We head into Week 3 of the college football season this week, and while all eyes are on Saturday’s loaded schedule, there are also some early games on Thursday and Friday. Bruce Marshall, longtime executive editor of The Gold Sheet and a SportsLine college football expert, breaks down the first four games of the Week 3 schedule. Interested in college football betting? You can benefit greatly from Marshall’s insights, as he entered Week 3 13-6-1 (+637) in his last 20 college football picks. Here’s the information he’s working with for Thursday and Friday’s games.
With travel distances reduced, and sometimes downright negligible, home-field edge isn’t always so clear-cut in some of these ACC Tobacco Road games, especially when we’re talking about Wake Forest, with its smaller (albeit nice) home venue in Winston-Salem. When the Demon Deacons are at home, it’s not uncommon for nearby ACC visitors to have a greater percentage of the crowd than at other conference locales. In this particular matchup, recent history suggests the home edge hasn’t been too meaningful, with the road side winning and covering each of the last two meetings for a series that has been a relative toss-up lately, with each side winning three of the last six clashes.
So, it will be nice if nothing else for the Wolfpack to have plenty of support from nearby Raleigh on Thursday night. The first 3-0 start since 2022 also beckons for NC State, having survived a couple of tests at Carter-Finley Stadium versus a pair of sides (East Carolina and Virginia) arguably a notch above this current Wake team. Lanky sophomore dual-threat QB CJ Bailey, who flashed big-play potential after taking over early last season, has been playing more within himself, displaying plenty of passing accuracy (70% thus far) while still being apt to be involved in big plays, such as rushing for a pair of scores and passing for another in last week’s match win vs. what looks an improved Virginia.
So far, OC Kurt Roper has stressed balance, running the ball better than 55% of the time, particularly with sophomore RB Hollywood Smothers, who sliced through the Cavs for 140 rushing yards in last Saturday’s exciting 35-31 win. Dave Doeren and Roper already know Bailey is still there and can switch to big-play mode when needed (as he did last week), though the Pack wisely seems to be concerned about avoiding giveaways, which have proved costly in the past.
While we know NC State has an extra gear offensively, ACC onlookers are still not sure what Jake Dickert has with his first Demon Deacons side, which features a slew of portal additions. So far, so good… well, sort of, as the Deacs are indeed 2-0, but cut it as close as possible in the opener (10-9) vs. lightly-regarded Kennesaw State before running up a 42-10 score on Western Carolina last week. Well-traveled QB Robby Ashford, who quietly surfaced in the offseason at Wake, is on his fourth school. The Deacs did unveil a big-play offense last week vs. the Catamounts, with Ashford and RB Demond Claiborne together accounting for four long TDs, but a real ACC defense should prove a tougher barrier to clear.
Bottom line? We still need some convincing on the Demon Deacons, who are about to start facing real opposition. We already know the Pack can handle foes at the same level, and likely a notch above, Dickert’s rebuilt Deacons.
Things are a bit quieter these days out of Boulder, as the two highest-profile Deion Sanders pupils have departed the CU program, including his son Shedeur. A chance to generate the early-season buzz of the past two seasons was squandered in the opening loss to Georgia Tech at Boulder, and just a few paid attention to FBS newcomer Delaware visiting Folsom Field a week ago. We haven’t even been seeing as many of those Aflac commercials with Deion and Nick Saban lately, either.
Whether Deion found an answer, or created a new dilemma for himself, remains to be seen after using three QBs last week vs. the Blue Hens. Liberty transfer Kaidon Salter, the presumed No. 1 after a decorated career with the Flames, handled duties in the opener vs. the Yellow Jackets. He split possessions vs. Delaware with Julian Lewis and Ryan Staub, though it was the third-string Staub who shined brightest vs. the Blue Hens, passing for 157 yards and two TDs and earning extra time on the field for his efforts. Sanders is remaining coy (at the moment) as to whom might start this week at Houston, though most onlookers are expecting it will be Staub, who outshined Salter and Lewis last week in the 31-7 win.
Oddsmakers, however, are not being swayed by the Sanders factor and need to see a bit more evidence from the Buffs, who finally go out on the road this week. There is also some well-earned respect in the marketplace for Houston and second-year head coach Willie Fritz, who had a bit of a bumpy go in his Cougar debut after proving a serial winner at every previous stop in his career, including some glorious years at Tulane. The new edition of the Cougs looks to have some bite, with former Texas A&M QB Connor Weigman off to a mistake-free start (four TD passes, zero picks in two starts) and UH cruising at 2-0 after last week’s beatdown of crosstown Rice, which had been generating a lot of local hype after winning its opener in upset fashion at Louisiana.
Fritz, however, always preaches balance, and his offense has been run-heavy (nearly 2:1), taking some pressure off of Weigman with RB Dean Connors leading a near 200 yards-per-game ground attack. Granted, Colorado’s multiple offensive looks present more variety than the Owls’ option last week, but the Fritz defense has looked good, only allowing 9 points through two games. For the time being, we expect some of Sanders’ past successes (including 10-2 ATS in the last 12 regular-season games, and 7-2 in his last nine as a dog) are going to be tougher to replicate this term. One trend that might endure, however, is CU’s streak of five straight Under results, as Fritz is likely to keep the clock moving with his lower-risk offense while Sanders navigates some tricky waters with his stable of QBs. It might be worth taking a lead with the Cougars while also respecting CU’s recent lower-scoring bent.
Oddsmakers seem to be picking their spots with various teams who have taken advantage of soft early slates to forge apparent breakthroughs. In the case of Arizona, a lot of observers were already predicting a recovery from last season’s desultory 4-8, a campaign that nearly cost new head coach Brent Brennan his job. Last year’s team paid no resemblance to the 10-game winner that Jedd Fisch fielded the previous autumn before moving to Washington. Brennan, who brought much of the staff from San Jose State with him after his hiring the previous winter, made some obligatory (and some believe necessary) coaching changes in the offseason, hoping to pull out of last season’s nosedive. After a 2-0 start, things are indeed looking up in Tucson, though a few weeks ago the thought of Arizona laying points, even at home, to well-regarded K-State seemed fanciful.
Well, the marketplace is speaking, and KSU (0-3 ATS) has lost a lot of the support it had in the offseason and into the Week 0 opener in Dublin vs. Iowa State. A bitter 24-21 loss to the Cyclones, however, seems to have sent Chris Klieman’s squad reeling, as K-State needed a last-minute score to avoid a home upset loss to FCS North Dakota before being unable to get the Army option off of the field for long enough to allow Avery Johnson and the KSU offense to do the necessary business last week in Manhattan.
A second 24-21 loss in three games has instead made K-State the nation’s most disappointing team. It hasn’t helped that expected workhorse RB Dylan Edwards has been out since early in the Iowa State game due to an ankle injury, but a bit more has been expected from Johnson, who aside from leading that late rally against the FCS Fighting Hawks has been posting some rather modest numbers as new OC Matt Wells continues to search for ways to juice the passing game. There is hope that Edwards returns soon, but it’s obvious that Kleiman’s team, which was boldly talking of making the 12-team playoff a few weeks ago, is going to have to adjust its aim to the Pop-Tarts Bowl if it can’t get out of Tucson with a win on Friday night.
How much, then, can be read into Arizona’s 2-0 start?
We suspect that like many teams in the country that have fattened up on lesser foes, we’ll find out soon enough. Tthe 40-6 opening win over Hawaii might impress more than the subsequent beatdown of Weber State, though most insiders are somewhat downplaying the win over the Rainbow Warriors, being that it came on the mainland, not in Honolulu. Plucky QB Noah Fifita, who impressed so much in his breakout freshman campaign for Fisch two years ago, is off to a fast start. Not only does he have six TD passes in two weeks, but he’s yet to throw a pick, important considering the latter was an area of emphasis by Brennan and new OC Seth Doege after last fall’s 12 interceptions. Pocket-sized Chattanooga transfer WR Javin Whatley, who caught more than 2,000 yards worth of passes for the Movin’ Mocs, thus far looks a legit big-play threat after snagging a pair of TDs last week (one an 85-yarder).
Still, K-State seems a significant jump in class from the first two Arizona foes, and the Tucson defense, which has allowed only three field goals in the first two games, figures to be stretched by Johnson a lot more than Hawaii and Weber State the past two weeks. Meanwhile, the new-look Doege offense now faces a legit Big 12 defense after being relatively unchallenged the first two games. Whatley’s early contributions aside, we’ll now start to see how much Fifita might miss the departed Tetairoa McMillan, as NFL first-round wideouts don’t grow on trees. KSU is running out of chances to get its season on course, and with urgency attached it would be no surprise for Kllieman’s team to get back on track. We’d rather wait until Arizona passes a real test before jumping on board any Tucson bandwagons.
What else could go wrong for the Bruins? A humbling beatdown at the Rose Bowl administered by visiting Utah in the opener was just the prelude to UCLA plumbing new depths for a once-proud program by losing at UNLV last week, falling behind 23-0 in the process. Though the loss to the Rebels wasn’t a complete surprise, it strikes at the psyche of veteran Westwood observers who are once again wondering where DeShaun Foster’s team might rate among the worst UCLA sides since World War II. We also heard such comparisons about this time a year ago when Foster’s first team stumbled to a 1-5 break from the gate before finding its footing at midseason.
Nonetheless, Foster has already lost his favored-son status among the boosters and by this point has probably exhausted slack cut to him after Foster’s rather late hire following Chip Kelly’s abrupt departure the preceding February. After last season’s struggles, a full offseason, a well-regarded new OC (Tino Sunseri from Indiana), and a chance to reload from the portal seemed to suggest Foster might be on the right course. Indeed, he might have been with App State transfer QB Joey Aguilar impressing in workouts and spring practice. But local product (Long Beach Poly) QB Nico Iamaleava became embroiled in a NIL dispute at Tennessee and was suddenly on the marketplace, and Foster made a knee-jerk move to lure Iamaleava at the expense of Aguilar, who quickly re-entered the portal and landed at Iamaleava’s former Tennessee.
Two games into the new season, Aguilar is far outperforming Iamaleava at their new locales following the “trade” of QBs, though glass-is-half-full UCLA backers believe Iamaleava might have started to get the hang of the Sunseri offense while leading a belated comeback effort last week in Las Vegas. Even if Iamaleava finds firmer footing in upcoming weeks, he doesn’t play defense, which has been the real glaring inadequacy the first two games — the Utes did basically whatever they pleased and UNLV moved easily for much of the game last Saturday. Allowing 37 PPG before even reaching the Big Ten part of the schedule is perhaps looming more ominous than any QB developments these days in Westwood.
Safe to say that if Foster hasn’t changed his phone number by now, he might have to if the Bruins can’t do better against the Lobos on Friday night. A consensus pick to finish last in the Mountain West, New Mexico has instead looked rather spunky in its first two games, hanging within 10 points of Michigan into the fourth quarter at Ann Arbor before outscoring what seems a better-than-advertised Idaho State (which scared UNLV in its opener) last week at Albuquerque.
There were concerns that the upgrades a year ago in what proved a one-season stopover for head coach Bronco Mendenhall (who moved on to Utah State) and the excitement caused by QB Devin Dampier (a rare 2000-yard passer/1000-yard rusher dynamo before transferring to Utah) would prove fleeting. Yet new head coach Jason Eck, who fielded combative teams at Idaho, has been able to forge a quick reload from the FCS ranks. Included are his Vandals QB Jack Layne, who has been steady enough, while RB Scottie Humphrey (via Montana State) is already gaining better than 6 yards per carry. Indeed, the Lobos have probably impressed a bit more than the Bruins, which makes this spread seem a bit dubious. With no covers dating back to last November, UCLA seems a very reluctant favorite, as Foster badly needs any sort of a win at the moment — not necessarily by this margin.
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