College Football Playoff Rankings projection: Ohio State, LSU, Miami, Penn State in line for first-round byes

Brian Kelly and LSU went all in this offseason, and so far, the returns are quite handsome for the Tigers. The program’s Week 1 win at Clemson puts LSU on the map nationally as a worthy College Football Playoff frontrunner with strength on both sides of the football under their fourth-year coach. Kelly all but guaranteed over the summer that his Tigers would conquer the “other” Death Valley, and that’s what happened thanks to a stifling defensive effort in the second half backed by precision passing from Heisman Trophy candidate Garrett Nussmeier.

LSU is co-leader this week with Ohio State after its momentum-changing win over Texas in our updated College Football Playoff seed projection approaching Week 2. A straight-seeding model has been adopted for 2025, which means there’s still five auto-qualifiers and seven at-large selections, but teams do not have to be designated as conference champions to receive one of the coveted first-round byes.

If your resume shines at season’s end with several quality wins, your shot at getting one of those top four seeds is high.

Projected top 12 College Football Playoff Rankings

1. Ohio State Buckeyes 

Projected final record: 12-1 (Big Ten champions)

Ryan Day did it again. Much of the discourse heading into Saturday’s win over then-No. 1 Texas was how Ohio State would respond to new starters on defense with first-year coordinator Matt Patricia as Arch Manning and the high-powered Longhorns arrived into town. Many of those same doubters wondered how the Buckeyes would respond last season after the loss to Michigan. And Day removed his belt for several lashes on both accounts. This team has the top-end talent to go unbeaten, but we’re expecting the only loss to come in Big Ten play, whether that’s at Penn State or in an upset scenario.

2. LSU Tigers

Projected final record: 12-1 (SEC champions)

The dust has settled in the SEC, and not to overreact, but LSU’s path to a top four seed in the playoff doesn’t look as insurmountable as it once did based on scheduling. Alabama’s closer to a seven-win team than a 10-win squad, and the Tigers are going to be favored in — at least — 10 of 11 matchups the rest of the way following Saturday night’s huge win at Clemson. The only regular-season loss for LSU comes in a stunner against Ole Miss, Texas A&M or Oklahoma.

3. Miami Hurricanes

Projected final record: 12-1 (ACC champions)

Anchored by a top-end quarterback and perhaps the fiercest offensive line in college football this season, Miami is the real deal. The Hurricanes were included in our preseason playoff projection as the ACC’s second team in, but they’ve moved ahead of Clemson now and it may take awhile before that changes. The only projected loss here the rest of the way for Miami is the home game with Florida in a few weeks. The Hurricanes should roll through conference play.

4. Penn State Nittany Lions

Projected final record: 12-1 (at-large selection)

The losing skid to Ohio State will come to an end during the regular season for James Franklin, but forced to play the Buckeyes again in Indianapolis during the final weekend before playoff selections will force the committee’s hand. An unbeaten regular season should lock up a top four spot for the Nittany Lions, but the top seed will go to Ohio State after winning the rematch for a conference title.

Projected final record: 11-1 (at-large selection)

Quietly, this could be what Kirby Smart wants this season — a chance to reach the playoff without having to play an extra game in December so he can watch from home and start postseason prep. Joking here, of course. The defending SEC champion expects to get back. But we think a November loss in Athens to Texas could give the Longhorns a head-to-head tiebreaker and keep the Bulldogs home during conference title weekend with one loss. When you’ve already solidified a playoff spot, would a lone blemish be that big of a deal? See, Ohio State in 2024.

Projected final record: 11-1 (at-large selection)

Keep an eye on Notre Dame’s next matchup against Texas A&M. That’s as close to a must-win as they come for the Fighting Irish following Sunday night’s loss to Miami. We’re imagining Notre Dame going down a similar path to the playoff as last season, getting past an early season hiccup to run the table against inferior competition. However, if the Fighting Irish start the season 0-2, there are bigger issues than worrying about playoff chances.

7. Texas Longhorns

Projected final record: 11-2 (at-large selection)

Another league where tiebreaker scenarios will come into play to determine who faces LSU at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, the SEC will put four teams in the 12-team bracket. It would be unwise to sell your Arch Manning stock at this point despite Saturday’s showing at Ohio State. In fact, go ahead and buy some more and lower your DCA while his options are in the red. In this projected scenario, the Longhorns win out, but fall to LSU in the SEC title game.

Projected final record: 11-1, at-large selection

Before we get into the weeds with way-too-early Big Ten title game tiebreakers, just know we’re projecting the Ducks to fall at Penn State in a couple of weeks during a whiteout in Happy Valley. Eleven wins would be a playoff lock for Dan Lanning, but would Oregon be tested? For the second straight campaign, the Ducks have been gifted a favorable slate by Big Ten standards with Indiana and USC being the only other two opponents of note after Penn State.

9. Clemson Tigers

Projected final record: 11-2, at-large selection

Could Dabo Swinney’s team win their next 11 games before falling to Miami in the conference championship? It’s plausible. That LSU defense is one of the nastiest the Tigers will play this fall and the only other contests with nationally ranked teams come against SMU and South Carolina. With Saturday night’s loss to LSU, Clemson has now lost its last four against SEC competition.

Projected final record: 10-3 (Big 12 champion)

The injury to quarterback Behren Morton is something to monitor this month after the veteran threw four touchdowns during a 60-point win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff before exiting in the second quarter. Morton took a shot to his knee on a sack and came up limping before sitting the second half. There’s depth behind him for the Red Raiders, but Morton’s an integral leader on this team and part of the reason Texas Tech is our projected Big 12 champion … right now.

11. Florida Gators

Projected final record: 9-3, at-large selection

The newest “last team in” is Florida, vying to be the first three-loss, non-conference champion to reach the playoff field. Here’s how it happens, per our Week 2 projections: the Gators lose to LSU, Texas and Georgia but grab quality wins against Miami, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Florida State. That should be more than enough to warrant a bid considering the three teams Florida would’ve lost to are all in the playoff.

Projected final record: 12-1 (Group of Six champion)

We know Boise State is likely not heading back to the playoff without Ashton Jeanty. However, the Group of Six race is wide open beyond the Broncos with the likely chosen squad coming from the American. USF’s destruction of Boise State was an eye-opener that kicked off a wild opening weekend. Tulane was led by former BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff’s legs, and the Green Wave will be a tough out under Jon Sumrall.

Coinciding with this week’s updated bowl projections, the only notable change in our playoff bracket is seeding for Notre Dame and Georgia. Should both teams finish with one loss, the selection committee would likely view the Bulldogs more favorably, thus altering our predictions.

Projected CFP first-round games

• No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Georgia (winner plays No. 4 Penn State)
• No. 11 Florida at No. 6 Notre Dame (winner plays No. 3 Miami)
• No. 10 Texas Tech at No. 7 Texas (winner plays No. 2 LSU)
• No. 9 Clemson at No. 8 Oregon (winner plays No. 1 Ohio State)

These potential campus site first-round matchups would be ratings bonanzas given the stakes and teams involved. And, surprisingly, we wouldn’t get a single regular-season rematch during the playoff’s first weekend.

Big 12 logjam

Iowa State. Utah. Arizona State. Texas Tech. Kansas. Good luck determining who will win the wide-open Big 12 after Week 1. Suffice to say Kansas State has a long way to go in bolstering its product on the field after falling to the Cyclones in Dublin, Ireland, before nearly suffering a second loss to North Dakota over the weekend, but the rest of the league has impressed. We’re not going to see an unblemished conference champion this season, and it’s more likely the last team standing will have multiple losses before the committee’s final vote.

South Carolina, Oklahoma teams to watch

The Gamecocks, Sooners and Auburn impressed during Week 1, while Alabama did not. We’ve dropped the Crimson Tide out of the projected top 12 and even behind several others in the SEC’s playoff pecking order until Kalen DeBoer figures out it takes strength at the line of scrimmage to win big in one of the nation’s most competitive leagues. LaNorris Sellers looked like a Heisman finalist against Virginia Tech, while John Mateer and Jackson Arnold each passed their first test with exemplary marks as transfer starters for Brent Venables and Hugh Freeze.