As college football fans celebrated one of the biggest opening weekends in the modern era, there was always a lingering understanding that getting these big-time clashes would lead to some big changes at the top of the rankings. Because, after all, if top-10 teams are going to be playing each other, that means top-10 teams are taking losses. With some of the upsets added on top, we ended up making college football history.
With No. 1 Texas, No. 4 Clemson, No. 6 Notre Dame and No. 8 Alabama all going down, college football just saw four top-10 teams lose on opening weekend for the first time in the AP poll era (since 1936). Not all of those of those teams are destined to fall too far in the rankings given the quality of their opponents and the competitiveness of the contests, but AP voters will not leave those teams stagnant in their positions on the ballot after losing. Each of those spots is up for grabs as a team moves down, and that’s going to provide a lot of shake up throughout the rankings.
The biggest debate starts at the top, where Texas is no longer No. 1 and voters must decide between No. 2 Penn State and No. 3 Ohio State for the top spot. The Nittany Lions received 23 first-place votes in the preseason poll compared to the Buckeyes’ 11 first-place votes, and they even challenged Texas for the No. 1 spot. But since Ohio State — the team with the second-best odds currently to win the College Football Playoff, per FanDuel Sportsbook — was the team that took down Arch Manning and the Longhorns, it’s very possible that Ohio State will get some of those 25 first-place votes that went to the Longhorns in the preseason. Some AP voters have already voiced their decision to put Ohio State at No. 1 after not having the Buckeyes in the top spot before, and a tidal wave of momentum seems to be building behind the reigning national champions.
But that small sample size could be misrepresenting a silent majority that still sees Penn State, a team that thrashed Nevada on Saturday, as the team most deserving of moving up in the rankings. But it’s undoubtedly those two teams for the top two spots, and each will have a significant collection of first-place votes. Our projection is Ohio State, but the margin will be very narrow.
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After that it will be rearranging the deck chairs for the ranked teams who probably won’t get penalized for losing to quality competition. It could work both ways for No. 8 Alabama, of course, as the Crimson Tide will certainly tumble but could also benefit from renewed belief in Florida State.
With all the voting points, results and margins considered, here’s how we think the new AP Top 25 will look on Tuesday.
1. Ohio State (Previous — No. 3): The argument for the Buckeyes starts with the fact that any hesitation about their stock had to do with all the talent that was lost off last year’s national title team. After putting the clamps on Manning and top-ranked Texas, voters see that a standard remains, even if the players have changed.
2. Penn State (2): The Nittany Lions took care of business in a 46-11 thrashing of Nevada in Week 1, so there’s no reason to dock James Franklin’s team for meeting expectations. The battle for No. 1 will be tight, and Penn State did have a stronger showing in the AP poll than the Coaches Poll, but again the impact of Ohio State winning the biggest game of the day could lead to the Nittany Lions getting left in their position at No. 2.
3. LSU (9): You give credit for beating Clemson at home under the lights, as well as being able to shed narratives about failing to win season openers. With a re-tooled defense, LSU has all the pieces to contend for an SEC championship and more in 2025.
4. Texas (1): There is a lot of frustration about Texas’ inability to get anything going on offense until the fourth quarter, but the Longhorns only gave up 14 points and had a chance to tie the game late on the road against the reigning national champions. There is plenty to work on in order to meet the expectations of No. 1, but the Longhorns will still be slotted as a top-five team.
5. Georgia (5): Don’t expect much of a change after Georgia’s 45-7 win against Marshall. There was a pretty clear cut-off in the voting points to suggest Georgia has a strong standing as a top-five team, though they’ll have a contender charging for that No. 5 spot.
6. Miami (10): There is a necessary move up coming for Mario Cristobal’s group after beating Notre Dame on Sunday night. The range for Miami’s landing spot is somewhere between No. 5 and No. 8, and our projection based on the voting points is they are knocking on the door of the top five, taking over the spot previously held by the Fighting Irish.
7. Oregon (7): The Ducks left a strong impression on Montana State, overwhelming the FCS power with their speed and athleticism in a 59-13 win. We’re guessing AP voters didn’t take as much notice to Dante Moore’s debut as the starting quarterback, so movement is less likely, but this is a team to track moving forward.
8. Notre Dame (6): There was such a stark cutoff in the voting points from LSU at No. 9 (1,174 points) to Miami at No. 10 (889) and then another drop down to Arizona State (791), so we’re projecting a pretty high floor for some of the losses. The Fighting Irish lost by three points on the road to another top-10 team, so there’s no reason to overreact too much to the defeat.
9. Clemson (4): The quality Clemson showed on Saturday night against LSU is bringing a lot of doubt into the Tigers’ standing as one of the four or five best teams in the country. That said, it’s still a team loaded with talent that only lost to LSU by seven points. Even at home, that’s not a result worth getting bounced from the top tier of the rankings.
10. Arizona State (11): No major changes for Arizona State after its FCS opener, which ended up being a 38-19 win against Northern Arizona. The Sun Devils will have a much more appropriate test for voters in Week 2 with a date against Mississippi State.
11. Illinois (12): Like Arizona State, it’s hard to imagine much of a reaction in either direction for the Fighting Illini following their win against Western Illinois. Next up will provide a much more impactful data point as Illinois will hit the road to play a Duke team that won nine games in 2024.
12. South Carolina (13): There is an argument for South Carolina to move up ahead of Arizona State and Illinois based on the quality of a double-digit win against Virginia Tech compared to FCS victories. But since the Gamecocks were much closer to Michigan in the preseason poll than Illinois, we’re going to project this stretch of the rankings stays in order.
13. Michigan (14): The Bryce Underwood era began with some highlights that made it very clear why he was the No. 1 player in the country coming out of high school and widely considered one of the best quarterback prospects of the last decade. But while the Wolverines’ top-15 bonafides rested on Underwood being the real deal, beating New Mexico 34-17 won’t spark a big jump up in the rankings.
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14. Florida (15): The Gators played a lower-tier FCS team and put together a performance that was representative and of the distinct talent gap between Florida and Long Island. In a run of ranked teams vs. FCS results, this is another one that won’t move the voters one way or the other.
15. SMU (16): No major rankings adjustment for SMU after a 42-13 romp of FCS East Texas A&M.
16. Oklahoma (18): The debut of John Mateer produced some impressive results, as the former Washington State quarterback threw for 392 yards and totaled four touchdowns (three passing, one rushing) in a lopsided win against Illinois State.
17. Florida State (NR): It’s entirely possible that No. 17 is too low for Florida State, which did get enough attention from the AP voters in the preseason poll to finish 40th in voting points. The ceiling for Florida State’s jump after beating Alabama 31-17 could be as high as No. 13 or No. 14, but we’re projecting the response is more negative for the Crimson Tide than a launch pad into the top 10 for FSU.
18. Texas A&M (19): The Aggies did get some push from UTSA early on but showcased too much explosive talent to ever be threatened by their in-state foe from the American. Texas A&M got four touchdowns from quarterback Marcel Reed and pulled away from a 42-24 win.
19. Indiana (20): The Hoosiers didn’t blow out ODU in the same manner as they did other nonconference opponents during last season’s 10-0 start, but there was never really a threat of upset in Indiana’s 27-14 season-opening win.
20. Ole Miss (21): Sun rises, sun sets and Lane Kiffin loves letting his teams run up the score in early season nonconference play. Ole Miss carried a 42-7 lead into the fourth quarter and proceeded to score three more touchdowns to round out a 63-7 rout of Georgia State.
21. Alabama (8): The only certainty is that Alabama will drop behind Florida State, which will be moving into the top 25. Those two teams should be paired together, and here our projection is a fall of even a few more spots than that after the two-touchdown loss as a two-touchdown favorite. Alabama is far too talented to be placed outside the top 25, but there will be a drastic rankings punishment for the stunning loss.
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22. Iowa State (22): The Cyclones have gotten off to a strong start, following up the Dublin, Ireland, win against Kansas State with a no-nonsense blowout of South Dakota. A 55-7 win against an FCS opponent isn’t going to spark a big move up, but look for this to be a team with plenty of upward mobility if they continue to stack wins.
23. Tennessee (24): No Nico? No problem. Tennessee’s offense put up 45 points with quarterback Joey Aguilar leading the charge, and the Vols very much looked the part of a ranked team in their double-digit win against Syracuse in Atlanta.
24. Texas Tech (23): No major adjustment after a 67-7 throttling of Arkansas Pine-Bluff. With Kent State and Oregon State coming up as the next two opponents, it might be a while before Texas Tech gets an opponent that could spark a big move up in the rankings.
25. Utah (NR): If voters stayed up to watch Utah’s dismantling of UCLA late night on Saturday, they might slot the Utes even higher, but we’re betting there’s too much poll traffic ahead and not enough active viewers to make a splash anywhere higher than the 20s.
Projected to drop out: No. 17 Kansas State, No. 25 Boise State
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