The college football season kicked into full gear with Week 1 last week, and there were some major games and finishes that shook up the odds boards for the National Championship betting market.
Texas was the preseason title favorite, but the Longhorns lost in Week 1 at Ohio State. They weren’t really penalized for that loss, though, as Texas is +750 to win the title now after opening at +550. Ohio State (+550), Georgia (+600) and Penn State (+650) are now the three top title favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook heading into Week 2.
Here, we break down the biggest movers and teams to bet after Week 1. All odds are courtesy of FanDuel.
Going up
Miami Hurricanes
Current odds: +2500
Odds before Week 1: +4100
When I posted my first National Championship odds article of the season back in August, I listed Miami as the top longshot bet at +4100. The reasoning was Miami has one of the most talented rosters in college football, and the Hurricanes’ odds would shorten significantly if they beat Notre Dame in the opener.
That scenario played out on Sunday after Miami’s 27-24 win over the Fighting Irish. The Hurricanes’ title odds were almost cut in half, going from +4100 to +2200. While I liked Miami at north of 40-1, I am not running to bet the Hurricanes at the current number. I believe Clemson is the best team in the ACC, and the Canes still have games against Florida, Florida State, Louisville and SMU.
Betting futures is all about value, and while I expect Miami to compete for a College Football Playoff spot, I would pass on betting the Hurricanes to win it all at +2200 right now.
LSU Tigers
Current odds: +1000
Odds before Week 1: +1600
LSU is another team I talked about during the summer. I thought there was value in betting the Tigers at +700 to win the SEC and +1700 to win the National Championship. Those odds have dropped to +550 and +1100 after the Tigers’ win over Clemson in Week 1.
I still believe LSU is worth a bet at its current number. This is the most talented team Brian Kelly has had in Baton Rouge, and the defense is much improved in coordinator Blake Baker’s second season. The victory over Clemson on the road will be one of the most impressive wins for any team this season.
The one negative with betting on LSU is the schedule. The Tigers still have games against Florida, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Alabama and Oklahoma. However, I think LSU can lose two of those games and still make the playoff.
The best number on the Tigers was before the season, although +1100 is still good odds for an LSU team I believe is a serious threat to win it all.
Going Down
Clemson Tigers
Current odds: +1700
Odds before Week 1: +900
The first bet I made for the 2025 college football season was Clemson +1600 to win the National Championship. Then, the love for Clemson got out of control over the summer. The Tigers saw their title odds drop to +900, which I thought was way too low.
After the loss to LSU, though, the Tigers’ odds are back to +1600. Now is the time to bet on Clemson. The Tigers will be favored in every game for the rest of the season until potentially in the finale at South Carolina. They don’t face Miami in the regular season and get Florida State and SMU at home.
Don’t overreact to one loss to a good LSU team. Clemson has a great chance to make the Playoff and we don’t know what teams will look like come December. Remember, Georgia lost its quarterback entering the Playoff last year, so Notre Dame caught a break. At this point, we’re just betting on teams that will get into the field, and I expect Clemson to be one of them.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Current odds: +1700
Odds before Week 1: +800
I learned a long time ago a key to betting futures is not overreacting to one game. However, Alabama is the one team coming off a loss I’m concerned about moving forward.
Alabama didn’t just lose to Florida State. The Tide got dominated physically on both sides of the ball. You might argue it is just one game, but that isn’t the case. Since the Crimson Tide defeated Georgia in that classic shootout last September, Alabama is 5-5. This is an average football team over the last 10 games. That’s not my opinion; it’s a fact.
I mentioned this summer when I predicted Alabama to miss the playoff that I wasn’t sure if the Tide had a quarterback yet. I’m still not sure. We know five-star recruit Keelon Russell is waiting in the wings, but is Ty Simpson the guy right now? It didn’t look like it against FSU.
Alabama still has to navigate through the SEC, and it can only afford to lose one more game. I have to pass on the Tide right now. I do know one thing, though: Kalen DeBoer better get it figured out fast. I heard a rumor Alabama fans aren’t very patient.
Team to bet now
Texas Longhorns
Current odds: +750
Odds before Week 1: +550
I had Texas ranked No. 1 heading into this year, and while Week 1 was a tough watch for Arch Manning and the offense, I’m not going to panic and penalize the Longhorns for losing a close game to Ohio State, especially on the road.
Texas will be a big favorite in each of its next three games before a road game at Florida ahead of the Red River Rivalry game against Oklahoma. I would make Texas a favorite in every game for the rest of 2025 besides against Georgia on Nov. 15. The Longhorns are still one of the most talented teams in the country, and yes, Manning struggled in his first career road start, but he doesn’t have to play the likes of Ohio State every single week moving forward.
I don’t see Texas losing again for the rest of September or at all in October. The Longhorns’ next potential loss wouldn’t be until November. I mentioned this summer that Texas is in a unique situation because I think the team can lose its two toughest games (OSU and Georgia) and still win the SEC and get one of the two top CFP seeds. I’d take a shot on Texas at +750. I think these are the best odds we will get all season on the Longhorns.
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