Canelo Alvarez and Terence Crawford will look to hit the jackpot as they face off at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on September 13 for Canelo’s status as the undisputed super middleweight champion.
The event, promoted by TKO’s Zuffa Boxing and Riyadh Season, features two of the best fighters in the sport today.
Canelo (63-2-2) has beaten a who’s who of boxers, from Miguel Cotto to Gennadiy Golovkin. It took him eleven months to become undisputed at 168, and he has recently become a two-time super middleweight champion.
Alvarez takes pride in his skills, heritage, and team. Working with renowned boxing trainer Eddy Reynoso, Team Canelo is focused on demonstrating who the superior boxer is.
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“A huge fight is coming between two of the world’s greatest powerhouses, Mexico and the United States. We’re going to show that the Mexican school is the best,” Reynoso told the LA Times.
Crawford (41-0) is a two-division undisputed champion and looks to hold all the gold in a third weight class. While he hasn’t been as active, that has never affected his mindset or skills.
After decimating Errol Spence Jr. in a dream fight for boxing fans, a driven Crawford looks to do the same in another one.
“It’s just something I was born with,” Crawford told ESPN. “I just think that being undersized my entire life made me have to work harder than other people who were blessed with natural talent, size, and things like that. “Losing is not an option. I have to win at all costs and no matter what.”
The Sporting News looks at the odds for this fight and makes a final prediction.
Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford betting odds
Per the FanDuel Sportsbook, Canelo Alvarez is the -180 favorite, while Terence Crawford is the +140 underdog.
Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford betting trends
Via the FanDuel Sportsbook:
- Canelo via KO/TKO: +370
- Canelo via decision: +120
- Crawford via KO/TKO: +900
- Crawford via decision: +190
- Draw: +1300
Canelo Alvarez vs. Terence Crawford odds, prediction
Who has the edge in this clash of titans?
Among active fighters, Canelo is eighth in +/- at 12.8. He ranks ninth in the current-pound-for-pound rankings in average total punches thrown per round (39.6) and eighth in punches landed (14.3). The Mexican fighter ranks fifth in total connect percentage at 36.1% (third on the P4P list) and has a 36.4% mark in power connecting.
Canelo lands the second-best total punches per round (39.6) and lands the third-least punches (14.3). His opponents do land the second-highest punches landed per round (11.1) and the sixth-highest (6.4).
Among the top fighters in the world, Crawford is right below Canelo in +/- with an 11.6 mark. He averages the sixth-most punches thrown (46.5) and landed (15.4) per round. Crawford’s opponents land the eighth-fewest punches per round (7.7).
How did both do in their last fight?
In a contest where William Scull didn’t press forward, Canelo and Scull threw a combined 445 punches, the fewest in a 12-round fight (via CompuBox). Canelo landed 5 of 13 punches per round, only landing double-digit strikes once.
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Against Israil Madrimov, Crawford threw 158 more punches and landed eleven more. “Bud” had a lower connect percentage, but landed 21 jabs and double-digit strikes four times.
Canelo has the age, size, and activity advantage. Will stats play a factor, or the basics?
The super middleweight champion has fought five times since 2023, while Crawford has competed twice. However, recent competition for Canelo is considered target practice. He outworked Jermell Charlo and embarrassed Jaime Munguia and Edgar Berlanga, despite both fights going the distance. William Scull never stood a chance, though Canelo looked off.
Crawford looked like a man possessed against Shawn Porter in what is now a viral video of him locking in to take his opponent down. While tested in a new division against Israil Madrimov, Crawford brutalized Errol Spence Jr. for nine rounds. He dropped Spence in the second and twice more in a brutal seventh.
Canelo’s size could play a factor, as Crawford is moving up several weight classes. The former’s activity, despite the competition level, could also come into play. His rock-solid chin is also something to keep an eye on, as even against the strongest level of competition, he has never been dropped.
An advantage for Crawford, even if he gains weight for this fight, is his movement and angling. He can use his superior footwork to make Canelo play catch-up as he turns him. Crawford is also one of the most skilled boxers out there, forcing his opponents back with the jab before finding an opening.
Normally, a Canelo opponent would be smart to go for the knockout, as Canelo has been known to be gifted by judges. However, if the fight does go the distance, Crawford can win by outworking Canelo. It’s not impossible, given his brilliant understanding of the Sweet Science.
While he won’t fight like Scull, Crawford could frustrate Canelo by moving back and attacking if Canelo makes a rare mistake. If his conditioning holds, Crawford’s patience and adaptability could see him become a three-division undisputed champion.
Sporting News prediction: Crawford via unanimous decision
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