this year, he’s more than earned his “workhorse” tag, but even a heavy workload might not be enough against an above-average Los Angeles Chargers rushing defense in Week 7.
A matchup with the Chargers isn’t the only point of contention here. It’s also worth noting that Conner is coming off a game with puzzling usage, playing just 28% of offensive snaps in Week 6. He was seen on the sideline getting his ankles taped and appeared to be injured, but an eventual return to the field and comments from HC Jonathan Gannon that his absence was “game-script” related debunks that theory. It appears that Conner was benched in the second half after losing a fumble, as he didn’t have a single touch from that point forward, ceding work to Emari Demercado to close out the game.
Heat check 🔥 Consider Conner as more of an RB2/RB3 flex option than a “must-start” RB in Week 7.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers RBs
Yes, folks. I’m getting cute and fading the entire Buccaneers backfield just one week after Bucky Irving and Sean Tucker combined for 50.2 fantasy points filling in for Rachaad White, who was out with a foot injury.
I know, I know — you probably just used your waiver priority or a chunk of your FAB to acquire one of these guys at some point in the past two weeks. However, HC Todd Bowles has acknowledged there’s a three-headed monster brewing at the running back position there in Tampa, and that three-headed monster is set to face one of the most challenging RB matchups in the league.
The Baltimore Ravens are the league’s top rushing defense, allowing opposing rushers just 3.0 yards per carry, a 2.8% explosive run rate and 2.1 yards after contact per attempt — all league-low marks.
Heat check 🔥 I’ll be avoiding firing up any of the Buccaneers RBs unless I’m starved for options considering a challenging matchup and the uncertainty of how snaps will be divvied up, especially if Rachaad White does make a return.
WR George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers have been the subject of plenty of headlines this week as rumors indicate a possible QB change from Justin Fields to Russell Wilson is on the horizon. Though I don’t think the switch hurts the value of WR George Pickens rest-of-season — Wilson is an excellent deep passer, an area where Pickens excels — I do have plenty of concerns that this might not be his get-right game.
Through the first six weeks of the season, the Jets’ secondary continues to play lights-out, and as talented a wide receiver as Pickens is, he’ll have to contend as the defense’s focus in coverage this week. They’ve been excellent at forcing tight-window throws, with D.J. Reed at a 50% TW rate in coverage, Tony Adams at 42.9% and Sauce Gardner at 29%, per NFL Next Gen Stats. For context, the average tight-window throw percentage for cornerbacks and safeties who have played 100 or more coverage snaps this season is at 22.0%.
Heat check 🔥 The Jets have allowed just two WRs to score 15+ points in half-PPR scoring formats this year and not a single pass catcher more than 92 yards. Heck, they held Justin Jefferson to just 12.2 points on 14 targets. Consider Pickens more of a boom/bust flex option this week who happens to be more likely to bust.
WR Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers
It’s been an up-and-down season for newly-extended 49ers wideout Brandon Aiyuk — mostly down, in fact; he’s finished as the WR40 or lower in half-PPR scoring leagues in five of six games this season. Fantasy managers continue to start him, however, knowing that he’s probably continuing to shake off some rust from missing the offseason program and Kyle Shanahan is bound to scheme up a remedy sooner rather than later.
Aiyuk did show some progress in Week 5, too, reeling in 8-of-14 targets for 147 scoreless yards but quickly fell back down to earth with a 2-37-0 line against the Seahawks.
This week, the Niners get a rematch of Super Bowl LVIII up against the Kansas City Chiefs who have been proficient against WRs lined up on the perimeter this season, where Aiyuk has played 81.3% of snaps this year. Per Next Gen Stats, the Chiefs are giving up just -0.26 EPA per dropback (fourth-lowest) and a 30% success rate (lowest in the NFL) on targets to WRs lined up out wide this season with CB Trent McDuffie having his best year yet.
Heat check 🔥 You’re not sitting Aiyuk. After all, any presumed starter in a Kyle Shanahan offense should be in flex consideration on any given week. You should, however, temper expectations for the wideout. This projects as a better matchup for Deebo Samuel.
TE Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
Fantasy football managers were hopeful for a Dalton Kincaid breakout this season absent Stefon Diggs, but unfortunately, it hasn’t come to fruition just yet; he ranks as the TE15 in fantasy points per game heading into Week 7. Kincaid leads the Bills in both targets (30) and receptions (20), but Josh Allen’s willingness to spread the ball around has resulted in a lower concentration of targets than was originally hoped; five different players have earned 15 or more targets so far this season.
Now, the Bills will add another man into the mix having traded to acquire Amari Cooper from the Cleveland Browns — a bonafide WR1 bound to command a WR1 target share. The team isn’t yet certain if Amari Cooper will play in Week 7, but if he does, it will be another complication in Kincaid’s quest for a dominant target share. Complicating matters is a challenging matchup against the Tennessee Titans, who are allowing a league-low 3.8 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.
Heat check 🔥 Fire up Kincaid in your lineups — there are no locks at the position anyway. But beware that both the ceiling and floor may be lower than the average of late.
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